Pblakeney
Shaman
'Creep' is exactly what the Russian advance is. 1600 personnel lost per square kilometre gained.
But I can also counter that article with:
[Aug. 25, 2026 update: Based on data from Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group, Russian forces endured a net loss of 3 square miles of Ukraine’s territory in the past four weeks (July 28–Aug. 25, 2026).1 In comparison, during the previous four-week period (June 30–July 28, 2026), Russia registered a net gain of 10 square miles, according to DeepState’s data. In contrast, RM’s analysis of ISW data indicates that in the past four weeks (July 28–Aug. 25, 2026) Russia gained a net total of 21 square miles of control over Ukrainian territory. In the shorter-term, Russian forces made a net gain of 36 square miles of Ukrainian territory in the period of Aug. 18–25. ]
Think about the above. This is the recent gain of the Special Military Operation carried out by a 'super power' that was supposed to last 3 days and was supposed also to occupy the whole of Ukraine. The swings and roundabouts of physical land gains are meaningless. The fact that Russia keeps bombing civilians is a constant reminder to Ukrainians that Putin does not care for the life of a single Ukrainian and surrender is not an option. London at one point during WW2 was bombed for 57 nights consecutively. Huge parts of it flattened. Did we surrender?
I shall summarise the current state of Russia and then present the argument about sustainability.
There is latency in all of the above. The direct effect of Russia's ability to continue this conflict is yet to be fully realised. It is unlikely to be catastrophic IMHO - more, a slow demise.
- Russia was once described as 'a gas station run by mobsters'. Russia is now importing fuel. It's what? Think about this and stop suffering Putin Derangement Syndrome.
- Fuel shortages are widespread and many many Russian cannot even get to work. How do you conduct a ground campaign with fuel shortages? The fuel shortages are leading people to openly question Putin. You see, if Putin wants to have the people's support in order to justify the impending draft, this is a friction point. Thousands of young people are fleeing through Georgia and other places. https://www.politico.eu/article/russian-vladimir-putin-quietly-preparing-another-mobilization/ Putin has managed all along to keep the war away from directly affecting the people but not anymore.
- Russian oil and gas facilities; the cash generators, are being struck on a daily basis without meaningful resistance. This is significant in that the cash generation is ever decreasing and a super power cannot defend it's most valuable resources? There's something very wrong there. Remember, as soon as China and N Korea think that the tab may not be paid... https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2026...-slow-but-occasionally-explosive-death-a93257
- Russian stock market down 26% this year alone https://tradingeconomics.com/russia/stock-market
- Russia sells 44 tons of Gold Bullion in the first half of 2026 https://www.kitco.com/news/article/...tral-bank-sold-44-tonnes-gold-first-half-2026
- Crimea is all but isolated with 22 hours in any day without electricity. There are food and fresh water shortages whilst Ukraine strikes an average of 35 logistical vehicles per day.
- Russian grain exports down 79% as grain rots in silo's or hasn't been harvested due to fuel shortages and a lack of buyers as shipping companies are refusing to sail through the Black sea and the sea of Azov. Food shortages in Russia is increasing and the outlook for this winter is not good. Farmers face impoverishment as they will not have the funds to purchase seed for early 27 sowing.
The impending draft will feed thousands of under trained men into the meat grinder to simply absorb cost. Zelensky vows to send 1000 drones per day into Russia https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026...yy-plans-to-hit-russia-with-1000-drones-a-day
It is without doubt that Putin cannot sustain the conflict. He as two options; withdraw or continue this current bombardment in the faint hope that Ukraine capitulates. Putin's threats to NATO countries is mere desperate propaganda. He hasn't got the resources, the military hardware nor the logistical capabilities. And anyway, he has been threatening Western allies ad nauseum throughout this conflict.
I'll leave you with the graphic below. This summarises the incredible volume of loss and it leads us to wonder how Russia is going to replace hardware or personnel. It also raises questions: Russia, a so called 'super power' has scant air defences, is suffering fuel shortages and is importing fuel. I shall re-iterate that: Russia is importing fuel.
The numbers below underline cost. Cost can only be absorbed if you have the income. Russia is importing fuel and so therefore, as long as Ukraine keeps striking the cash generators, where is that income going to come from? There is not a chance in hell China or N Korea will keep backing Putin without assurance of long term military success and continued financial gain.
This is key IMHO. This where Putin is in a bind and why I believe is the reason he hasn't de-escalated and withdrawn (aside from his severely bruised ego). I think that Putin cannot pay the tab. The only way to pay the tab is to defeat Ukraine and restore the cash generators. You do not sell off federal reserves of gold by the truck load unless there is a fundamental gap in finances.
View attachment 17018
I’m reminded of Blackadder 4 when the general is presented with the territory gained.
