War with Russia

[laurentian]

In practical terms though, at this stage, I think it makes no difference, as Trump wouldn't commit to troops for NATO, so it's mostly up to Europe in any case (which doesn't fill one with optimism, I'll grant you).

If the US is allowed to make a better choice in 2028, then things could change considerably.

I agree. Putin is only emboldened due to Trump's "compliance". One could (if one were a conspiracist) go as far as to say that Putin gambled on his interference in the 2024 election returning Trump as president allowing him to pursue his present course.

The situation in Ukraine and Europe would look very different indeed without Trump in power.