Holbon & St Pancras By-Election

[monkers]

Surprised no thread already burning for this - so I'll ignite.

Electoral Calculus offer a prediction model of potential results at a future general election. This has been their prediction for the seat.

This prediction is made on the basis of Starmer as candidate against unknown candidates. The new situation is a by-election with all unknown candidates.

Polanski has been celebrating his first anniversary as Green Party leader. This has caused The Guardian to predict that Polanski is set to throw his hat in the ring if he is selected by the local party.

From their news roll - so providing a link may prove fruitless.

Polanski marks first anniversary of his election as Green leader by highlighing achievements​

In the news release to mark the first anniversary of his election as the Green party’s leader, Zack Polanski highlighted what he described as 10 achievements during his first year in charge. For the record, this is how he sees his record.

-Won the Greens’ first ever parliamentary byelection in Gorton and Denton
-More than tripled the party membership from 68,500 to over 230,000
-Won a record 587 council seats and majority control of five additional councils at the local elections in May
-Won our first two members of the Senedd – when he was elected leader, Zack said this was his number one priority
-Won the Greens’ first two directly elected Mayors in Hackney and Lewisham
-Secured the Green’s highest ever vote share in London and picked up the largest net gain in seats across the city with another 249 councillors
-Called on Andy Burnham to convene a Cobra meeting on extreme heat and wildfires
-Led the charge with Green MPs to push the government to end the two child benefit cap
-Maintained full support for trans rights in response to updated EHRC guidance
-Led the way in highlighting why Keir Starmer was unfit to be prime minister

My colleague Jessica Elgot says she now thinks Polanski being the Greens’ candidate in Holborn and St Pancras is a done deal.

Zack Polanski in Holborn and St Pancras sounds like a done deal from the hints the party is dropping over the past 24 hours. Needs the formality of local party sign-off.

Count Binface also happens to live in the Camden area and has stood here before.


Should prove to be a good bun fight.

 

[Beebo]

Polanski had confirmed he will stand in the election.
Big risk for him as it’s not an easy seat to win.

 

[monkers]

Polanski had confirmed he will stand in the election.
Big risk for him as it’s not an easy seat to win.

Thanks. Local election results although not a 'look out the window' test of the weather, are perhaps a barometer. In 2022 the Greens contested Camden seats achieving 5.1%. Four years later in 2026, they achieved 29.1% and won seven seats. It's not an unreasonable argument that there is a change in mood in the area. It's also a reasonable argument to notice that 19% of the local population are Muslim folk who have felt let down by Labour. That's quite a block of people. Whatever our personal views are about that, and they may vary, it is nonetheless a significant factor.

Other factors are, can Labour produce a candidate with the previous heavy hitter profile of Starmer, balanced with the question of whether Polanski is a more heavyweight candidate than the one before - subjective but real questions.

 

[Bromptonaut]

Polanski had confirmed he will stand in the election.
Big risk for him as it’s not an easy seat to win.

He will stand for selection as the Green candidate.

His prospect of winning selection isn't guaranteed.

 

[monkers]

He will stand for selection as the Green candidate.

His prospect of winning selection isn't guaranteed.

Very true. The dynamics of this by-election are very interesting though.

 

[monkers]

He will stand for selection as the Green candidate.

His prospect of winning selection isn't guaranteed.

I now see you said selection rather than election. Apologies.

He has now been selected as is the candidate.

 

[PurplePenguin]

Starmer previously had a much larger majority, but lost a lot of it at the last election to a pro Palestine independent candidate who was promoted locally by an organised campaign. Not sure what that means this time and how organised the independent vote will be, but Labour are highly likely to win.

 

[Bromptonaut]

I now see you said selection rather than election. Apologies.

He has now been selected as is the candidate.

I'd understood selection was to be made at a meeting of the local party next week, has that news been superceded?

 

[monkers]

I'd understood selection was to be made at a meeting of the local party next week, has that news been superceded?

Yes, the local and national party have now agreed it.

 

[monkers]

Starmer previously had a much larger majority, but lost a lot of it at the last election to a pro Palestine independent candidate who was promoted locally by an organised campaign. Not sure what that means this time and how organised the independent vote will be, but Labour are highly likely to win.

