Starmer's vision quest

[TailWindHome]

The Kings Speech is tomorrow.

That iirc kicks off a week debating the government"s plan and what is by definition a confidence vote.

If mps really want him gone they start saying they'll vote no

 

[Stevo 666]

And yet interest rates haven't changed. How are you defining "crashed" ?
Kwarteng/Truss dropped the pound's value 8% against the dollar. Yields spiked hugely.

These current movements are very small and thus not concerning. Interest rates remain at 3.75%

As above, borrowing costs now higher than the Truss/Kwarteng event which lefties harp on about a fair bit - until now at least. And that's just the first signs of the markets anticipating what impact the next Labour leader will have.

 

[Psamathe]

As above, borrowing costs now higher than the Truss/Kwarteng event which lefties harp on about a fair bit - until now at least. And that's just the first signs of the markets anticipating what impact the next Labour leader will have.

And now Starmer declaring he's not stepping down and all those Labour MPs having gone public are hardly going to "OK, that's sorted then". so the uncertainly continues so rates are likely to stay high or even creep up.

Cabinet declaring they support Starmer is a bit of a non-event. Given they'd all lose their prestigious jobs were he to step down it would be a bit like turkeys voting for Christmas. Only ones likely to actually make a stand are those hoping to replace him (or those with strength of character to believe they can replace him).

 

[icowden]

As above, borrowing costs now higher than the Truss/Kwarteng event which lefties harp on about a fair bit - until now at least.

We harp on about it because they farked over millions of people by trashing interest rates and devaluing the pound. No-one gives a flying fark about cost of Govt borrowing until it hits them in the pocket.

My mortgage interest rate pre-Truss was 2.1%. My interest rate post-truss is 4%. Pre Truss I was expecting to remortgage to around £1500 a month. Thanks to the vacuous non-entity I'm paying £2000 a month. That's a big difference. Lots of people were hit by that and were rightly peeved.

Base rate of interest has not changed despite the market jitters and if it does, it will be in the order of 0.25% not 2% or more.
So yes "lefties" like me who are centre-right will continue harping on about the gross incompetence of the Tories.

 

[icowden]

And now Starmer declaring he's not stepping down and all those Labour MPs having gone public are hardly going to "OK, that's sorted then". so the uncertainly continues so rates are likely to stay high or even creep up.

Disagree. Certainty returns in that Starmer isn't throwing in the towel. Therefore consistency.

 

[Psamathe]

And now Starmer declaring he's not stepping down and all those Labour MPs having gone public are hardly going to "OK, that's sorted then". so the uncertainly continues so rates are likely to stay high or even creep up.

Disagree. Certainty returns in that Starmer isn't throwing in the towel. Therefore consistency.

Might be. The aspect I think maybe important is that an individual (and those dependent on that individual) declaring that are going to do what they want does not make it so. To a degree the stability is outside Starmer's control as so many have publicly declared their wish he no longer be PM.

The borrowing rates are impacted by lenders worried about "the Fiscal Rules" and what might happen to them were a more left wing oriented PM to take over. Thus they could be stabilised were the main contenders (eg Streeting, Rayner, Burnham, maybe Mahmood and Miliband) declare their support for the current fiscal rules.

 

[icowden]

Might be. The aspect I think maybe important is that an individual (and those dependent on that individual) declaring that are going to do what they want does not make it so. To a degree the stability is outside Starmer's control as so many have publicly declared their wish he no longer be PM.

Unless they actually put it in writing, it's just bleating.

 

[Psamathe]

Might be. The aspect I think maybe important is that an individual (and those dependent on that individual) declaring that are going to do what they want does not make it so. To a degree the stability is outside Starmer's control as so many have publicly declared their wish he no longer be PM.

Unless they actually put it in writing, it's just bleating.

They are "just bleating" now. Ms Reeves has changed the fiscal rules as per her wishes and can change then again at any time. Since being first introduced they have been changed 9 times. So it's more about lenders believing than any contractual provable document.

 

[Psamathe]

Surprised the elephant in the (cabinet) room wasn't discussed in the cabinet.

 

[Shortfall]

Was the Straight of Homuz open then?

What rate of interest are the other countries who are similarly affected by the closure of The Straits of Hormuz able to borrow at?

 

[Dorset Boy]

We harp on about it because they farked over millions of people by trashing interest rates and devaluing the pound. No-one gives a flying fark about cost of Govt borrowing until it hits them in the pocket.

My mortgage interest rate pre-Truss was 2.1%. My interest rate post-truss is 4%. Pre Truss I was expecting to remortgage to around £1500 a month. Thanks to the vacuous non-entity I'm paying £2000 a month. That's a big difference. Lots of people were hit by that and were rightly peeved.

Base rate of interest has not changed despite the market jitters and if it does, it will be in the order of 0.25% not 2% or more.
So yes "lefties" like me who are centre-right will continue harping on about the gross incompetence of the Tories.

Interest rates from 2009 to 2022 were abnormal. Borrowing was effectively free. We were already begining to see a normalisation of rates in 2022 but the Truss budget accelerated the process.
Then add in the inflation and the BoE only having one tool to try to curb it, raising the base rate.
So you are totally wrong to solely blame the tories, especially as you were clearly benefitting from the abnormally low mortgage rates from 2009 to 2022.
Historically the base rate has been between 4% and 5%, and that's looking back over 350 years.
So normal mortgage rates are 4% -7% pa.

What interest rate were you paying when you took out your first mortgage?

And as I said before, the base rate only changes when the MPC meet - that's 5 weeks away. But continue to ignore that facts.

 

[midlandsgrimpeur]

Surprised the elephant in the (cabinet) room wasn't discussed in the cabinet.

View attachment 15054

I would be very surprised if Starmer agrees to resign/step aside. If he goes he will have to be usurped in all likelihood, which would be the worst possible outcome. I don't see Streeting having enough support and his ties to Mandelson and the more soft right side of the party won't help. If anything happens without Burnham getting his chance to put himself forward, that will also cause major rifts as he has a lot of support on the centre left side of things.

 

[Psamathe]

Interest rates from 2009 to 2022 were abnormal. Borrowing was effectively free. We were already begining to see a normalisation of rates in 2022 but the Truss budget accelerated the process. ...

I consider that those abnormally low interest rates pushed up the price of houses. Houses cost (high end) what people can afford which generally means what people can borrow which generally means what banks are prepared to lend. Abnormally low interest rates means borrowers can afford to pay more so banks will lend more so house prices increase.

 

[First Aspect]

What rate of interest are the other countries who are similarly affected by the closure of The Straits of Hormuz able to borrow at?

A rate proportional to the assessed risk it poses to each economy.

The political.uncertainty isn't adding very much, according to someone who sounded jolly clever on R4 this morning.

I personally don't know either way, but it does seem credible that all rates are up for all countries at the moment.

 

[Dorset Boy]

Jess Phillips has resigned