USA Midterms....

[Psamathe]

One interesting report I heard was that those who voted "Uncommitted" over Biden's Middle East actions/inactions at the stage the Democrats "chose" Biden also didn't turn out to vote. Numbers were not enough to be a reason for the outcome but apparently they didn't hold their noses and vote Democrat ie despite concern over what Trump might do, Harris' stance was not enough to swing them.

But then elections can be lost through several contributory factors.

(I've heard so many podcasts and reports from so many sources I'm afraid I can't remember the source for this - sorry).

Ian

 

[dutchguylivingintheuk]

One interesting report I heard was that those who voted "Uncommitted" over Biden's Middle East actions/inactions at the stage the Democrats "chose" Biden also didn't turn out to vote. Numbers were not enough to be a reason for the outcome but apparently they didn't hold their noses and vote Democrat ie despite concern over what Trump might do, Harris' stance was not enough to swing them.

But then elections can be lost through several contributory factors.

(I've heard so many podcasts and reports from so many sources I'm afraid I can't remember the source for this - sorry).

Ian

Exactly, the main point was Harris was nowhere and Trump was everywhere and indeed on the middle east was very clear.
But also Harris inaction became Trumps weapon for example when he questioned she ever worked at Mcdonalds and then goes to work at Mcdonalds himself(which was an Pr stunt on itself, the Mcdonalds in question was closed and all ''costumers'' where actors.) and later on rocking up in a garbage truck after Biden denounced him for calling puerto ricans ''Garbage'' But also he did appear on Joe Rogan and many other big podcast while Harris didn't.

All leading to the current result. Not to say it would have been better if she did would have been more active but at least she would have tried.

 

[All uphill]

I love the way that 4 days ago no one had any idea who would win/lose, and now, suddenly it's obvious that Harris would lose because, because, because....

Am I alone in being able to imagine what would be said if Harris had won?
A fresh look, positivity, woman, PoC, vs more of the usual DJT bitterness and resentment.

Funny how easy it is to make predictions after the event.

 

[C R]

I love the way that 4 days ago no one had any idea who would win/lose, and now, suddenly it's obvious that Harris would lose because, because, because....

Am I alone in being able to imagine what would be said if Harris had won?
A fresh look, positivity, woman, PoC, vs more of the usual DJT bitterness and resentment.

Funny how easy it is to make predictions after the event.

I did call it for Trump some time ago.

 

[All uphill]

I did call it for Trump some time ago.

True, you did.

 

[C R]

True, you did.

And most of the left were calling it too, for precisely the reasons it happened. Labour is falling on the same trap, and I fear it is too late for them to learn any lessons anyway.

https://www.theguardian.com/politic...rage-as-reform-uk-sets-sights-on-senedd-seats

 

[dutchguylivingintheuk]

I love the way that 4 days ago no one had any idea who would win/lose, and now, suddenly it's obvious that Harris would lose because, because, because....

I guess it depends on your bubble i was in the US and surely the usual big networks did indeed predict a ''landslide'' for Harris but as soon as you start talking to normal people you known those media is saying what they want to happens not what they think is going top happen.

Am I alone in being able to imagine what would be said if Harris had won?
A fresh look, positivity, woman, PoC, vs more of the usual DJT bitterness and resentment.

Well she started 0-2 behind first because of timing, right before the elections and second off she didn't have the best track record as Vice president.
A fresh look isn't true either she has a very long career in various departments of the US government.

 

[Rusty Nails]

And most of the left were calling it too, for precisely the reasons it happened. Labour is falling on the same trap, and I fear it is too late for them to learn any lessons anyway.

https://www.theguardian.com/politic...rage-as-reform-uk-sets-sights-on-senedd-seats

One common theme in the success of Trump, of Reform, and the rising success of far right parties across Europe is their weaponisation of immigration. Unfortunately this is a theme that appears to resonate at all levels, including the poorest, who feel that government policies do not help them.

No matter what the people who like to see themselves as the political and social 'intelligentsia' wish should be the issues that voters are concerned with it always seems to boil down to mainly these two: immigration and living costs. Everything else is peripheral when it comes to deciding elections.

