Starmer's vision quest

[Pross]

Second declared constituency has gone to a 3-3 draw between Reform and PC. Hard to judge in detail due to the boundaries being redrawn but the closest equivalent was arguably a Tory seat (very close last time and has flipped Tory / Labour in the past)

 

[Pross]

Third has also gone 3-3. That would have been rock solid Labour in the past (Neu Bevan territory) although they did lose it in 2006 due to Labour enforcing an all-woman shortlist against local wishes.

 

[Pross]

Balance is now slightly in the leftie coalition favour as Cardiff Penarth get 3 PC, 1 Labour, 1 Green and 1 Reform. Need a few more of those to keep Reform out of control.

 

[secretsqirrel]

I think that whatever system was used Labour were going to take a hammering. As ever, people are voting based on national issues that aren’t under the control of the people they are voting for. That said, I think only one constituency has been declared (which happens to be mine) and it has ended up a fairly even split 2 Reform, 2 PC, 1 Labour and 1 Tory. Both former constituencies in the merged one would have been solid Labour in the past but the prediction I saw before yesterday was for there to be 3 Reform so I think a fair chunk of Labour has gone to PC instead (I wouldn’t class them as extreme).

Agreed, PC pulling slightly ahead just now and most likely to get support from the other parties excluding the Tories.
Thats after 30 of 96 seats.

 

[Pross]

Agreed, PC pulling slightly ahead just now and most likely to get support from the other parties excluding the Tories.
Thats after 30 of 96 seats.

Yeah with 5 Constituencies declared it’s 17-13 seats in favour of a centre left coalition led by PC over Reform / Tory. Reform will no doubt be demanding it reverts to FPTP if it ends in that kind of split!

 

[Blazing Saddles]

In my constituency, PC’s 3 seats claimed 42% of the votes, compared to Reform’s 34% who also won 3 seats.
This was a real Labour stronghold and their percentage of the vote was just 11%. Was Donald Trump standing as a Labour candidate?

 

[secretsqirrel]

My constituency has 3 PC, and 1 each for Lab, Reform and Green. Which doesn’t surprise me I think Labour faithfuls have mostly gone to PC.

 

[BoldonLad]

Sunderland. Predictably, Labour just about wiped out, Reform win big (or, bigly, as Donald would say). There may be a message there, if Starmer is listening. 😊

 

[briantrumpet]

Is it looking like the refuge for disenchanted Labour voters in both Scotland and Wales are the nationalists?

 

[briantrumpet]

Sunderland. Predictably, Labour just about wiped out, Reform win big (or, bigly, as Donald would say). There may be a message there, if Starmer is listening. 😊

Not that Starmer will listen, but it's a waste of time trying to persuade Reform voters to vote Labour, as they won't, and you'll only piss off your progressive supporters, as well as amplifying the xenophobic messaging of Reform.

 

[TailWindHome]

Nationalist leaders in NI, Scotland & Wales?

 

[briantrumpet]

Nationalist leaders in NI, Scotland & Wales?

Maybe that's the easiest/logical choice if you know Labour is sunk, and you want the least-worst to beat Reform. I'd probably do the same, even though I'm as far away from a nationalist as it's possible to get.

 

[Blazing Saddles]

Nationalist leaders in NI, Scotland & Wales?

I guess that Reform will be building all their concentration ca…….sorry, detention centres for illegal immigrants in Berwick upon Tweed.

 

[Xipe Totec]

I guess that Reform will be building all their concentration ca…….sorry, detention centres for illegal immigrants in Berwick upon Tweed.

Not necessarily. Farage has already stated he'll use Westminster to override the Scottish Govt so he can put them in Scotland if when Reform lose north of the border.

 

[briantrumpet]

This is the Mahmood Dilemma: she's been unleashed to try to attract people who will never vote for Labour, and the relish and swagger with which she's undertaken her task has really pissed off a lot of people who might have done. They've gone elsewhere, having followed the instruction to "Fuck off".

More widely, thee fact that Starmer doesn't recognise the problem as electoral kryptonite suggests not only that his political nous is completely lacking, but he hasn't really got any core beliefs. That's not going to win a general election.