Starmer's vision quest

[First Aspect]

Of course it's a broad church, as the Tories used to be. But a big chunk of them have always been (to use a cliché) the liberal left - academics, educated well-off types, students, etc., and who were instrumental in giving Starmer his massive majority in 2024. They feel utterly betrayed by the overt anti-migrant rhetoric. I know, because I've really just described my bubble. Mahmood telling them - or rather, us - to FRO, only confirms the sense of betrayal.

As I've said previously, their massive majority have them some leeway to 'change the conversation', with hard data to prove their points... instead, they've just agreed with the prejudices, despite the data.

I don't think the immigration thing is the issue.

The issue was campaigning on change and then going full Osbourne austerity as soon as they got in. Then they did it again a year later.

In between they showed weakness against naive backbenchers who want to carry on spending like it's 1999.

The immigration policies were a more recent hail Mary attempt to improve polling.

 

[Rusty Nails]

But a big chunk of them have always been (to use a cliché) the liberal left - academics, educated well-off types, students, etc., and who were instrumental in giving Starmer his massive majority in 2024.

Probably the same chunk who are convinced they know best what is good for the other, historically larger, chunk.

Therein lies the challenge for Starmer...keeping enough of the support of those two chunks to win the next GE.

P.s. the funeral didn't have too many academics present and the few well-off types didn't get there via education.

 

[Rusty Nails]

You’re throwing away what should be safe votes to chase lost votes you are unlikely to get back

That's only if you assume that Reform will continue to keep up their popularity when people see that the number of brown faces and foreign accents hasn't significantly reduced with them in power...and their own financial lot hasn't improved.

Personally I think that politics has changed and the concept of 'natural supporters' has gone and that people are more likely to bed-hop between parties depending on issues that are important to them at the time and the PR/Populist approach of the parties.

 

[briantrumpet]

Therein lies the challenge for Starmer...keeping enough of the support of those two chunks to win the next GE.

Aye. But up till now he's not only taken one chunk for granted, he has (by proxy, as that's his style) told them to FRO.

FWIW, here's a left-wing academic (a professor at UEA) I follow, who's voted Labour all his voting life. He was already pissed off with them on Brexit, disability, and protest.

 

[Rusty Nails]

Aye. But up till now he's not only taken one chunk for granted, he has (by proxy, as that's his style) told them to FRO.

FWIW, here's a left-wing academic (a professor at UEA) I follow, who's voted Labour all his voting life. He was already pissed off with them on Brexit, disability, and protest.

View attachment 15003

I get your point but there are probably fewer left-wing professors at UEA than factory workers, labourers or call centre workers to lose the votes of, so you retain the moral high ground but lose the power to influence/implement anything.

 

[briantrumpet]

I get your point but there are probably fewer left-wing professors at UEA than factory workers, labourers or call centre workers to lose the votes of, so you retain the moral high ground but lose the power to influence/implement anything.

But I think the point is that the people you mention and whom Starmer is chasing are mostly lost to Reform anyway, and the bigger loss *now* is on the lefter side (see the John Curtis analysis). And, as I say, Starmer seems to be taking that side completely for granted, and the Greens are cashing in and hoovering them up.

My other anecdata is all the posh people where I live (I'm not one of the posh ones, honest), and the ward has completely flipped from Tory (for generations) to Labour. So the image of Labour being mostly labourers and call-centre workers is also flawed. Ironically, posh people can also care about the plight of labourers and call-centre workers, it seems. Well, up to a point, I guess, as long as there's a Waitrose branch not too far away, dahling.

 

[Rusty Nails]

But I think the point is that the people you mention and whom Starmer is chasing are mostly lost to Reform anyway, and the bigger loss *now* is on the lefter side (see the John Curtis analysis). And, as I say, Starmer seems to be taking that side completely for granted, and the Greens are cashing in and hoovering them up.

My other anecdata is all the posh people where I live (I'm not one of the posh ones, honest), and the ward has completely flipped from Tory (for generations) to Labour. So the image of Labour being mostly labourers and call-centre workers is also flawed. Ironically, posh people can also care about the plight of labourers and call-centre workers, it seems. Well, up to a point, I guess, as long as there's a Waitrose branch not too far away, dahling.

Those votes lost to Reform has led to the current awful state of Labour support (and to the falling Tory support). It is not enough to focus solely on stopping further losses as without regaining some of those lost voters they will not regain power. If anything the loss of voters to Reform has been caused exactly by taking their side for granted, so the big problem of Starmer's Labour has been a general tendency to take votes for granted after a landslide GE victory.

You are very lucky as I have to drive three miles to get to my nearest Waitrose.

 

[briantrumpet]

You are very lucky as I have to drive three miles to get to my nearest Waitrose.

Serious stuff. It's a five-mile cycle for me, in my organic knitted flip-flops.

 

[Beebo]

so Labour still came 2nd. Lies, damn lies and statistics.
When have. the party in power ever won a mid term local election.
But worse than that. When have the main opposition slumped to 4th place?

 

[Stevo 666]

So about 4 pages back I posted.
There have been numerous posts reinforcing the Reform trope, but only one, maybe 2 posts trying to answer the important part of my post - how do the traditional parties regain the trust of the electorate.
Staggering.

And entirely predictable.

 

[TailWindHome]

And entirely predictable.

Uh-oh.
Fun police arrived.

 

[TailWindHome]

Man's delusional

And, the EU youth mobility thing...had he not done that already?

 

[Stevo 666]

Uh-oh.
Fun police arrived.

What fun?

 

[TailWindHome]

What fun?

I'm no grass

 

[Stevo 666]

I'm no grass

Fair enough. I didn't see any, so no need for the police here.