War with Russia

[matticus]

Report of Ukraine military intelligence sriking a unit connected with attrocities, in the unit's military compound.

- Near Vladivostok 5000 miles from Kyiv.

That's further than Dar Es Salaam is from my house.

I enjoyed this post! Partly for the obvious reason, but also ...

... I realised I have no idea how far apart these places are. <fiddles with google maps ...>
Turns out that these places are almost exactly 5,000 miles from Vladivostock:
- Kyiv,
- San Francisco. And
- Brisbane

 

[Ian H]

And where does that leave us? Putin has been trying to intimidate us with the nuclear threat from day one. It's scary,but if we allow that tactic to succeed then we are completely at the mercy of Russia, or N. Korea, Israel etc.

It's as well to be aware.

 

[First Aspect]

Can I point out that even if a nuclear weapon malfunctions, it still might go off?

 

[Pinno718]

I suspect Putin has to be "full of bluff", to be anything less would probably put at best mean Trump would lose admiration for the man and more likely put him in a coffin as those waiting and manoeuvring detect weakness.

I see our point though Trump seems like too good an asset to write off.

 

[Pblakeney]

How 'not so sure' do you need to be to risk finding out for certain?

Should it come to pass I doubt I will have the time to care one way or the other.
This is one of the things on my "I can't do anything about it so why care" list.

 

[matticus]

And where does that leave us? Putin has been trying to intimidate us with the nuclear threat from day one. It's scary,but if we allow that tactic to succeed then we are completely at the mercy of Russia, or N. Korea, Israel etc.

I don't think we should let him bully us .. but our armed forces and leaders do need to have a plan for if/when Putin deploys limited nuclear force. It's clearly a tricky and nuanced game:
- I think if he had a respectable working strategic nuclear deterrent and was happy to use it, he'd have let us know by now.
- I don't think he would blanche at using tactical warheads in "low-value" locations.
- ... but he knows that would carry the risk of many allies getting cold feet. So it's very much last resort.

I also believe that Western intelligence services know a lot more about Russia's capabilities than the media, or The House Of Cyclechat will ever know. (although that doesn't stop us making intelligent estimates!)

 

[the snail]

We don't need to have a nuclear response. He would probably lose support from china and others in that situation. Imo the best response to his threats is to double down on support for Ukraine, and let him know that any use of nukes would result in the anihilation of his forces in Ukraine.

 

[laurentian]

We don't need to have a nuclear response. He would probably lose support from china and others in that situation. Imo the best response to his threats is to double down on support for Ukraine, and let him know that any use of nukes would result in the anihilation of his forces in Ukraine.

I remember hearing an "expert" on the radio some months ago saying that Putin would not use nuclear weapons as Xi has told him "no".