Starmer's vision quest

[First Aspect]

Whilst polling has an associated error margin, for some issues I wonder is human psychology might introduce unpredictable effects or rather resistance to change.

eg it's very easy for me to say I'd happily put all my savings into an investment with a 20% pa return but come the time I have to put my signature of the "approve investment" form I might pause and reflect on the risks.

On the independence polling, difficulty is that for some time people have not been making the case for and against. My impression is SNP say they are pursuing independence but economic assessments, social assessments, challenges, etc. are not being analysed, presented & debated and those could change what is for now an answer to a pollster without any impact.

There isnt a positive economic case, that's the problem.

In the early 2020s they spent millions on white papers that contradicted the case they made 6 years earlier, and privately there were leaks to journalists that the SNP know it would be economically disastrous for some time.

I think a lot of Scottish voters would put up with that in principle, but the opportunity has been there for the best part of 20 years to show how effective devolution could be, but instead they've over spent and squandered the opportunity. It shows that the effect of autonomy is precisely the opposite of what they want it to be.

The only argument now is somehow that with even more power and less money things would actually be better.

It is like Brexit in miniature.

 

[CXRAndy]

It's funny how people seem so keen to discuss, pick apart & rubbish polling for something that is absolutely not going to happen. Wonder what that's about?

And does MAGAndy think that Nigel The Fascist would immediately cut Scotland free the very moment he boots in the door of No. 10?

Rude awakenings can be funny, can't they?

I don't know, just personal opinion. Be glad to get rid whinging windbags

 

[Psamathe]

It's funny how people seem so keen to discuss, pick apart & rubbish polling for something that is absolutely not going to happen. Wonder what that's about?

Is it also about an indication of dissatisfaction. One possible cause is those is Scotland not being happy about what's being done in Westminster and in Scotland they can consider breaking away (independence) whereas us in East Anglia don't really have that possibility so can't even consider it.

 

[Psamathe]

Whilst polling has an associated error margin, for some issues I wonder is human psychology might introduce unpredictable effects or rather resistance to change.

eg it's very easy for me to say I'd happily put all my savings into an investment with a 20% pa return but come the time I have to put my signature of the "approve investment" form I might pause and reflect on the risks.

On the independence polling, difficulty is that for some time people have not been making the case for and against. My impression is SNP say they are pursuing independence but economic assessments, social assessments, challenges, etc. are not being analysed, presented & debated and those could change what is for now an answer to a pollster without any impact.

There isnt a positive economic case, that's the problem.

I have no appreciation of reasons, justifications, impacts, etc. Thinking more that for more outlier options polling when you can't act can be subject to wider error.

In French Presidential elections you often find a more extreme politician getting through the 1st round because people are more prepared to vote "off-the-wall" because they know they'll be a 2nd round and that their 1st round vote isn't actually having any effect. Then 2nd round they suddenly realise "Gawd, what have we not quite done ..." and come back down to earth and in the 2nd round vote more sensibly.

Maybe similar with Independence or even (hopefully) Reform where with no ballot paper in front of them it's easy for people to overreact to a disastrous Westminster but faced with actually putting that "outlier"/long shot into reality suddenly becomes a lot harder. Of course Brexit somewhat trashes that idea.

 

[Xipe Totec]

Ah, I see, so your solution is to ignore the actual polling numbers. Alrighty then.

I will admit I am sometimes slower on the uptake than I would prefer, but having meditated (so to speak) on this, I think I understand where you're coming form.

You're reading the proportion of reponders who answer with 'don't know' as "Don't!!! No!!!"

Aren't you?

 

[First Aspect]

I will admit I am sometimes slower on the uptake than I would prefer, but having meditated (so to speak) on this, I think I understand where you're coming form.

You're reading the proportion of reponders who answer with 'don't know' as "Don't!!! No!!!"

Aren't you?

Not specifically, more that you seem to be suggesting that polling puts "yes" consistently ahead when weighted properly. By which I understand you to be saying that although polling shows otherwise, there is a Squintypendence algorithm to suggest that's not correct.

 

[CXRAndy]

Is it true Reform are on course to get 20+MSP seats in the next elections

 

[CXRAndy]

Labour making fresh air promises about clearing out illegal immigrant hotels, staying in pop up inflatable tents as soon as possible.

Too late Labour, your 🪿 is 🍗

 

[First Aspect]

Is it true Reform are on course to get 20+MSP seats in the next elections

They will either get them or they won't. But it doesn't seem completely out of the question given it is a more proportional system.

What I actually predict is the SNP will be the single largest party, but even when combined with the greens, short of an "independence" mandate.

They will then inevitably creep towards arguing that's a mandate anyway.

 

[Stevo 666]

I don't know, just personal opinion. Be glad to get rid whinging windbags

Shouldn't the English get a vote on it? 🙂

 

[CXRAndy]

Shouldn't the English get a vote on it? 🙂

The English would have overwhelmingly sided to rid us, missed opportunity