War with Russia

[Bazzer]

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View attachment 11612

Any suggestion Ukraine, or anti Putin forces within Russia were behind this, or just another Russian fark up?

 

[Pinno718]

Any suggestion Ukraine, or anti Putin forces within Russia were behind this, or just another Russian fark up?

It's sometimes hard to ascertain. Even when they say 'Ukrainian forces', it could be a sabotage group. 'Black Spark' seems to crop up regularly. The Ukrainians are claiming this one directly.

 

[C R]

It's sometimes hard to ascertain. Even when they say 'Ukrainian forces', it could be a sabotage group. 'Black Spark' seems to crop up regularly. The Ukrainians are claiming this one directly.

Even Iranian opposition could be involved in this. Russia is not particularly popular outside the mullah cult.

 

[Pinno718]

Even Iranian opposition could be involved in this. Russia is not particularly popular outside the mullah cult.

That's a thing.
Russia hit two Turkish ships in the Black Sea and Erdogan went begging to Putin to have a ceasefire in hitting commercial shipping. Putin declined.
More stuff is going through the Caspian Sea as a result of the Black Sea being too unpredictable and dangerous.
Ships carrying arms from Iran to Russia have now been hit in the Caspian Sea ha ha (see post above). Iran is an ally of Russia.

The pattern of Ukrainian drone strikes is emerging. This on top of a massive multiplication of drone production. One (probably over optimistic commentator) predicted 3000 drones per day into Russia - more like 1000 but if it has military or commercial value, it's a target. Ukraine is exceeding Russian drone production. Russian drones have a success rate of about 8 to 10% only. The Ukrainians are much more effective with the same oil refineries being hit repeatedly and military targets taken out with little resistance within the backdrop of very weak air defences. Putin has withdrawn countless air defence systems from other areas to protect Moscow.

He lives in a bunker. He can die in a f*cking bunker.

 

[Pinno718]

Even Iranian opposition could be involved in this. Russia is not particularly popular outside the mullah cult.

Yes and apols - you were referring specifically to the Mullah's.
It was still a great reply full of useful information though wasn't it?

 

[the snail]

My Nephew is a staff Sergeant & says our armed forces are not ready for any conflicts, they’ve had little spending on defence.
He said if the Argies sent some decent soldiers to the Falklands instead of kids, no way we’d be able to re capture them now.
The only thing to save us would be Russians to stand up & say we’re not fighting NATO. I think a lot would defect. Just like many British wouldn’t fight for this government.

That's been the case since the Falklands war. IIRC, if the Argentinians had waited a while, defense cuts would have made the operation very difficult indeed.

 

[C R]

That's been the case since the Falklands war. IIRC, if the Argentinians had waited a while, defense cuts would have made the operation very difficult indeed.

It is widely acknowledged, though in a quiet voice, that without US intelligence support and the French making it difficult for the Argentinians to get hold of exocet missiles, the UK would not have been able to retake the islands.

 

[C R]

That's a thing.
Russia hit two Turkish ships in the Black Sea and Erdogan went begging to Putin to have a ceasefire in hitting commercial shipping. Putin declined.
More stuff is going through the Caspian Sea as a result of the Black Sea being too unpredictable and dangerous.
Ships carrying arms from Iran to Russia have now been hit in the Caspian Sea ha ha (see post above). Iran is an ally of Russia.

The pattern of Ukrainian drone strikes is emerging. This on top of a massive multiplication of drone production. One (probably over optimistic commentator) predicted 3000 drones per day into Russia - more like 1000 but if it has military or commercial value, it's a target. Ukraine is exceeding Russian drone production. Russian drones have a success rate of about 8 to 10% only. The Ukrainians are much more effective with the same oil refineries being hit repeatedly and military targets taken out with little resistance within the backdrop of very weak air defences. Putin has withdrawn countless air defence systems from other areas to protect Moscow.

He lives in a bunker. He can die in a f*cking bunker.

I'm not sure I follow. Iran has no coast n the black sea, or land border with Russia. The only direct supply route is via the Caspian.

 

[Pinno718]

I'm not sure I follow. Iran has no coast n the black sea, or land border with Russia. The only direct supply route is via the Caspian.

The Black sea has become treacherous and now the Caspian sea trade is a target too.
I think that's what I meant.

 

[briantrumpet]

Given the US's apparent abandonment of NATO (at least for the present), this does seem like a vaguely sensible concession.

 

[Rusty Nails]

Without the back-up and money of the US NATO is a waste of time. European countries, with the exception of a few, are not prepared to spend the money and could never agree on any real action that might be needed.

 

[Psamathe]

European countries, with the exception of a few, are not prepared to spend the money and could never agree on any real action that might be needed.

Not something I've researched but Rory Stewart has commented (recently) how UK defence budget increases in the next few years are predominantly (over 50%) going towards UK's nuclear deterrents.

 

[Pblakeney]

Putin’s main hurdle removed being removed is going to make him very happy. Donny is destabilising the world, the complete opposite of chasing peace.

 

[briantrumpet]

Putin’s main hurdle removed being removed is going to make him very happy. Donny is destabilising the world, the complete opposite of chasing peace.

In practical terms though, at this stage, I think it makes no difference, as Trump wouldn't commit to troops for NATO, so it's mostly up to Europe in any case (which doesn't fill one with optimism, I'll grant you).

If the US is allowed to make a better choice in 2028, then things could change considerably.

 

[Psamathe]

In practical terms though, at this stage, I think it makes no difference, as Trump wouldn't commit to troops for NATO, so it's mostly up to Europe in any case (which doesn't fill one with optimism, I'll grant you).

Remembering that there is only one country that has ever invoked Article 5 and that other NATO members honoured their treaties and maybe somebody should remond Trump of that.

I see the future as ETO (NATO without US). Basically take att thge NATO treaties and document and global word process replace "America" with Ukraine?

So Ukraine honours never joining NATO, Europe can stop wasting its time sycophantising "Daddy" and we can all have some confidence about the treaties being properly honoured should the need arise.