Population decline

[icowden]

Why do we need to be beholden to a middle-eastern religion anyway?
It's not exactly very British.

How dare you sir! It's a British as St George himself!

 

[All uphill]

The UK has long depended on immigration, and has had fits of the panics about immigrants for just as long.

I live in South West England, where one in six people, when asked, say they have at least one Irish grandparent, for example.

I won't be around to see it, but I fully expect the children and grandchildren of more recent immigrants will become part of the mix.

How do we get through the next fifty years? Remove the vote from the over 70s? Double IHT? Build lots more houses?

 

[BoldonLad]

Whilst I wouldn't claim to have all the answers (or even some) my underlying attitude is that the population of the world is too high. Too many people causing issues we seem unable to address.

Specifically UK/west does have an issue with population demographics but that is of our making and the solution might cost, might affect our standard of living but we are starting from a pretty high standard compared to much of the world.

We need to adjust the mismanagement that is aggravating the challenges we face regarding demographgics. eg older people bed blocking in NHS hospitals because our care services are in a dire state (and still Labour are only focusing on NHS rather than including care).

I tend to discriminate between where the population comes from (native born, immigration, refugee). Most are people, all pretty much seeking the same thing so treat everybody as people and drop this daft "nationalism".

Maybe part of our (UK & west) problems is our obsession of "growth" which on a highly populated planet with limited resources is unsustainable. Drop to -0.1% growth and it's economic disaster, redundancies, food banks overstretched (OK they are already overstretched), etc. To me an economic system dependent on growth and inflation is unsustainable.

(That said I'm no economist and welcome alternative views to consider and maybe change my own thoughts).

Ian

Agree entirely with the first bolded paragraph.

The second bolded phrase.... Is the current "hump" in the demographic, of UK, and Europe, not largely the result of the "baby boom" after WW2? There will, presumably, be further "humps" (gradually decreasing in size), at approximately 25 year intervals, until the situation normalises.

 

[BoldonLad]

Why do we need to be beholden to a middle-eastern religion anyway?

It's not exactly very British.

Why do we need to be beholden to ANY religion?

 

[BoldonLad]

This is perfectly valid. The issue isn't about reducing the world's population which would be a good thing, its about the way our society is structured. Historically there were always more working people than pensioners. It therefore made sense that the NI contributions made by workers today, paid for the pensions and care of the pensioners today. The NI you pay isn't ring fenced for "you" it's used for your mum/dad/ grandparents etc.

However, with improvements in healthcare and changes in working practices, instead of dropping down dead the year after retirement, people are going on to live for many more years. As an illustration of polar opposites, my grandfather died at 65, the year he retired. My grandmother died at 103, some 43 years after she retired. She milked that final salary pension for all it was worth.

So as the working population reduces, there is less money to pay for the aging population which is becoming much greater than the number of people able to support it. The only way to balance that is either to reduce pensions & care payments which is very unpopular, or to increase NI and taxes to pay for it - or to increase the population by welcoming immigrants (especially if there are job roles where we have a shortage of workers).

Unless the immigrants who are "welcomed" return "home" before retirement, will this approach just lead to further imbalances in the future, as the increased population brought in to look after todays elderly, become tomorrows elderly. Unless that is, we go for exponentional population growth.

 

[BoldonLad]

The UK has long depended on immigration, and has had fits of the panics about immigrants for just as long.

I live in South West England, where one in six people, when asked, say they have at least one Irish grandparent, for example.

I won't be around to see it, but I fully expect the children and grandchildren of more recent immigrants will become part of the mix.

How do we get through the next fifty years? Remove the vote from the over 70s? Double IHT? Build lots more houses?

You missed out compulsory "assisted dying" for the over 70's 🙂

 

[Ian H]

... "humps" (gradually decreasing in size), at approximately 25 year intervals, until the situation normalises.

That should reduce the population.

 

[BoldonLad]

That should reduce the population.

Doesn't that depend on the birth rate vs death rate (ie replacement rate) ?

Although in my view, population growth is not a good idea in terms of climate change issues, in the case of demographic profile, it, is, in my view, imbalances in the profile which are the issue, not, necessarily absolute numbers.

 

[bobzmyunkle]

Unless that is, we go for exponentional population growth.

Ponzi scheme.

 

[BoldonLad]

Ponzi scheme.

I wasn't suggesting it as a "solution" 🙂

 

[Psamathe]

Although in my view, population growth is not a good idea in terms of climate change issues, in the case of demographic profile, it, is, in my view, imbalances in the profile which are the issue, not, necessarily absolute numbers.

As with other potential disastrous challenges facing humanity, we've recognised the problem for years, know the solutions, have all the technology and knowledge to solve the problem yet fail to address it. Same as for Climate Change, same with antibiotic resistance, etc. Only conclusion is the human race is stupid and incapable and deserves the disaster it's bringing on itself. Dumb in the extreme.

Ian

 

[C R]

You missed out compulsory "assisted dying" for the over 70's 🙂

It could be worse, Logan's Run

 

[Beebo]

Don’t worry. Uk will be uninhabitable by 2080.

https://apple.news/A6fcmZMmcRHOhcfrBPvKppw

 

[HMS_Dave]

I'm not saying that, I'm saying there are many able bodied retirees , who would be more than pleased to continue working beyond retirement age.

I think you'll find that a lot of able bodied people over the age of 55 struggle to get employment, particularly those who need re-skilling. No shortage of examples out there and it isn't a new phenomenon. There's a guidelines out there for employers but if you are found redundant and/or are jobless, getting back in can be an extremely difficult task.

The UK has long depended on immigration, and has had fits of the panics about immigrants for just as long.

I live in South West England, where one in six people, when asked, say they have at least one Irish grandparent, for example.

I won't be around to see it, but I fully expect the children and grandchildren of more recent immigrants will become part of the mix.

How do we get through the next fifty years? Remove the vote from the over 70s? Double IHT? Build lots more houses?

Immigration has formed a part of Western developing and developed economies for centuries. In 1850, the USA had 23 million people the Whig President Fillmore over saw a 1.7 million increase in immigrants and 10% of that population were foreign born. Then in the late 1800's early 1900's you have an influx if Italian's, approximately 5.5 million, who's sons and grandsons would form around 10% of the US Armed Forces in WW2. Incidentally, 8% of that army were Polish Americans. If goes on really, i'd be here all night...

The danger is when the natural order of what drives our economies is revoked and suddenly, you'll get rapid aging population with unique challenges we have yet to face.

 

[HMS_Dave]

I suppose really, Japan is going to face this sooner rather than later. The then PM Fumio Kishida said a couple of years ago that "Japan is standing on the verge of whether we can continue to function as a society" with regards to a low birth rate and a rapidly aging population. Despite this, i think their advancements and their willingness in technology can fill in many of the gaps in productivity using robots, machinary and automation, and they have a number of innovative social retirement schemes and care programs to help reduce the impact on the economy.
Im not sure the UK will be such a forgiving place though. State pension age increases will continue per generation and nothing ground breaking has been put on the table. Looking ahead, we'd probably have an army of Beige AI Robots, built by the offspring of Austin Rover employees that will inevitably overheat and fall to bits when trying to take the plastic wrapper of the bog rolls.