Reform, and the death of the Tory Party

[Psamathe]

So which party would do a good job, in your view?

Maybe highlights the problem with UK politicians these days (maybe more widespread than just the UK). The capability of our politicians is at best "inadequate" and it really has deteriorated to "none of the above".

 

[Xipe Totec]

I would like to see how the c*nt fairs in Scotland.

You'll find out in 4 months.

I've got a bad feeling about this.

In 2024 - just 18 months ago - the NOTSNP campaign was successful enough to oust 37 Westminster MPs. The SNP are polling worse now that they were then, and on top of that John Swinney is espousing an SNP 1&2 strategy which statistically has a 0.5% chance of delivering the impossible-by-design SNP overall majority he says he's aiming for, and will, if the SNP do well in the constituencies, hand list seats to opposition parties. Based on Labour's present polling, that will mostly be Reform.

As the attacks on the Scottish Government ramp up (it's only January, they're not even out of first gear yet) and every media outlet is increasingly saturated with the latest Reform scoop & bogus anti-migrant rhetoric, this isn't all that likely to swing back in the SNP's favour.

While I don't think Reform will do well enough in constituencies to be able to form a government, they will make gains, meaning there's a possibility of a mutant ReFuk/Tory/Labour coalition of some sort being able to do so. And if you doubt that could happen, just look at the various councils across Scotland where Labour & Tory buddy-up to 'keep the Nats out'. That's a unifying factor that will always overcome their increasingly dwindling political differences.

So no - that's no moon.

 

[Pblakeney]

I've got a bad feeling about this.

In 2024 - just 18 months ago - the NOTSNP campaign was successful enough to oust 37 Westminster MPs. The SNP are polling worse now that they were then, and on top of that John Swinney is espousing an SNP 1&2 strategy which statistically has a 0.5% chance of delivering the impossible-by-design SNP overall majority he says he's aiming for, and will, if the SNP do well in the constituencies, hand list seats to opposition parties. Based on Labour's present polling, that will mostly be Reform.

As the attacks on the Scottish Government ramp up (it's only January, they're not even out of first gear yet) and every media outlet is increasingly saturated with the latest Reform scoop & bogus anti-migrant rhetoric, this isn't all that likely to swing back in the SNP's favour.

While I don't think Reform will do well enough in constituencies to be able to form a government, they will make gains, meaning there's a possibility of a mutant ReFuk/Tory/Labour coalition of some sort being able to do so. And if you doubt that could happen, just look at the various councils across Scotland where Labour & Tory buddy-up to 'keep the Nats out'. That's a unifying factor that will always overcome their increasingly dwindling political differences.

So no - that's no moon.

IIRC, Holyrood was specifically designed to form coalitions. The SNP winning outright has been an anomaly. There is every chance of Reform being part of a coalition. I’d guess the chance of outright power is extremely remote though.

 

[Xipe Totec]

IIRC, Holyrood was specifically designed to form coalitions. The SNP winning outright has been an anomaly. There is every chance of Reform being part of a coalition. I’d guess the chance of outright power is extremely remote though.

My point exactly. The 2011 SNP overall majority - the only time it's ever happened - was a statistical fluke and Swinney must know perfectly well it won't happen again. There's only one rational explanation for pushing an SNP 1&2 vote, and that isn't what he says it is.

 

[All uphill]

Maybe highlights the problem with UK politicians these days (maybe more widespread than just the UK). The capability of our politicians is at best "inadequate" and it really has deteriorated to "none of the above".

But we insist on having politicians who lie to us. We can't face reality.
We get the politicians we deserve.

 

[Rusty Nails]

So which party would do a good job, in your view?

I’ll wait to make my mind up in 2029. A day is a long time in politics, and none of them fill me with confidence at the moment.

 

[briantrumpet]

Haha.

 

[briantrumpet]

But we insist on having politicians who lie to us. We can't face reality.
We get the politicians we deserve.

...and we pretend that unicorns exist, instead of voting for the least-worst party, flaws and all.

The electorate reminds me of the Tacoma Bridge... swings to the side that promised unicorns, unicorns don't arrive, so swing the other way, promising differently coloured unicorns.... electorate complain even louder about wanting unicorns, swings the other. In the end the suspension cables of politics can't hold up the unrealistic carriageway.



God, that's a terrible metaphor, not least as Labour isn't terribly left wing in its current form, but you get the drift. It's destructive because of the electorate's unrealistic expectations and voting for unrealistic promises.

 

[TailWindHome]

So which party would do a good job, in your view?

Honestly have no idea who I'd vote for if I lived over there.

Gimme a party with socially liberal views, business-friendly, recognise that for the next decade 'fixing public services' is more important than 'lowering tax', and that demonising immigrants while handing out millions of visas was a bad idea & we need to take a beat and focus on integrating those we brought here.

 

[All uphill]

View attachment 12309


Honestly have no idea who I'd vote for if I lived over there.

Gimme a party with socially liberal views, business-friendly, recognise that for the next decade 'fixing public services' is more important than 'lowering tax', and that demonising immigrants while handing out millions of visas was a bad idea & we need to take a beat and focus on integrating those we brought here.

You have my vote!

 

[Stevo 666]

I'm wondering about the MP for Hull who is up in arms over changes to jury trials.

Possibly, there's a bit of speculation as expected. Guess there will be the big unveiling if and when it happens.

 

[Stevo 666]

I’ll wait to make my mind up in 2029. A day is a long time in politics, and none of them fill me with confidence at the moment.

I'm not sure what is going to change enough by 2029 for you.

 

[Stevo 666]

Maybe highlights the problem with UK politicians these days (maybe more widespread than just the UK). The capability of our politicians is at best "inadequate" and it really has deteriorated to "none of the above".

Not sure about the phrase 'these days'.

 

[briantrumpet]

Farage chickens out and withdraws from the scheduled appearance with Kuenssberg. Suggests that he knows his position is very shaky that he won't even face up to some LK softball questioning.

 

[BoldonLad]

I've got a bad feeling about this.

In 2024 - just 18 months ago - the NOTSNP campaign was successful enough to oust 37 Westminster MPs. The SNP are polling worse now that they were then, and on top of that John Swinney is espousing an SNP 1&2 strategy which statistically has a 0.5% chance of delivering the impossible-by-design SNP overall majority he says he's aiming for, and will, if the SNP do well in the constituencies, hand list seats to opposition parties. Based on Labour's present polling, that will mostly be Reform.

As the attacks on the Scottish Government ramp up (it's only January, they're not even out of first gear yet) and every media outlet is increasingly saturated with the latest Reform scoop & bogus anti-migrant rhetoric, this isn't all that likely to swing back in the SNP's favour.

While I don't think Reform will do well enough in constituencies to be able to form a government, they will make gains, meaning there's a possibility of a mutant ReFuk/Tory/Labour coalition of some sort being able to do so. And if you doubt that could happen, just look at the various councils across Scotland where Labour & Tory buddy-up to 'keep the Nats out'. That's a unifying factor that will always overcome their increasingly dwindling political differences.

So no - that's no moon.

Is what you describe not the. inevitable outcome of voting against a particular party, rather than for a particular party?

IMHO, that is what happened in last UK General Election (quite understandably, perhaps), but, the next development. is that the "winner" Governs by clickbait, not by a declared Policy.