The parties that the voters think have failed on these issues will suffer and those that promise the most success on them will win.

Sadly, populism is difficult to fight.

 

[bobzmyunkle]

as soon as you start talking to normal people

'normal people'? A bit like 'common sense' @dutchguylivingintheuk.

 

[dutchguylivingintheuk]

'normal people'? A bit like 'common sense' @dutchguylivingintheuk.

No i mean just normal poeple, not politicians, media, local goverment etc. etc etc. The likes of Harris and many other democrats(and republicans for that matter) like to surrounds themselves with certain kind of people, hence they get a warped worldview that leads to them not understanding the issues. I mean part of the fact the US still has ghetto's is the fact that the education system is funded from local resources so a very wealthy neighborhood is much better funded then a not wealthy area. which amongst other variables leads to crime.

Trump has found a way to appear very interested in these ''normal people'' and use that to his advantage.(and no i have no illusion that Trump is going to actually solve anything, but to be fair i don't think Harris would have done so either if she would have won instead of Trump)

 

[AuroraSaab]

This survey of voters suggests main issues were: inflation, illegal immigration, Biden legacy, rising national debt, cultural issues. Perhaps if Biden had gone sooner Harris might have established a clearer difference between her vision and Biden's government but as it was, according to this survey, she was weighed down heavily by the Biden administration's track record.

https://blueprint2024.com/polling/why-trump-reasons-11-8/

Turns out she wasn't 'unburdened by what has been' after all.

 

[Psamathe]

Funny how easy it is to make predictions after the event.

Important to distinguish between predictions before the event and analysing reasons for what happened after the event.

I've not heard anybody switch from "<xxx> is going to win" to saying "I always thought <yyy>" would win". But quite reasonable to be saying "<yyy> won because ..." and that is what most people seem to be doing.

eg analysis of exit polls has provided a lot of information in the public domain about what actually happened vs expectations ie which groups bothered to vote, which groups who voted supported which candidates.

In my younger days I confess I'd often end-up not voting in UK General elections despite having chosen who to vote for. If it's not massively important, eg been in Manchester in a meeting all day, get home to London 20:00, tired and it gets easy for trivia like cooking something to eat can end-up taking priority over heading out to a Polling Station. How much effort an individual makes can depend on many factors incl. how important different candidate stances are you that individual.

Ian

 

[Psamathe]

To me so many elections these days seem to highlight the shortcomings of our electoral/governance systems. You get one vote every few years and that single selection passes your view on a massive range of issues many of which you may disagree with, just not as strongly as the single policy you do agree with.

In effect each election you are forced to balance up a number of policies some good, some bad which then seems to give a single person a mandate to pursue their personal ideology and with no real accountability.

Maybe when politicians were more focused on governing for the people the electoral system worked but these days elections seem more about a single individual taking permission to pursue their personal ideology.

But then maybe some of the problem is what society has become - people voting for their personal self-interest. Politicians should be there to prevent governance becoming tyranny of the majority, to provide the safety net for those in need, etc.. UK should be a society but recent political classes treat it as an economy.

Ian

 

[BoldonLad]

To me so many elections these days seem to highlight the shortcomings of our electoral/governance systems. You get one vote every few years and that single selection passes your view on a massive range of issues many of which you may disagree with, just not as strongly as the single policy you do agree with.

In effect each election you are forced to balance up a number of policies some good, some bad which then seems to give a single person a mandate to pursue their personal ideology and with no real accountability.

Maybe when politicians were more focused on governing for the people the electoral system worked but these days elections seem more about a single individual taking permission to pursue their personal ideology.

But then maybe some of the problem is what society has become - people voting for their personal self-interest. Politicians should be there to prevent governance becoming tyranny of the majority, to provide the safety net for those in need, etc.. UK should be a society but recent political classes treat it as an economy.

Ian

When was this utopian period in our history?, I must have slept through it.

 

[Psamathe]

An interesting aspect to the the next few months is what Musk is up to. Has his at least $130m just allowed him to revel in his narcissism or is he after specific powers, contracts or further ego boosts.

Ian