Conjecture perhaps on my part, but I think if that same independent candidate stands again, that could negatively impact Polanski's chances. Likewise Count Binface who as far as I know has not declared, but has hinted with this comment. “Can't get a moment's peace on this bloody planet.”

Further conjecture, Channel 4 investigators have revealed more Reform Party corruption which has been reported to Met Police. Dennis Skinner once said something along the lines of ''when post boys get caught the first thing they do is fire the servants''. Sure enough two Reform officials have been booted. Farage was heard (and on film) thanking people for the under the counter donations.

https://www.channel4.com/news/exclu...over-celebrating-secret-new-foreign-donations

I have to feel sorry for Count Binface. He made inroads in Clacton with his best result, but might need to choose between standing there again or in his home constituency especially if there is any overlap between the two campaigning periods.

 

[secretsqirrel]

Starmer previously had a much larger majority, but lost a lot of it at the last election to a pro Palestine independent candidate who was promoted locally by an organised campaign. Not sure what that means this time and how organised the independent vote will be, but Labour are highly likely to win.

The other thing maybe worth noting is that in the last GE, Labour didn’t do much campaigning in the safe seats such as Starmer’s as they targeted specific seats for the greater impact. And this proved to be very efficient at working FPTP.

As this is a by-election they can throw as much into the campaign as they want.

 

[Beebo]

Conjecture perhaps on my part, but I think if that same independent candidate stands again, that could negatively impact Polanski's chances. Likewise Count Binface who as far as I know has not declared, but has hinted with this comment. “Can't get a moment's peace on this bloody planet.”

Further conjecture, Channel 4 investigators have revealed more Reform Party corruption which has been reported to Met Police. Dennis Skinner once said something along the lines of ''when post boys get caught the first thing they do is fire the servants''. Sure enough two Reform officials have been booted. Farage was heard (and on film) thanking people for the under the counter donations.

https://www.channel4.com/news/exclu...over-celebrating-secret-new-foreign-donations

I have to feel sorry for Count Binface. He made inroads in Clacton with his best result, but might need to choose between standing there again or in his home constituency especially if there is any overlap between the two campaigning periods.

I don’t think there is much mileage in it for Binface at the moment.
He had gained maximum publicity already.

 

[Bromptonaut]

Yes, the local and national party have now agreed it.

Oddly, I can't find that reported and Wiki still says he needs to be approved by the local party.

 

[monkers]

As a GPEW member, I receive information by internal email. An earier one used the word 'selected'. In the meantime I have further mails which seem to row back from that. I probably shouldn't do this but this is the construction used in the last mail I received.

One year on from the election of Zack Polanksi, another huge breakthrough is in our sights.

The Holborn and St Pancras By-Election is a brilliant chance to elect the first London Green MP and show that only the Greens are offering real hope and real change.

The election will be a referendum on ending 'rip off Britain' and stopping Burnham backtracking on housing, climate and taxing the mega rich.

I've looked back at previous mails to try to make sense of it. From ''selected'' they seemed to row back to say ''nomination accepted'', now with the row back to a mention of his name which looks like an intimation of his selection rather than a statement of fact.

It's looks to me as if there was some attempt to rush the system, and that somebody has intervened with 'what about due process'.

So my apologies. I may have been led to a position of jumping the shark. Whatever the true position I assure I did not intend to misinform.

 

[briantrumpet]

As a GPEW member, I receive information by internal email. An earier one used the word 'selected'. In the meantime I have further mails which seem to row back from that. I probably shouldn't do this but this is the construction used in the last mail I received.



I've looked back at previous mails to try to make sense of it. From ''selected'' they seemed to row back to say ''nomination accepted'', now with the row back to a mention of his name which looks like an intimation of his selection rather than a statement of fact.

It's looks to me as if there was some attempt to rush the system, and that somebody has intervened with 'what about due process'.

So my apologies. I may have been led to a position of jumping the shark. Whatever the true position I assure I did not intend to misinform.

🙃 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jumping_the_shark