War with Russia

[briantrumpet]

My guess is that Trump's 'peace plan' is so weighted towards rewarding Russia and enfeebling Ukraine, that Ukraine can only dismiss it as it stands, and it's hard to see how it can even form the starting point of negotiations. That said, unless Ukraine can get some strategic heavy armaments, Russia's going to carry on its war of attrition, as Ukraine's only strategy currently seems to be being an irritant with its drones and digging in where it can on the frontline.

Sorry, Pinno.

 

[Pblakeney]

My guess is that Trump's 'peace plan' is so weighted towards rewarding Russia and enfeebling Ukraine, that Ukraine can only dismiss it as it stands, and it's hard to see how it can even form the starting point of negotiations. That said, unless Ukraine can get some strategic heavy armaments, Russia's going to carry on its war of attrition, as Ukraine's only strategy currently seems to be being an irritant with its drones and digging in where it can on the frontline.

Sorry, Pinno.

View attachment 11175

From what I've seen of the deal Russia wins, US wins, Europe loses and most importantly Ukraine definitely loses.
I don't see how Zelensky can agree to it (needs a referendum as well I think) so prepare for Donnnie's outrage and threats along with "We tried.".

 

[Pinno718]

Who is to blame? Easy - who are the idiots who did not advice / ensure Ukraine to remain neutral, but cheered Ukraine to join the wrong gang to fight an unwinnable war instead?

What the hell do you mean by that statement? You blame Ukraine?! You preferred that Zelensky capitulated in the 1st day?
Russia is being hammered financially and physically: almost 1.2m men injured or killed, a sinking Rubel, a massive black hole is emerging in the economy, debts to China are rising, falling oil revenue where the best Russia can get for a barrel of crude oil is a mere $36.5, the West (Europeans) are supporting Ukraine* with drone production and development, missiles and ammunition and money, logistics and intelligence.
Russia has advanced (by the most optimistic estimates) just 90km in 4 years which translates to 13300 men per km. Russia's former ex soviet block countries are turning against Putin. This winter will be the first winter Russia will face serious power outages and the war is going to hit home in earnest.
Saboteurs inside Russia are getting braver and more daring as the opposition to them are occupied elsewhere. Putin has fired heads of industry, seized assets of Oligarch's and assassinated many as he desperately tries to hold on to power and look strong. Russia's air defence is in such a bad state, Ukraine is hitting significant infrastructure with decreasing resistance.
The threat of WW3 is now long gone. If NATO mobilised, they would flatten what's left with very little counter.

*Not just European support, for example:

Japan provides extensive support to Ukraine through financial aid, humanitarian assistance, and non-lethal military equipment. Japan has pledged billions of dollars in support, which includes budget and reconstruction funding, as well as contributions to international programs. Additionally, Japan offers technical cooperation through organizations like JICA, humanitarian assistance for displaced persons, and resources like satellite data and military vehicles to aid Ukraine's defence.

So I do not agree with you. The consensus amongst economists is that Ukraine needs to hold out for about 8 months, by then Russia will be in economic freefall.

 

[Pinno718]

...Ukraine's only strategy currently seems to be being an irritant with its drones and digging in where it can on the frontline.

Sorry, Pinno.

Just an 'irritant?! My word you are a pessimist (and categorically wrong) cloud burst, see the above post.

 

[briantrumpet]

The consensus amongst economists is that Ukraine needs to hold out for about 8 months, by then Russia will be in economic freefall.

Let's indeed hope so. It would be good if Europe could pull its finger out more and more rapidly to help that happen.

 

[Pinno718]

Let's indeed hope so. It would be good if Europe could pull its finger out more and more rapidly to help that happen.

'Europe' is a big wheel which turns slowly. Yes. to the layman they're not acting fast enough but the support is long term and comprehensive.
From your and other people's comments, it's as if Ukraine are on their own. Bizarre.

From the European Commission website:

Since the start of Russia's full-scale invasion, the European Union (EU) and its member states (Team Europe) have committed over €187 billion in comprehensive assistance to Ukraine, encompassing military, financial, humanitarian, and refugee support. This collective effort makes Europe the largest overall donor to Ukraine.

Types of European Assistance
European support is multifaceted, addressing immediate needs as well as long-term recovery and Ukraine's path toward EU membership.

Military Support
The EU and its member states have provided approximately €66 billion in military assistance.

• European Peace Facility (EPF): The EU has allocated over €11 billion through the EPF to reimburse member states for the cost of military equipment and joint procurement of ammunition and missiles. This includes establishing a dedicated €5 billion Ukraine Assistance Fund.
• Bilateral Contributions: EU member states provide significant direct military aid, including advanced weaponry like Leopard tanks, air-defense systems, ammunition, and fighter jets.
• • Training: The EU Military Assistance Mission (EUMAM Ukraine) has trained around 82,000 Ukrainian soldiers in EU territory to date.

Financial and Economic Assistance
Total financial, economic, and humanitarian support from Team Europe exceeds €100 billion.

• Ukraine Facility: A dedicated EU instrument providing up to €50 billion in stable and predictable financial support (grants and loans) for 2024-2027 to support Ukraine's recovery, reconstruction, and modernization, conditional on reforms.
• Macro-financial Assistance (MFA): Ukraine has received substantial MFA to maintain essential state functions, such as paying wages and pensions, and ensuring macroeconomic stability.
• Russian Immobilized Assets: The EU has immobilized around €210 billion of Russian Central Bank assets. The extraordinary revenues generated from these assets are being used to support Ukraine, with rules adopted to channel these profits into the Ukraine Loan Cooperation Mechanism and the EPF.

