War with Russia

[Pinno718]

So if this is true then there’s only one answer. Defeat Russia and carve it up. Easier said than done. So you’re happy with the way things are going? 2030 Brits sent to the meat grinder? Is it a worthy cause?

Lol

 

[Psamathe]

Putin falling off a balcony would suffice.

I'm no expert of Russian politics but some time back many/several commentators were saying how were Putin to suffer such a "fall" then his replacement might easily be just as bad and might maintain the war (maybe differently, no idea how much flexibility Russia's situation would allow).

 

[Pblakeney]

I'm no expert of Russian politics but some time back many/several commentators were saying how were Putin to suffer such a "fall" then his replacement might easily be just as bad and might maintain the war (maybe differently, no idea how much flexibility Russia's situation would allow).

"Might" is still no worse than the status quo.
I suspect (and it is only an opinion) that the next person would like an easy excuse to withdraw, blame Putin.

 

[Pinno718]

"Might" is still no worse than the status quo.
I suspect (and it is only an opinion) that the next person would like an easy excuse to withdraw, blame Putin.

I think so too. Putin's successor may be bound by the current limitations and no matter what his persona, is constrained by economics and endemic corruption.

 

[Psamathe]

I'm no expert of Russian politics but some time back many/several commentators were saying how were Putin to suffer such a "fall" then his replacement might easily be just as bad and might maintain the war (maybe differently, no idea how much flexibility Russia's situation would allow).

"Might" is still no worse than the status quo.
I suspect (and it is only an opinion) that the next person would like an easy excuse to withdraw, blame Putin.

Quite possible.
Particularly so as I'd heard those commentators some time ago and not recently, back before when Ukraine started having successful strikes into Russia. Plus each day that passes, each munition from Ukraine reaching its target in Russia increases the impact on Russia, increases losses to Russia and to the population a new leader likely would want support from. Each day that passes makes the war look less winnable from a Russian perspective.

And the saying (along the lines of) "When you are in a hole, stop digging".

 

[Pinno718]

I cannot keep up.

• Power outages in the exclave Kaliningrad exclave after drone strikes
• 1 more oil refinery and a storage depot struck overnight: Ufa oil refinery and it's still being struck (as of 1600hrs European time and
• Rosneft oil depot
• Rostov industrial complex struck overnight. This complex manufactures solid missile propellent
• 4 army supply depots struck in various Oblast
• Novomoskovsk finished ammonium warehouse struck. Ammonium is used foor munitions and explosives

 

[Psamathe]

I cannot keep up.

• Power outages in the exclave Kaliningrad exclave after drone strikes
• 1 more oil refinery and a storage depot struck overnight: Ufa oil refinery and it's still being struck (as of 1600hrs European time and
• Rosneft oil depot
• Rostov industrial complex struck overnight. This complex manufactures solid missile propellent
• 4 army supply depots struck in various Oblast
• Novomoskovsk finished ammonium warehouse struck. Ammonium is used foor munitions and explosives

An interesting aspect to the Ukrainian targeting that seems continually ignored on all the News reports I've seen is the contract between Ukrainian tactics and Russian tactics. Ukraine targeting only industrial base whereas Russia targeting civilians and civilian infrastructure.

And this might relate into the potential for any Putin replacement. whoever follows Putin one step they could take to massively help Russia back into the "Rest of the World" would be to hand those accused of war crimes over to The Hague for trial. Send a strong message to the rest of the world that Russia believes in and complies with international law, etc. Reality is it would probably only be a few prominent individuals as next leader would need to keep military on-side eg maybe handing over a few very Putin aligned loyalist Generals.

 

[Pinno718]

An interesting aspect to the Ukrainian targeting that seems continually ignored on all the News reports I've seen is the contract between Ukrainian tactics and Russian tactics. Ukraine targeting only industrial base whereas Russia targeting civilians and civilian infrastructure.

Not in the news sources I watch/read.

And this might relate into the potential for any Putin replacement. whoever follows Putin one step they could take to massively help Russia back into the "Rest of the World" would be to hand those accused of war crimes over to The Hague for trial. Send a strong message to the rest of the world that Russia believes in and complies with international law, etc. Reality is it would probably only be a few prominent individuals as next leader would need to keep military on-side eg maybe handing over a few very Putin aligned loyalist Generals.

European governments have been quite clear on not targeting civilians. It's part of the grant/funding/supply criteria. Zelensky is fully aware of the fact that the killing of civilians may unite the population behind Putin. This has been discussed before on this thread.
I also firmly believe in Zelensky's moral fibre. It's not in his nature. There is no tactical advantage to be gained by targeting civilians. Potentially, blood on his hands and a World with its cheque book not comfortable with the innate hypocricy that would bring.

Besides, and I have also discussed this, is the social contract where Putin told the nation that this conflict was necessary for the preservation of Russian values and he would conduct the invasion of Ukraine as Ukraine was a natural part of Russia and was a matter of national need and the general public need not worry - their lives would be unaffected. And so, the Gen P went about their daily lives with no concern and no real knowledge of what was going on in Ukraine. The recent strikes have brought the this war into stark reality and that social contract is broken.
Russians become more and more powerless as Putin's reign continues with draconian laws in internet usage, comment, free speech and opposition completely stifled.

I really don't think any future Russian leader would have such notions. It would potentially betray existing loyalties and set a precedent of mistrust. The Russian public have been fed a constant stream of propaganda for a generation and so, perpetuates the over whelming lack of trust of the West, centuries old, regardless of any antipathy towards Putin.

As an aside, I don't think there will be a Russia. I think that it will break up into various quasi independent countries. If you think about it, most regions have oil production. Siberai could be a very rich and independent country. When the people are broken, their loyalty to the idea of a Russian federation and the Kremlin drastically diminishes especially on a promise of independent prosperity.