Reform, and the death of the Tory Party

[Rusty Nails]

Not sure what the optimum level is but back in the 90's I think the level was around 100k pa and economic growth did not seem to suffer. Fairly clear to me that it is currently too high. There is also the question of who we let in as well as how many.

Same question to you...

I do not claim to be an expert in the optimum levels of population growth necessary in a modern economy, and that is the reason why you will not read any comments from me about whether net migration or immigration levels are too high or low. I have just, naively, imagined that those calling for lower levels had some expert or inside knowledge on what those levels should be. It seems I was wrong, so " stands to reason" must be the answer.

I believe that any country must be in control of the numbers coming in, but have to trust in those in power to ensure we have the systems in place to define and manage those numbers effectively, and sympathetically in the case of asylum seekers. It seems clear given both the uncertainty over the true numbers of immigrants and obvious public disquiet seized upon and exploited by chancers such as Farage, that successive governments by their actions and inactions have failed in this responsibility.

 

[All uphill]

I do not claim to be an expert in the optimum levels of population growth necessary in a modern economy, and that is the reason why you will not read any comments from me about whether net migration or immigration levels are too high or low. I have just, naively, imagined that those calling for lower levels had some expert or inside knowledge on what those levels should be. It seems I was wrong, so " stands to reason" must be the answer.

I believe that any country must be in control of the numbers coming in, but have to trust in those in power to ensure we have the systems in place to define and manage those numbers effectively, and sympathetically in the case of asylum seekers. It seems clear given both the uncertainty over the true numbers of immigrants and obvious public disquiet seized upon and exploited by chancers such as Farage, that successive governments by their actions and inactions have failed in this responsibility.

The correct answer to "How many immigrants?" is the number that will get politicians elected.

It's a political question not an economic one. In my opinion, of course.

 

[midlandsgrimpeur]

Good old Reform, proud patriots looking out for British interests.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cj6xwy015ngo

 

[BoldonLad]

Point 1. IIRC we have never counted those leaving. Legally or otherwise.
Point 2. There is a percentage who come in illegally, work illegally, never pay taxes, and never receive benefits. Fairly sure they'd get treated at A&E if they just rocked up but that's just my perception.

If so how is "Net Migration" calculated ?

 

[icowden]

If so how is "Net Migration" calculated ?

https://www.gov.uk/government/publi...net-migration/net-migration-report-accessible

Net migration is a measure of the difference between the number of people moving into the UK (immigrants) and the number of people leaving it (emigrants) during a specific period, usually a year. However, rather than counting every migrant in the statistics, only those who are expected to remain in the UK for a minimum defined period of time are included. The ONS, who produce the UK net migration statistics, use the United Nations’ (UN) definition of a long-term migrant which refers to those “who move from their country of usual residence for a period of at least 12 months”. While this is conceptually clear, it can be difficult to accurately estimate in practice as for some migrants the expected length of stay will not be clear.

This 12-month definition, which is standard in many countries, means that many individuals who enter or leave the UK with short-term objectives are excluded from the net migration statistics. This includes workers on the seasonal worker visa (who can remain in the UK for only 6 months), students enrolled for short courses and visitors requiring a visa for entry. This is not a comment on relative contribution to British society nor the value to the UK of particular visa routes. The net migration statistics also incorporate British nationals leaving the UK to live, work, or study abroad for a year or more, and those returning after such a spell.

 

[Rusty Nails]

If so how is "Net Migration" calculated ?

Best estimate based on known numbers plus a contingency for possible unknown numbers.

Welcome to the world of government statistics as it is not as we would like it to be. I doubt that any government outside totalitarian ones with closed borders are any different.

 

[Pblakeney]

If so how is "Net Migration" calculated ?

Precisely.
As upthread, it is guesstimated.

 

[briantrumpet]

Nothing to see here, I'm sure.

 

[Xipe Totec]

 

[BoldonLad]

https://www.gov.uk/government/publi...net-migration/net-migration-report-accessible

So, if we don’t record how many leave (which was the claim in the post I replied to) how do we arrive at the number to subtract?

 

[BoldonLad]

Best estimate based on known numbers plus a contingency for possible unknown numbers.

Welcome to the world of government statistics as it is not as we would like it to be. I doubt that any government outside totalitarian ones with closed borders are any different.

The claim in the post that I replied to was that we did not count how many left.

 

[BoldonLad]

Precisely.
As upthread, it is guesstimated.

Alternatively “we don’t know”. So much for relying on the data.

 

[CXRAndy]

View attachment 10189

I hear the Swan has launched legal claims for Swanophobia against the boy. High chance of success

 

[Pblakeney]

Alternatively “we don’t know”. So much for relying on the data.

Which was my original query way upthread. Now apparently confirmed.

 

[Pinno718]

James O'Brien pulls Farage supporter to bits: on LBC


View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qAKzoGP8L_o