War with Russia
- Thread starter Milzy
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Pblakeney
Squire
They're not (obviously) but for whatever reason (conductors? chips? something) the US want to defend Taiwan against those pesky Chinese.
Apart from what's going on the the Middle East there are major forces in Japan for this very reason.
Pinno718
Squire
For the doubters and the dissenters.
Putin has this social contract. He is the boss, he will take care of everything and as long as you don't criticise the government (or him) you will be fine. You can have your businesses, you can build up uncountable wealth.
Until recently, the war is something that Putin takes care of and is important to him. The annexation of Ukraine is both a sovereign right and an inevitability. So for the main, the propaganda fed Russians have largely been isolated from the SVO (SMO as we know it).
Whilst Ukraine's persistent efforts to damage the cash generators of an economy almost wholly built on oil and gas exports have had a huge impact, thus far Russia still limps on, Russians still make minor advances despite the huge human costs because to the average Russian, they're not seeing the images emanating from the meat grinder and well, they're soldiers and they sign up to this and they get paid a fortune. It's their job after all. Only the relatives of the fighting men are aware of the conditions and the morale and the stark lack of equipment. The fact that relatives crowd fund to cover the cost of socks or body armour sourced from a local Wildberries warehouse, is astounding when you think about that in terms of a superpower and the perceived ability to conduct a war.
Two major points of contact between the masses and the conflict have happened over the last 2 months in a way that Putin is probably very uncomfortable with. First is the fuel price hikes and the shortages but second, is the strikes on the Wildberries warehouses. The latter, a direct hit on Russian people - on their ability to order a box of nappies, or the latest iphone or the fact that so many businesses are built around Wildberries. If you imagine the general public in the UK not being able to order from Amazon at the click of a mouse, multiply that - because we have more than Amazon but Wildberries represent such a huge part of Russian on-line retail spending and commerce.
For Putin, the crunch comes in September when the Russians get to vote in the national elections. If Putin wins by a huge margin there will be doubts about the authenticity of the results so they will have to be rigged cleverly. However, Putin will run on a mandate of a mobilisation; to end the conflict quickly and decisively - this is not your usual recruitment drive, this will be forced conscription. The point where the war meets the people head on. A crunch time in a country where dissent is on the rise and the awareness of the conflict is growing in the face of direct hits on their day to day existence. Where multiple video's are appearing blaming Putin for the mess they are in. This is a litmus test in that 3 months ago, posting a Tiktok video about how bad things are and its' the government's or Putin's fault would be met with certain arrest and a jail sentence. This is where Putin is loosing control.
Recently, Putin had a tour of Moscow. The fuel prices displayed on the garages that he passed were altered to 2025 prices and the fuel queues were cleared.
The elections in September and subsequent mobilisation represents the complete erosion of the line between ordinary life and the war. This is where Putin's social contract will change. This is where he will demand of the people sacrifice for victory.
If what he sees and what he hears is filtered to the point that there is no clear cognitive understanding of just how bad things are and just how unpopular he is becoming, then the election mandate may just be the point where he falls and fails. If the public are not on board with his plans because the war has finally come to the Russians personally and it is affecting them in a way where before, it was some minor conflict that Russia had to do, then the cracks open irreconcilably.
The more Ukraine can pummel Russia before the elections, the more difficult it will be for Putin to sell his mobilisation mandate.
Putin has this social contract. He is the boss, he will take care of everything and as long as you don't criticise the government (or him) you will be fine. You can have your businesses, you can build up uncountable wealth.
Until recently, the war is something that Putin takes care of and is important to him. The annexation of Ukraine is both a sovereign right and an inevitability. So for the main, the propaganda fed Russians have largely been isolated from the SVO (SMO as we know it).
Whilst Ukraine's persistent efforts to damage the cash generators of an economy almost wholly built on oil and gas exports have had a huge impact, thus far Russia still limps on, Russians still make minor advances despite the huge human costs because to the average Russian, they're not seeing the images emanating from the meat grinder and well, they're soldiers and they sign up to this and they get paid a fortune. It's their job after all. Only the relatives of the fighting men are aware of the conditions and the morale and the stark lack of equipment. The fact that relatives crowd fund to cover the cost of socks or body armour sourced from a local Wildberries warehouse, is astounding when you think about that in terms of a superpower and the perceived ability to conduct a war.
Two major points of contact between the masses and the conflict have happened over the last 2 months in a way that Putin is probably very uncomfortable with. First is the fuel price hikes and the shortages but second, is the strikes on the Wildberries warehouses. The latter, a direct hit on Russian people - on their ability to order a box of nappies, or the latest iphone or the fact that so many businesses are built around Wildberries. If you imagine the general public in the UK not being able to order from Amazon at the click of a mouse, multiply that - because we have more than Amazon but Wildberries represent such a huge part of Russian on-line retail spending and commerce.
For Putin, the crunch comes in September when the Russians get to vote in the national elections. If Putin wins by a huge margin there will be doubts about the authenticity of the results so they will have to be rigged cleverly. However, Putin will run on a mandate of a mobilisation; to end the conflict quickly and decisively - this is not your usual recruitment drive, this will be forced conscription. The point where the war meets the people head on. A crunch time in a country where dissent is on the rise and the awareness of the conflict is growing in the face of direct hits on their day to day existence. Where multiple video's are appearing blaming Putin for the mess they are in. This is a litmus test in that 3 months ago, posting a Tiktok video about how bad things are and its' the government's or Putin's fault would be met with certain arrest and a jail sentence. This is where Putin is loosing control.
Recently, Putin had a tour of Moscow. The fuel prices displayed on the garages that he passed were altered to 2025 prices and the fuel queues were cleared.
The elections in September and subsequent mobilisation represents the complete erosion of the line between ordinary life and the war. This is where Putin's social contract will change. This is where he will demand of the people sacrifice for victory.
If what he sees and what he hears is filtered to the point that there is no clear cognitive understanding of just how bad things are and just how unpopular he is becoming, then the election mandate may just be the point where he falls and fails. If the public are not on board with his plans because the war has finally come to the Russians personally and it is affecting them in a way where before, it was some minor conflict that Russia had to do, then the cracks open irreconcilably.
The more Ukraine can pummel Russia before the elections, the more difficult it will be for Putin to sell his mobilisation mandate.
Pblakeney
Squire
Stark similarities in the US.
