Rusty Nails
Country Member
Magnified a thousand times by exploiting social media which is not a good medium for getting over logic. But great for rumours and soundbites.
Reform, and the death of the Tory Party
- Thread starter briantrumpet
- Start date
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Magnified a thousand times by exploiting social media which is not a good medium for getting over logic. But great for rumours and soundbites.
AuroraSaab
Shaman
Local elections are often protest votes. I'd be surprised if they turned into votes for a Reform MP, unless the Tories went nuts and stood down their candidates in a deal or something.
Very difficult to predict. Personal view is that Conservatives will be changing leader before the next election and as things will still be looking bad for them, whoever takes over might be more sympathetic to election pacts, in effect cut their losses to avoid oblivion. Maybe not.
My problem is that "wishful thinking" can affect what one thinks might happen ... That said at the moment I can't dream any outcome I think would turn out well for the country (across all parties).
Ian
BoldonLad
Old man on a bike. Not a member of a clique.
- Location
- South Tyneside
In the area I live in (and, I assume many others) the Tories are irrelevant and have been for years. The votes being lost to Reform are Labour votes, there simply were not enough Tory Votes to switch to Reform to produce the kind of upheaval that has occurred.
But things can change. Where I live was a massive Conservative majority, totally safe seat, no other parties stood any sort of chance ... until 2024 and now I have a Green MP.
Ian
BoldonLad
Old man on a bike. Not a member of a clique.
- Location
- South Tyneside
Quite. "my" area was solid Labour, the joke used to be, they did not count the votes, they weighed them, what I am saying is:
There is no way a Conservative will displace the Sitting Labour MP (or Councillor)
If there is an upheaval and the sitting Labour Mp (or Councillor) is unseated, it will be by a Reform Candidate, or, maybe, a Green
Labour are in danger of paying the price of being complacent and not listening to the electorate.
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First Aspect
Well-Known Member
The Tories are plumbing the depths at the moment.
Their leader went to the dispatch box this week with a key argument that the new EU deal was a bad deal because the Tories would have negotiated a better deal than the Tories negotiated.
It needs a special term to describe a competence such that barely anyone registers she's spoken. Something so meaningless it doesn't matter if you turn the sound off.
How about "noncompetent"?
Their leader went to the dispatch box this week with a key argument that the new EU deal was a bad deal because the Tories would have negotiated a better deal than the Tories negotiated.
It needs a special term to describe a competence such that barely anyone registers she's spoken. Something so meaningless it doesn't matter if you turn the sound off.
How about "noncompetent"?
secretsqirrel
Regular
Can Death of the Tory Party and Assisted Dying threads be merged? 
Stevo 666
Well-Known Member
I see it ĺike this: the best chance Labour have of staying ìn power is a split of the right of centre vote between the Tories and Reform. Especially considering how few votes they got at the last GE (fewer than Corbyn at the previous one) and how poorly they have performed in their first 10 months or so. If the Tory vote does collapse then IMO most of those votes will probably go to Reform.
So unless you want to see a bloke called Nigel at a lectern outside 10 Downing Street in 2029, careful what you wish for.
So unless you want to see a bloke called Nigel at a lectern outside 10 Downing Street in 2029, careful what you wish for.
secretsqirrel
Regular
I agree. The Tories desperately need to raise their game tho’, they are under performing as opposition. The only heavy weights they have left are skulking on the back benches saying nothing, while Reform suck up all the oxygen.
First Aspect
Well-Known Member
The Tory vote has already collapsed hasn't it?
Personally, I think more votes than you might think will go to the Lib Dems and Green, and that 30% is the new 40%.
If immigration numbers continue to fall, that will take the wind out of Reform's sails. So too will council service cuts enacted by barking mad Reform councillors and the odd flagrant racist that sneaked through their intensive vetting procedures.
The Tories will in the meantime figure out that Badenoch is less likeable than Michael Howard, and more intrinsically irritating than William Hauge when he was 12.
Bromptonaut
Rohan Man
- Location
- Bugbrooke, Northants
Expand?
Xipe Totec
Something nasty in the woodshed
The clue & context is in the word "understand". That's all the explanation you need.
the snail
Active Member
The danger is that with a conservative party in disarray and a deeply uninspiring right-wing labour government, people won't get out and vote for the two main parties. Ukip did well in the euro elections because nobody else bothered to vote in them. Trump won in the U.S. because the democrats failed to get people to vote. If Starmer fails to deliver for those in the bottom half who have been left behind, then Reform are a real threat.
