War with Russia

[Pinno718]

The nuts and bolts of the war for Ukraine:

There is a massive effort to deplete Russian radar, missile and drone production facilities before a) the Russian technology catches up and b) winter where it is known that Russia intends to repeat it's civilian and energy facility onslaught on Ukraine.
However, there is hope. The Russian stock market is down by 20% this year alone and this might be one of the primary reasons with an economy on the verge of freefall having printed 5tr Roubles just recently.
We really need Ukraine to succeed in the months before winter so the destruction of military vehicles is simply holding the frontline but the destruction of the Russian economy through the elimination of oil and gas infrastructure plus drone manufacture facilities is key.

 

[briantrumpet]

The nuts and bolts of the war for Ukraine:

There is a massive effort to deplete Russian radar, missile and drone production facilities before a) the Russian technology catches up and b) winter where it is known that Russia intends to repeat it's civilian and energy facility onslaught on Ukraine.
However, there is hope. The Russian stock market is down by 20% this year alone and this might be one of the primary reasons with an economy on the verge of freefall having printed 5tr Roubles just recently.
We really need Ukraine to succeed in the months before winter so the destruction of military vehicles is simply holding the frontline but the destruction of the Russian economy through the elimination of oil and gas infrastructure plus drone manufacture facilities is key.

View attachment 15952

It does look like the current strategy is mostly that (I assume while holding the front line as much as possible)

 

[briantrumpet]

Oh dear, how sad. The Russian stock market looking a bit peaky.

 

[UglyWithaSidePart]

They are so done for, one wonders how much more can Russia take before change.

 

[briantrumpet]

They are so done for, one wonders how much more can Russia take before change.

Ukraine still battering Crimea as well as around Moscow tonight. Putin is caught between a rock and a hard place, and if oil prices also fall too, it's going to make his life even more tricky.

 

[Pinno718]

They are so done for, one wonders how much more can Russia take before change.

[Sorry, I got a bit carried away]

Imagine loosing 1.5m men through death or injury in a society where any dissent has been suppressed through imprisonment and murder.
We don't know of the murmurings in amongst the rest of the population as anything that resembles criticism of the regime will class you as a traitor. There is still widespread acceptance of the conflict with Ukraine as a necessity such is the long term effect of wall to wall state propaganda and no other publicly accessible media that would contradict the status quo - watching foreign news is an offence.

For Putin, the fact that he is withdrawing air defences to Moscow leaving critical infrastructure vulnerable suggests a bunker mentality. He's old and speculation is rife regarding his health, if apprehended (though highly unlikely), he would appear in the Hague. He has to watch his back. The sequestration of private assets and the deaths of 'only' (ha ha) 24 generals of which he is responsible for (IIRC) 19 of them suggests a man who is paranoid. Although he is probably correct in thinking his end will come from within. He hasn't the humility to step down. He's too arrogant and he has been a ruthless megalomaniac. The thought of not being number 1 and the head of a super power is most likely sucking the life blood out of him.
Withdrawing from Ukraine would show his weakness and it would be the underline and in bold of his abject failure on a global stage - those loyal to him would no longer be loyal.
Russia was a superpower. now it's a disintegrating mess - and it's all because of him. It's all because Ukraine has exposed the layers of corruption, the lack of investment in infrastructure to the point that when asked the question, Russia was not greater then the sum of all it's parts, Russia does not and didn't have the resilience to withstand an enemy intent on saving their very existence. No motive is greater. No man in Ukraine could tolerate the thought of his wife or daughter being raped by a Russian soldier or he or his son sent to prison in Siberia or shot in the street because he didn't want to be under Russian rule or perhaps, having to flee to another country interminably.

Putin sought expansion as an extension of his ego: he is a small with big ideas and boys in the club he amassed over time to assign roles and furnish them with status, money and power - so long as they were loyal to him and followed his orders.

Personally, I think we are inching towards the point of critical mass. Personally, I am glad that Putin has decided to cling on because the longer he does, the less likely someone else will emerge and continue the aggression towards the West and Ukraine.

 

[briantrumpet]

Personally, I think we are inching towards the point of critical mass. Personally, I am glad that Putin has decided to cling on because the longer he does, the less likely someone else will emerge and continue the aggression towards the West and Ukraine.

Rather worryingly I'm tending increasingly to agree with you. Apologies.

It looks rather like Ukraine is keeping the pressure up on Moscow and Crimea (as well as all the refineries etc) as they know Putin is already overstretched, and the battlefield itself is at stalemate. My suspicion is that Ukraine is hoping to completely isolate Crimea in order to force Putin's hand by the significance of losing control of Crimea, even if Ukraine don't risk troops by retaking it.

It seems like Zelenskyy wants to force Putin to the negotiating table on Ukraine's terms, and that's what this is all about.

Go on, tell me I'm wrong! 😉

 

[briantrumpet]

Belarus complies.

 

[Pinno718]

It seems like Zelenskyy wants to force Putin to the negotiating table on Ukraine's terms, and that's what this is all about.

Go on, tell me I'm wrong! 😉

I think Zelensky would be very sceptical of anything that comes out of talks - that is, without NATO backing or mediation and we know that probably won't happen due to you know who in the WH. Plus, Putin has always been anti-NATO all along. He wouldn't agree terms. We know the US is wholly unreliable and not to be trusted, so who is going to mediate? Who would Putin trust? Perhaps China but he is in debt to China and China would add the concessions that have already been written

I am positive that Zelensky would love to see an end to civilian deaths. He's not a war monger, he was a stand up comic*.
I think Putin is the architect of a Catch 22 scenario: reaching out for meaningful peace negotiations and cessation of conflict would be admission that his back is against the wall (and something to be treated by Zelensky with a huge dollop of justified scepticism). You cannot trust Putin.

Zelensky knows full well that in order to avoid another winter of being pummelled, although at this point - they would survive but at cost, he needs to keep developing missiles and drones** and extend their range and keep hammering key infrastructure.
Be optimistic and think about the current situation with Moscow in almost self confinement surrounded by a myriad of glaring issues both economical and logistical with drones flying almost totally freely overhead. It's the Capitol of an ex super power and it's a sitting, lame and flailing duck. Putin's allies in terms of power are non existent or hold a sword over his head (China).

North Korea - still supplying drones but they are not free and troops proved to be totally ineffective. N Korean military hardware wasn't up to scrutiny and it takes time to supply. Time Putin hasn't got and money he's running out of with assurances of credit looking ever more fragile.
Assad - gone
Chechnya - possibly on verge of a civil war
Belarus - Cowering
Hungary - Gone
Iraq - embroiled in a conflict they did not want and still subject to international sanctions
African interests: evaporated or too insignificant to meaningfully assist.

*Poetic really.
**Let's not forget, Ukraine is now taking orders for drones and therefore, that market is financing the R&D.

Big update tomorrow and something in the pipeline...