War with Russia

[Pinno718]

I wonder/hope that the same influence will be blocking Putin from anything nuclear.

But as Putin gets more and more desperate I do worry that at some point it's end of Putin vs ignoring Chinese constraints and Putin will chose self-preservation.

Self preservation - stuck in a bunker, all around is destruction and nothing of any value left to surface for?

Unless he goes yeehaw Dr Strangeglove style strapped to an ICBM.

 

[Psamathe]

Self preservation - stuck in a bunker, all around is destruction and nothing of any value left to surface for?

My thoughts were along the lines of alive but stuck in a bunker, all around is destruction and nothing of any value left to surface for. vs on the ground with a 10 story vacant balcony directly above having discovered he can't fly.

 

[First Aspect]

It's a bit deeper than don't you think?
A peace deal now would mean failure of the SMO and the whole economy is geared up for the war in an almost irreversible way. The only economically palatable outcome is victory.

The quotative easing follows an odd process in Russia - the money printed will go to the banks so that the banks can buy government bonds... (?!) It's the only way they can spend it.

https://www.reuters.com/article/wor...itative-easing-may-sow-trouble-idUSBRE8AL0F7/

Not sure I fully understand - or rather I am sure I don't fully understand - but it sounds rather similar to QE here. Its a money supply via the banks. The implications for the Russian economy seem to be inflationary, while at the same time they are cranking up interest rates and increasing the cost of borrowing. This is going to lead to stagflation isn't it? I also don't understand why the banks are over leveraged. If QE is needed to stimulate lending, doesn't poor bank liquidity infer they've been doing too much lending? I also don't know if simply printing money to improve their liquidity is a good idea. I am assuming not, but it would be interesting to hear from someone more economically literate to put some of this into context.

 

[Pinno718]

Not sure I fully understand - or rather I am sure I don't fully understand - but it sounds rather similar to QE here. Its a money supply via the banks. The implications for the Russian economy seem to be inflationary, while at the same time they are cranking up interest rates and increasing the cost of borrowing. This is going to lead to stagflation isn't it? I also don't understand why the banks are over leveraged. If QE is needed to stimulate lending, doesn't poor bank liquidity infer they've been doing too much lending? I also don't know if simply printing money to improve their liquidity is a good idea. I am assuming not, but it would be interesting to hear from someone more economically literate to put some of this into context.

This seems to explain things a bit more but as an economic layman, i'm none the wiser.
Inflation is already above state ambitions @12.1% before the current QE.

 

[briantrumpet]

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/2097246426551955493.html

 

[Pinno718]

View attachment 17139

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/2097246426551955493.html

Though meaningless. I think the Russians are content with holding the frontline whilst ramping up the missiles launched into Ukraine as the land offensive has proved to be futile for them.
Funny but Putin claimed to have liberated x and y and z and a Ukrainian army officers filmed himself wandering about these towns freely. Is Putin living in an FSO fed bubble or is he simply trying to bolster/justify the SMO as propaganda?
Personally, I think it's the latter.

 

[Psamathe]

Funny but Putin claimed to have liberated x and y and z and a Ukrainian army officers filmed himself wandering about these towns freely. Is Putin living in an FSO fed bubble or is he simply trying to bolster/justify the SMO as propaganda?
Personally, I think it's the latter.

Or, given what happens to Russian senior military who do not achieve what the leadership expects, is Putin being told what is really happening or are those reporting telling Putin what they think he wants to hear (and at the same time, staying away from balconies)?

 

[Pblakeney]

Though meaningless. I think the Russians are content with holding the frontline whilst ramping up the missiles launched into Ukraine as the land offensive has proved to be futile for them.
Funny but Putin claimed to have liberated x and y and z and a Ukrainian army officers filmed himself wandering about these towns freely. Is Putin living in an FSO fed bubble or is he simply trying to bolster/justify the SMO as propaganda?
Personally, I think it's the latter.

Both.

 

[Pinno718]

• Ukraine hits 2 gas production facilities in Siberia, 3000km's from Ukraine in new range capability
• Ukraine strikes Naval base and oil refinery in Novorossiysk further cementing the port blockade. And crucially, they struck the 'Admiral Essen', a missile launching vessel.
• Over 400 drones sent into Russia overnight (Sep 9 to 10)
• Sochi's port struck again as Ukraine is working on systematically blocking ports on the Black Sea, Sea of Azov and now the Caspian sea. Grain exports from these ports are down by 90%.
• 34 energy nodes in Crimea Struck in September already which brings the total to 374
• Wildberries seek help from the Russian govt. whilst still selling merchandise but not paying the vendors.
• Police are now being used to recruit men for mobilisation, arresting them for minor offences and then forcing them to sign up. Sometimes being forced to drink alcohol or get beaten up. Very minor offences like a broken indicator light. Police officers are incentivised by being offered $5700 per man.
• Ukrainian war commentator cites London, Hamburg, Berlin in WW2 where both sides relentlessly struck and killed civilians in bombing campaigns. In all cases, the civilians rallied around there leaders and had no effect on the frontline which underlines the fact cannot win militarily in his opinion.
• Zelensky approaches allies to provide Patriot interceptor missiles ahead of winter as direct supplies from US manufacturers delivery on previous orders won't arrive until next year. Germany has agreed.
• Norway seizes Russian ship in Svalbard holding it for Ukraine and sends 69 Russian sailors home.

 

[farfromtheland]

• Police are now being used to recruit men for mobilisation, arresting them for minor offences and then forcing them to sign up. Sometimes being forced to drink alcohol or get beaten up. Very minor offences like a broken indicator light. Police officers are incentivised by being offered $5700 per man.

Do you have a source for this please?

 

[Ian H]

Russia’s central bank has cut interest rates at its past ten meetings, from 21% in mid-2025 to 14% in July. On Friday rate-setters broke that run, keeping rates unchanged. Petrol explains why. Ukrainian drone strikes on refineries have caused shortages; pump prices in July were 26% higher than a year earlier. Meanwhile, the annual inflation rate is 6%. Although it has fallen since last spring, it remains stubbornly above the bank’s 4% target.

The government continues to splurge on its war in Ukraine. The fiscal stimulus means that demand is running up against severe supply constraints. One is labour: unemployment is close to 2%, nearly an all-time low. But the central bank, which expects the economy to grow by just 1% this year, may be unwilling to raise interest rates soon. Russians can expect little relief from rising prices.
[The Economist]

 

[Pinno718]

Do you have a source for this please?

There are numerous sources, you can start with this one and do a search:

https://tvpworld.com/94667612/kremlin-accused-of-coercing-russians-into-ukraine-war-service