War with Russia

[Pinno718]

One thing I find intriguing about opinions of NATO as a force for good or bad is the example of Horseshoe Theory where the strongest opinions against it in the UK seem to come from those strange bedfellows the far left and Reform.

I haven't seen any evidence of that so i'm not in a position to comment. I'm not saying there isn't.

The French teach politics in the non linear Horseshoe theory FWIW.

 

[Pinno718]

'Facing the event'

An article about Russia's deepening reliance on China, an extract.

But before that, Russia is paying up to 300% more for commodities they cannot get elsewhere due to sanctions and tadeonal diminished industrial complexes globally.

1. Geopolitics: "Waking Up in China?" / The "Sleeping Giant" Theme

• • "Waking Up in China? | Face to the Event": There is a factual investigation piece by this exact title published recently. It specifically tracks Russian machine-tool manufacturing companies (like Mashstroy) attempting to set up joint manufacturing plants inside China with state-backed Chinese partners to facilitate industrial and defense hardware supply chains. The analysis explores how Russia navigating its trade constraints must face a reality where China acts as the dominant "senior partner" due to its vast structural and economic leverage.

 

[Pinno718]

A very personal interview with Zelensky if you had any doubt about this conflict...
It's warm, it's human, there's illustration of atrocities, of war crimes, of the death, the carnage.

I must say, it's a hard watch and I got through it in stages and found myself welling up more than once...


View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5x9dkYIRb58

 

[dutchguylivingintheuk]

Declassified documents show security assurances against NATO expansion to Soviet leaders from Baker, Bush, Genscher, Kohl, Gates, Mitterrand, Thatcher, Hurd, Major, and Woerner
The documents reinforce former CIA Director Robert Gates’s criticism of “pressing ahead with expansion of NATO eastward [in the 1990s], when Gorbachev and others were led to believe that wouldn’t happen.”[1] The key phrase, buttressed by the documents, is “led to believe.”
Full article here: https://nsarchive.gwu.edu/briefing-...on-what-gorbachev-heard-western-leaders-early

Gorbarchev himself gave an interview right before his death in which he stated that Nato expansion and the potential threat to Russia was never on the table, it was not something Gorbarchev's Russia was concerned about.

 

[Pinno718]

200,000 small and medium businesses in Russia folded in the first 3 months of 2026.

https://ua.news/en/world/u-rosiyi-z...isiach-malikh-i-serednikh-pidpriiemstv-forbes

 

[Pinno718]

Some key notes regarding the apparent windfall from raised global oil prices which are apparently assisting Russia's economy and therefore, war chest.
[Source: The Russian Dude using stats derived from various news sources]

• Approx. 45 to 50% of Russian oil and gas is state owned. This means that the government only get tax revenue from the sales.
• Urals crude oil prices are always less than Brent. Currently there's only a few dollars difference between the two but actual sales value is different from what it is priced at. There are a number of factors why:

Firstly, oil sales have to go through intermediaries. Intermediaries operate under sanctions. There is often a mark up due to 'risk management'.
Secondly, the shadow fleet are more reluctant to ship oil due to risk. And this is simply a numbers game: insurance costs have risen.

Key Drivers of Rising Insurance Costs [Arabian and Gulf Business Insight, AGBI]

• • War Risk Insurance Spikes: Additional war risk insurance (AWRP) for tankers passing through high-risk chokepoints like the Strait of Hormuz has jumped from pre-conflict levels of 0.10% to 0.25% of a vessel’s hull value up to 6% to 10%. [1, 2]
  • Multimillion-Dollar Voyage Additions: For a supertanker (Very Large Crude Carrier, or VLCC) valued around $100 million to $140 million, a single voyage through a high-risk zone can incur $3 million to $20 million in war-risk insurance surcharges alone. This adds roughly $7 to $8 to the cost of a single barrel of crude oil.
  • Black Sea War-Risk Premiums: Additional war-risk insurance (AWRP) rates for tankers calling at Russian and regional Black Sea ports have climbed steeply. For instance, war-risk quotes for Black Sea oil liftings have spiked—with per-vessel insurance costs on specific routes (such as Novorossiysk) jumping from roughly $200,000 to as high as $2.5 million per voyage.
  So, if you take out insurance costs, intermediary costs and the fact that the black market price for Russian oil is less than what is listed, mainly because there is risk in the oil not actually getting elivered, the profit margins aren't sufficient to cover Russian national debt running at 18-20% of GDP having risen to $450bn.
  There is not enough money circulating to service the debt, regional budgets and the war effort simultaneously.
• [Sources: The Glpbal Economy and ISI Markets https://www.ceicdata.com/en/indicator/russia/tax-revenue--of-gdp]
• In an effort to mitigate the burgeoning fiscal pressures, Putin has simply raised taxation.
  According to the World Bank Tax Revenue Dataset, tax revenue in the Russian Federation is approximately 10.87% to 10.9% of GDP (based on data through 2024).
  Broader metrics tracking total Russian government budget revenues (which combine direct and indirect taxes, plus oil and gas revenues and other state receipts) place total consolidated public revenues closer to 20% to 22% of GDP depending on the specific fiscal quarter and commodity market fluctuations.
  
  
  
  
  

 

[Pblakeney]

• Urals crude oil prices are always less than Brent. Currently there's only a few dollars difference between the two but actual sales value is different from what it is priced at. There are a number of factors why:

Firstly, oil sales have to go through intermediaries. Intermediaries operate under sanctions. There is often a mark up due to 'risk management'.

There is another factor that either I have misunderstood, or is under reported.
The price of oil that is often quoted is set by the bods on the Stockmarket floor, not by supply and demand.
Obviously you'd like to think that they will be linked but Donnie has shown how the price can be manipulated.

 

[briantrumpet]

Yay, isn't that just great, Financial Times!

(Alternative headline: Trump henchmen discuss breaking international sanctions over the war in Ukraine to establish US-Russian business partnerships.)

 

[Pblakeney]

Yay, isn't that just great, Financial Times!

(Alternative headline: Trump henchmen discuss breaking international sanctions over the war in Ukraine to establish US-Russian business partnerships.)

View attachment 18006

I'm yet to see what is in it for Ukraine. Other than an extended war or surrender.
Donnie cannot buy Putin out of this.

 

[briantrumpet]

I'm yet to see what is in it for Ukraine. Other than an extended war or surrender.
Donnie cannot buy Putin out of this.

Trump Grifting Corp and Putin just want to impose a 'peace' on Ukraine so that TGC and Putin can get on with getting rich. Nothing has changed in that respect.

 

[Pblakeney]

Trump Grifting Corp and Putin just want to impose a 'peace' on Ukraine so that TGC and Putin can get on with getting rich. Nothing has changed in that respect.

View attachment 18010

Sums up my thoughts on the current (since Feb 2025) US - Russia relationship.