Gulf War No.37: Iranistan

[Pblakeney]

I agree. I claim no expertise or experience of ending wars but everybody seems to be saying that these days all wars end through talking not fighting. Yet from Iran's perspective they were talking, compromising, etc. and then their opposite numbers started a war! What can they do?

But, assuming the "all ways end through talking", makes me wonder if Israel will ever wonder what it needs to do to live in peace. C4 News interviewing a resident from Lebanon standing outside what was his house, now a ruin with family members buried somewhere under it all and he said "I now have a vendetta, not against Hezbollah but against Israel". Even those in part blaming Hezbollah also seem to appreciate that it's not Hezbollah dropping bombs killing their families, destroying their house, livelihoods and communities.

When I was younger I used to go travelling with Bedouin and it was a real eye-opener in terms of how differently different people can look at the world and what's important to them. I'm sure it's all very different these days but I used to go in from Israel through the Taba Border Crossing which made the contrast even sharper. Generally get up very early in Israel to get through border and sort transport, etc. in Sinai. One trip went to hotel reception to check-out and receptionist asleep on a sofa so shook him to wake him and ... machine gun pointing in my chest.

Also, judge a man not by what he says, but by what he does.
Donnie says he wants de-escalation, all while sending thousands of troops to the area.

 

[briantrumpet]

The Americans are about to launch a manned mission to orbit the moon. At the same time, their deranged President is waging war on Iran and posting crap on social media.

Bizarre or what?

I expect he's responding to something on X. Or maybe he's been watching Pigs In Space and got confused.

 

[Pinno718]

The Americans are about to launch a manned mission to orbit the moon. At the same time, their deranged President is waging war on Iran and posting crap on social media.

Bizarre or what?

Well wouldn't that be a wonderful thing to shoot down?

 

[All uphill]

The Americans are about to launch a manned mission to orbit the moon. At the same time, their deranged President is waging war on Iran and posting crap on social media.

Bizarre or what?

I hope the Lunar mission is better planned than the current war. Maybe the Clangers will resist invasion.

 

[secretsqirrel]

I expect he's responding to something on X. Or maybe he's been watching Pigs In Space and got confused.

Trump is a fine physical specimen, apparently. He should get on a rocket and go, somewhere. 🚀

 

[briantrumpet]

I hope the Lunar mission is better planned than the current war. Maybe the Clangers will resist invasion.

How many times do I need to remind people that they live on a *planet*, far, far away?

 

[Pblakeney]

Apparently Rubio was involved in negotiations.
I'm confused. Wasn't he testifying at a trial? 🤔

 

[Pinno718]

Trump is a fine physical specimen, apparently. He should get on a rocket and go, somewhere. 🚀

Yep, just ignite one of his farts.

"One giant leap for manchild, one giant leap for man"

 

[UglyWithaSidePart]

Skim reading a few news articles and I get the impression Donnie is going to blame everything on Hegseth, fire him, then pull out of Iran.
Still a few market manipulation Monday and Fridays to go, though.

 

[C R]

Skim reading a few news articles and I get the impression Donnie is going to blame everything on Hegseth, fire him, then pull out of Iran.
Still a few market manipulation Monday and Fridays to go, though.

But Israel will carry on, so the US will get dragged back in.

 

[HMS_Dave]

I still work with the theory he's a Russian agent. The real winners of this war is Putin. He's making billions out of this "30 day waiver" which will likely be extended, indefinitely.

 

[wafter]

But Israel will carry on, so the US will get dragged back in.

Or, Iran will carry on and Israel with be right in the shoot unless the US comes back.. while I think Iran will want far more than the US simply buggering off before they consider reopening the strait of Hummus.

 

[TailWindHome]

Or, Iran will carry on and Israel with be right in the shoot unless the US comes back.. while I think Iran will want far more than the US simply buggering off before they consider reopening the strait of Hummus.

They thought they were swinging at a piñata.
It turned out to a real live donkey

 

[C R]

They thought they were swinging at a piñata.
It turned out to a real live donkey

More like a wasp hive.

 

[Pinno718]

I still work with the theory he's a Russian agent. The real winners of this war is Putin. He's making billions out of this "30 day waiver" which will likely be extended, indefinitely.

He isn't.
Ural crude $51 per barrel - up from a low of $36 pb. The current value is still $20 under the price they were expecting and they based public spending and war funding on a price of $72 pb. The price of Ural's crude has remained low ever since sanctions were levied and fewer shadow fleet shipping companies willing to take the risk under ballooning insurance costs.

For a bit more context, Russia has a huge regional budget deficit, a failing military with dwindling man power, a shortage of military equipment and you have to divide oil production between state owned and privately owned and of course, the private companies only pay corporate tax. The extra revenue will go into empty coffers and will only create minor cessation of the on going financial degradation.

Add to that, re-investment in oil infrastructure since the Ukrainians started targeting oil production facilities, oil transportation etc (Russian oil production for 2025 was down by conservative estimates, 18%), has been scant as profits from deflated Ural crude has meant some oil companies are operating with no profit and some oil companies declaring bankruptcy.

A wave of bankruptcies is hitting small and medium-sized Russian oil producers, with VTB Bank initiating insolvency for First Oil in early 2026 due to over 6 billion rubles in debt. Low export prices (around $40/barrel), high taxes, and stiff U.S. sanctions have made about half of Russia's oil production unprofitable, forcing restructuring or bankruptcy for firms like NK Yangpur, Astrakhan Oil, and NK Gorny.