Humanitarian Aid and Civil Protection
Over €4.2 billion has been allocated for humanitarian aid to help civilians in Ukraine and those who have fled to neighboring countries.

• Emergency Response: The EU Civil Protection Mechanism, the largest operation of its kind to date, has coordinated the delivery of over 156,000 tonnes of in-kind assistance, including medical supplies, shelter items, and power generators.
• Refugee Support: The EU has activated the temporary protection mechanism for millions of Ukrainian refugees, providing them with access to housing, healthcare, education, and the labor market, and making available up to €17 billion to assist hosting member states.

Reconstruction and Connectivity
The EU is actively involved in planning and funding Ukraine's long-term reconstruction, focusing on energy security, infrastructure, and integrating Ukraine into the EU single market. This includes establishing "Solidarity Lanes" to ensure essential trade routes for Ukrainian exports and imports.
For more information, visit the official EU solidarity with Ukraine page or the European Commission's website.

 

[Pinno718]

IMHO, this is WW3 given the number of nations involved where much of it is being fought at an arms length and by proxy. There are more nations involved in this conflict than WW1. 54 directly and indirectly as opposed to 30.

 

[Pblakeney]

IMHO, this is WW3 given the number of nations involved where much of it is being fought at an arms length and by proxy. There are more nations involved in this conflict than WW1. 54 directly and indirectly as opposed to 30.

One major player doesn’t want to play any more.

 

[Pinno718]

Key points in the news and in the face of the Trump capitulation deal (for Eeyore and Cloudburst et al)

(Reuters) Ryazan oil refinery hit for the 7th time and crude oil production is suspended.
The Novochurinskaya thermal power plant was hit In the Ryazan region [linked strike with refinery combination?].
Innumerable sub stations hit.

(Ukraine military) Russian fuel train goes up in flames in Perm. Half a km of rail destroyed and 9 tankers burnt all night. At the current (and rising) frequency, rail lines are hit at least once a week. The railway network is crucial to supplying fuel and ammunition. (No claim by saboteurs nor Ukraine drone strikes oddly).
Multi purpose ship based multi million pound helicopter hit in Crimea alongside air field radar complex).

(Moscow Times) Russian 2026-2028 budget passes with rises in tax which will add $49bn to the deficit.
Russia's central bank is selling physical gold from the reserve's. Before the war, they had approx. 400 tons of gold and estimates say they have sold 57% of that. They are down to 173 tons.

Kyiv Post - Russian's continue to hit post offices (?!) and hit a pizza oven manufacturing facility as well as a UN warehouse where 10,000 food packages was destroyed.. Kyiv plunged into darkness for 16 hours as all of Kyiv's thermal energy plants have been hit. (Night of Nov 20th) 461 Russian drones intercepted, 42 got through. Mapping shows bombing campaign is seeking gaps in Ukrainian air defences.

In response, Kyiv has launched a network of mini power plants as it braces for winter.

(Reuters) US threatens to cut intel and weapons to press Ukraine into a peace deal (because they are @rseholes).
But the Europeans are paying for these weapons (with a 10% mark up), so is Trump not going to deliver weapons that have been paid for?!

 

[Pblakeney]

(Reuters) US threatens to cut intel and weapons to press Ukraine into a peace deal (because they are @rseholes).
But the Europeans are paying for these weapons (with a 10% mark up), so is Trump not going to deliver weapons that have been paid for?!

Wouldn't surprise me in the slightest.
The US under Donnie is no longer our ally.

 

[briantrumpet]

Missed this yesterday. I'm sure that the Ukrainians didn't.

 

[Pblakeney]

Missed this yesterday. I'm sure that the Ukrainians didn't.

View attachment 11187

As said months ago, Ukraine will end up being a US/Russia carve up unless someone stands in their way.

 

[Psamathe]

My guess is that Trump's 'peace plan' is so weighted towards rewarding Russia and enfeebling Ukraine,

And ... reported on Radio 4 this morning that the deal includes rare earths for the US from Russia. Enriching US as well.

 

[Pblakeney]

And ... reported on Radio 4 this morning that the deal includes rare earths for the US from Russia. Enriching US as well.

From the BBC website. (Parts in bold by me)

"The draft proposes that $100bn of frozen Russian assets should be invested"in US-led efforts to rebuild and invest in Ukraine", with the US receiving 50% of the profits and Europe adding $100bn in investment for reconstruction.
This is reminiscent of the US minerals deal with Ukraine earlier this year, extracting an American price for involvement, and it also leaves the European Union with nothing but hefty bills.
The sums it mentions may not be sufficient, either: earlier this year the total cost of reconstruction in Ukraine was put at $524bn (€506bn).
Some €200bn in Russia frozen assets are largely held by Euroclear in Belgium, and the European Union is currently working on a plan to use the money to fund Kyiv financially and militarily.
The rest of those frozen assets would go to a "US-Russian investment vehicle", under the draft, so Russia would see some of its money come back, but again there would be a financial benefit for the US."

 

[briantrumpet]

And ... reported on Radio 4 this morning that the deal includes rare earths for the US from Russia. Enriching US as well.

"Proposed stitch-up" would be a more accurate phrase than "deal".

The more analysis that is done on the proposed stich-up, the more it becomes obvious how nakedly pro-Russian it is. Perhaps Zelenskyy could commission Mamdani to speak on their behalf to Trump, given how their meeting went yesterday.