EU & Brexit Bunker
- Thread starter briantrumpet
- Start date
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OP
OP
briantrumpet
Veteran
Just wondering if it's too early to tell yet, or too late to do anything about it.
OP
OP
briantrumpet
Veteran
(If anyone wonders why PB reacted with a laugh, there's quite a long backstory from CS, not unrelated to the thread title.)
PurplePenguin
Regular
As was common for such meetings. Barnier was just playing games which were lapped up by those looking for bait.
Re: EU/US Trade Deal
I think it's both a good deal and a bad deal.
Good in that it's better than not having had any deal. They just succeeded in setting going forward as not as bad as it might have been. Hardly "good" when it's with a supposed "ally".
Bad in that it's a deal the EU would never have agreed to were it not a less bad deal.
US long term will lose because as other countries have found out, stand with you boot on somebody's neck and eventually they will react and probably not positively. Long term treat your allies like shoot and they won't be quite so allied and you'll notice the change when you most need them.
Yet again Trump demonstrates his skills and belief in Zero-sum Game rather than taking the win-win scenario.
Ian
I think it's both a good deal and a bad deal.
Good in that it's better than not having had any deal. They just succeeded in setting going forward as not as bad as it might have been. Hardly "good" when it's with a supposed "ally".
Bad in that it's a deal the EU would never have agreed to were it not a less bad deal.
US long term will lose because as other countries have found out, stand with you boot on somebody's neck and eventually they will react and probably not positively. Long term treat your allies like shoot and they won't be quite so allied and you'll notice the change when you most need them.
Yet again Trump demonstrates his skills and belief in Zero-sum Game rather than taking the win-win scenario.
Ian
Pblakeney
Senior Member
Two things on this.
1. We all know that the EU takes an age to ratify anything and when it does the paperwork for the deal will be like the Encyclopaedia Brittanica.
2. No way on earth would Donald read such a document.
Ergo the “deal” is a deal in name only used purely to gain good press headlines.
First Aspect
Über Member
The deal removes the toothless threat of 30% tarrifs as from Friday. Do we actually know what is going to happen on Friday?
My understanding from press reports (I have not read any official documentation) is that 15% - hence a bad deal but not as bad as no deal would have been.
But as always with Trump there is ambiguity over some important aspects. eg Pharmaceuticals (important to some EU countries) according to EU are included in the 15% whereas Trump considers them excluded from the deal (ie 30%).
But that's just press reports I've seen so very happy to be corrected.
Ian
PurplePenguin
Regular
I think it probably shows the declining power of the EU to some extent.
I suspect it becomes a longer term issue. Trump is very short term, he can change his mind tomorrow and has a limited term in office. EU thinks longer term. So assessing things in terms of what happens 1 Aug 2025 might not be the complete story (or outcome).
And EU might be on 15% vs UK 10% but it has retained its independence, EU leadership is not following Trump's coat tails to pick up anything he discards on the ground, scared to express a view in case it upsets him.
Ian
PurplePenguin
Regular
It's more that the EU economically and politically can't afford a trade war with the US due to the situation in the whole world.
One aspect though is that EU can talk to China in a non-threatening way to grow trade; US can't (at least not whilst Trump is around).
Ian
C R
Guru
The difficulty for the EU is internal dissenters like Hungary and Poland, possibly encouraged by the US and Russia, undermining the process.
First Aspect
Über Member
Neither can the US really. If it sleeps through the dollars reserve currency status being erroded, it's up shjt creek like the rest of us.
First Aspect
Über Member
So if you will forgive the ignorance, where does member state l ratification come in?
