Trump redux - predictions?

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Ian H

Legendary Member
Two different viewpoints:-

https://responsiblestatecraft.org/zelensky/
The sort of clash that occurred between President Trump and Vice President Vance and President Zelensky is common enough between leaders in private. As a public spectacle however it is almost unprecedented, and certainly in the surroundings of the White House. There was fault on both sides for the way things got out of hand; but Zelensky was the more foolish participant, because (as Trump pointed out) he is the one in the weak position...

https://www.thedailybeast.com/russi...mbush-of-zelensky/?via=desktop&source=twitter
The disgraceful spectacle of President Donald Trump and Vice President J.D. Vance taking turns insulting the President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky during a White House meeting on Friday was a welcome sight for pro-Kremlin propagandists in Moscow. They’ve described it as an ambush, designed as a way for America to part ways with Ukraine—and they couldn’t be happier with the way this setup played out....
 

stowie

Well-Known Member
Time for Starmer to realise he can't spend the next 4 years trying to sit on the fence tiptoeing around issues waiting and hoping he/UK isn't in the firing line for the next Trumpty tantrum (or the one after that or the one after that ...). Time to cut our losses, let the US go it's way with Putin and we get on with allies in Europe and other countries who want to work together for mutual benefit (without US zero sum games).

Ian

There is nothing that would please me more than Starmer having a second meeting in the Oval office with Trump in front of the world's cameras, sticking up his middle finger and shouting "Trump! C*nt! Everyone knows you are a Russian cuck because Putin has your pee-pee sex tape!". Then walking out whilst blowing raspberries in his general direction.

However

NATO countries will require US support (intelligence, equipment) at the least if NATO isn't going to become dysfunctional. So Starmer and the UK could be a useful bridge between the other European nations and Trump. Starmer has the temperament and the UK has the distance of being outside the EU and a third country (maybe I have found the first Brexit benefit?).
UK is also the only European member of Five-Eyes which could give some leverage even amongst lunatic headbangers like Vance. Although how long this agreement lasts if the other members think any shared intelligence finds its way to Red Square is debatable.

Also, the EU and NATO have some big problems of their own with all of this debacle. Whilst nearly all NATO countries have sided publicly with Zelenski today and he was greeted very warmly outside Downing Street, there is the outlier of Hungary for example who seem to be pushing the Trump narrative. Italy is another - even within the government there is a split. Surprisingly the other potential concern of Turkey seems to have come out strongly in support of Zelensky. This is important - Turkey has the second largest active military personnel and a strategic location. There will be a number of reasons for Erdogan's stance including leverage for moving towards EU integration (EU membership is very unlikely) plus they really don't want Russia to obtain strategic Black Sea footholds in the long term with Crimea and surrounding Ukranian territory.

Anyway, this is a roundabout way of saying that Starmer might be looked at as the go-between and this will have implications on public announcements. Or Starmer is terrified of tariffs and he is trying to play both sides. I hope it is the former.
 

Psamathe

Well-Known Member
However

NATO countries will require US support (intelligence, equipment) at the least if NATO isn't going to become dysfunctional. So Starmer and the UK could be a useful bridge between the other European nations and Trump. Starmer has the temperament ..
My current thoughts are thatTrump also hates the EU (within the last few days he's been coming out with how the EU was only formed to shaft the US). He'll realise pretty quickly that Starmer is manipulating for the benefit of the EU and UK will be lumped back into the EU (in Trump's mind).

The "Rest is Politics" (either Steward/Campbell or the US version) was saying "five eyes" is possibly/probably already unreliable in that some intelligence from US may not be being passed on (eg in relation to Russia). But that was a hypothesis not reported occurrence.

nb my views are developing as others comment and new events & reports emerge so I must make that clear as I may post differently over time. To me discussion is useful as it raises contrary aspects and I certainly have no shame in developing my opinions.

Ian
 

monkers

Squire
The Council of Europe is a bigger IGO than the EU. Just maybe a sufficient number of non-EU European countries will have sufficient concern that the Council of Europe takes on the mantle instead. This will then more formally include the UK.
 

Beebo

Guru
The most amusing aspect is that Farage has long been against an European army.
But it will be his best mate Trump who makes it come about.
No one would have predicted that.
 

icowden

Squire
Trump has said the USA wants paying back for it's financial backing.
Those lovely EU countries have loan agreements with Ukraine
Why shouldnt USA get it's money back
It isn't owed any. That's why. The deal was that Ukraine would give up its nuclear weapons in return for protection from Russia by America.
That was the deal. The orange turnip has backed out of it.

The arms being supplied will cost the US more to dispose of than to give away to Ukraine. It's a purely selfish move from Trump who has clearly demonstrated that America is now an ally of Russia.
 

multitool

Guest
36 hours after the Oval Office charade several things are becoming clearer.

The row was orchestrated. Trump wanted Zelensky to surrender to his demands. Zelensky said no because he realised he would, in effect, be giving his country to Putin. Trump would have looked silly because he said he could end the war in 24 hours.

The rest of NATO realise that Trump’s America is a malignant partner who are siding with a common enemy. There will a desperate scramble to reorganise their capabilities without the unreliable partner. This puts all sorts of arrangements, like 5 eyes, in great jeopardy.

The UK now looks incredibly isolated and in danger from Trump....why? Because of Brexit. It could be Britain next that Trump tries to extort because we are economically exposed, in the way that he tried to extort Zelensky.

Brexit has removed us from the very things we need because of our over reliance on America. We removed ourselves from EU plans for an integration of military forces and we removed ourselves from plans to create a European GPS system.

Farage and the idiot Brexiters have put the UK in a desperately perilous position with a real existential threat. Exactly as we said they would. This is why Farage has gone to ground.

Putin must be laughing his head off.
 

Beebo

Guru
It isn't owed any. That's why. The deal was that Ukraine would give up its nuclear weapons in return for protection from Russia by America.
That was the deal. The orange turnip has backed out of it.

The arms being supplied will cost the US more to dispose of than to give away to Ukraine. It's a purely selfish move from Trump who has clearly demonstrated that America is now an ally of Russia.

It’s even worse than that.
They send second hand and obsolete stuff to Ukraine and bill them for new stuff back at home. So the value of the equipment is over stated too.
 

AndyRM

Elder Goth

CXRAndy

Über Member
Norwegian fuel company Haltbakk Bunkers announces it is to cease supplying fuel to US Military Forces and US ships in Norwegian ports over recent US policy towards Ukraine.

In a strongly worded statement they criticised the recent televised event, referring to it as "the biggest shitshow ever presented live on TV".

https://ukdefencejournal.org.uk/norwegian-fuel-supplier-refuses-u-s-warships-over-ukraine/

Norway Defense Minister Tore Sandvik confirmed Norway will continue supply to U.S. Military
And refuted earlier report of refusing to refuel US submarine is not in line with Government policy
 
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