War with Russia

[dutchguylivingintheuk]

If you want fireworks, then follow Sternenko, Jake Broe, Artur Reti and Jay in Kyiv on YT, MAK 26, Special Kherson Cat, Magyar's birds and War translated on X. There's no end of fireworks - right where it matters; fuel storage, oil and gas transportation hubs, oil and gas production facilities and logistics. Logistics that carry fuel are great but ammunition depots are even better.

With soundtrack, just for you. It's really quite good at many levels

I did follow many of them a few years back, it is quite interesting how they have grown adapted and now seem to be coming back stronger and modernized against an enemy that fails in almost every attempt to modernize (did they burn the Armata yet, or is it still on propaganda duties? )

"179 soldiers killed for every square km taken". That's alarming.

Especially considering Ukraine took the first town/area not so long ago using unmanned tracked verhicles, so the advantages Russia had being able to send out colossal numbers of troops to one position are getting less effective.

 

[briantrumpet]

It would actually be *very* funny if Ukraine stole sales away from the US if their system ends up delivering what it needs to at a fraction of the cost, given how the US has largely walked away from Ukraine.

 

[Psamathe]

It would actually be *very* funny if Ukraine stole sales away from the US if their system ends up delivering what it needs to at a fraction of the cost, given how the US has largely walked away from Ukraine.

View attachment 15700

Also, it would have a massive advantage if they could produce decent numbers. In 2025 Lockheed Martin delivered only 620. They have agreed higher production numbers with the US Government but ramping up production takes time.

Each missile apparently takes 2 years to build and cost $4m. And at least one (apparently often 2) used for each incoming low cost drone/missile.

 

[BoldonLad]

Also, it would have a massive advantage if they could produce decent numbers. In 2025 Lockheed Martin delivered only 620. They have agreed higher production numbers with the US Government but ramping up production takes time.

Each missile apparently takes 2 years to build and cost $4m. And at least one (apparently often 2) used for each incoming low cost drone/missile.

At 8million USD per drone, are
They economically viable?

 

[Psamathe]

At 8million USD per drone, are
They economically viable?

I'm no analyst but given Iranian one-way attack drones such as the Shahed-136 cost roughly $20,000 to $50,000 each I suspect mot. Reports that US in its war with Iran has used $2.4 bn of Patriot missiles.

 

[briantrumpet]

Nothing new here for @Pinno718, but Snell is catching up with the cautious optimism.

https://arthursnell.substack.com/p/turning-a-corner?r=8jnwf

 

[Pinno718]

Nothing new here for @Pinno718, but Snell is catching up with the cautious optimism.

https://arthursnell.substack.com/p/turning-a-corner?r=8jnwf

Yes, his view is repeated my more and more commentators.

It would be nice to get people who are looking forward, beyond this conflict and the repercussions of Putin's abject failure to boost his ego by pursuing the dream of re-instating the old Soviet borders of the previous empire. Putin has largely gone about expanding his territory mercilessly and without real sanction nor impediment. That is, until now and he's paying the price for it. 500,000 men dead all because of an ego and an country and an economy that, even if the conflict stopped today, is in such a mess, that Russia in whatever form, will take decades to recover unless the people wrestle the resources out of the hands of the corrupt. The military might is no more, the coffers are running dry.

I listen to 'The Russian Dude' (Arten Dikarev) who delivers in that slightly ornate and seemingly long winded Russian fashion but nonetheless, he saw the writing on the wall a while ago; when the propaganda changed to a wholly and outwardly aggressive attitude towards the West and particularly, Europe.
In the same way Trump meets due criticism with conflict and exaggeration - tDikarev saw the heightened Russian rhetoric as a sign of weakness, of Russia loosing it's grip. I think that was the turning point; well, at least, one could argue that as soon as Ukraine warranted strikes beyond it's borders (because the passive defence of it's existence was not working), was the point that Ukraine could seriously question Russian interests.
No one predicted that this outward aggression towards Russian targets would prove so effective and that little Ukraine (45m people) could grind the teeth off the Bear. It is remarkable.

