briantrumpet
Über Member
If anyone cares, here's access to the full report:
https://consoc.org.uk/publications/the-economic-impact-of-brexit/
https://consoc.org.uk/publications/the-economic-impact-of-brexit/
A new report from John Springford, commissioned by the Constitution Society and the Federal Trust, analyses the economic impact of Brexit nine years after the UK voted to leave the EU.
The Economic Impact of Brexit performs a ‘Brexit audit’, using a wide range of publications. As a starting point, it takes the Office of Budget Responsibility’s (OBR) view of the economic impact – that withdrawal would reduce productivity, and thus GDP by about 4 per cent compared to a Remain scenario; trade by about 15 per cent, and have a sizeable impact on investment and a smaller one on losses of GDP stemming from lower net migration. It then surveys the other research to test the OBR’s views.
After considering all of the evidence, the report argues that the consensus view – that Brexit’s economic impact would be negative and large – has been borne out. The 2019-2024 parliament raised taxes by around £100 billion, and if we take the OBR’s 4 per cent loss of productivity to be the true figure, £40 billion of those tax rises were needed because of EU withdrawal.