 

[briantrumpet]

Yes, his view is repeated my more and more commentators.

It would be nice to get people who are looking forward, beyond this conflict and the repercussions of Putin's abject failure to boost his ego by pursuing the dream of re-instating the old Soviet borders of the previous empire. Putin has largely gone about expanding his territory mercilessly and without real sanction nor impediment. That is, until now and he's paying the price for it. 500,000 men dead all because of an ego and an country and an economy that, even if the conflict stopped today, is in such a mess, that Russia in whatever form, will take decades to recover unless the people wrestle the resources out of the hands of the corrupt. The military might is no more, the coffers are running dry.

I listen to 'The Russian Dude' (Arten Dikarev) who delivers in that slightly ornate and seemingly long winded Russian fashion but nonetheless, he saw the writing on the wall a while ago; when the propaganda changed to a wholly and outwardly aggressive attitude towards the West and particularly, Europe.
In the same way Trump meets due criticism with conflict and exaggeration - tDikarev saw the heightened Russian rhetoric as a sign of weakness, of Russia loosing it's grip. I think that was the turning point; well, at least, one could argue that as soon as Ukraine warranted strikes beyond it's borders (because the passive defence of it's existence was not working), was the point that Ukraine could seriously question Russian interests.
No one predicted that this outward aggression towards Russian targets would prove so effective and that little Ukraine (45m people) could grind the teeth off the Bear. It is remarkable.

I guess that Putin picked the wrong target at the wrong time: he didn't expect the fightback or the strength of the Ukrainian spirit, and didn't have a Plan B.

 

[Psamathe]

I'm no analyst but given Iranian one-way attack drones such as the Shahed-136 cost roughly $20,000 to $50,000 each I suspect mot. Reports that US in its war with Iran has used $2.4 bn of Patriot missiles.

Watching the news on US/Iran made me think how when Iran launches a missile that gets intercepted they could view it as having hit "a target" ... that would be a financial target rather than a military target. Their Iran's missile cost the US a lot of $s and further depleted what sounds like diminishing stocks. And when the Patriots run out there will be some countries with far weaker defences around.

 

[PurplePenguin]

Watching the news on US/Iran made me think how when Iran launches a missile that gets intercepted they could view it as having hit "a target" ... that would be a financial target rather than a military target. Their Iran's missile cost the US a lot of $s and further depleted what sounds like diminishing stocks. And when the Patriots run out there will be some countries with far weaker defences around.

There's been some leniency with the truth as well. For example, one of the missiles the other day was intercepted, but "debris" seems to have caused a lot of damage. There's also been a lot of damage to US bases and that plane with minor damage was missing half its body.

 

[dutchguylivingintheuk]

Watching the news on US/Iran made me think how when Iran launches a missile that gets intercepted they could view it as having hit "a target" ... that would be a financial target rather than a military target. Their Iran's missile cost the US a lot of $s and further depleted what sounds like diminishing stocks. And when the Patriots run out there will be some countries with far weaker defences around.

For some reason that logic doesn't really work, you see Turkey was very happy the Us finally wanted to sell Patriots to them a few years back and even happier to dump the pre-orders on Russian made S400 and S600 systems.
Demand for Russian made weapons is very low at the moment for some reason. (other then Russia can't supply it as they need it for they own forces)
Turns out that albeit expensive if doing the math's a air defense with a much better track record in terms of actually being able to intercept targets is much more valued then an air defense that's cheaper but works significantly worse.
There are just as many rumors saying the US stockpile is getting low as there where rumors claiming Iran had less much fewer missiles then they now believe they have. it called "fog of war"

It is true tough that modern wars have shown that systems like patriot need helpers to prevent using very expensive rockets to shoot down a drone. if a heavy machine gun can do the same at a fraction of the cost.