War with Russia

[Psamathe]

If they were to suddenly end the war tomorrow wouldn't there be a massive black hole that couldn't be filled by any other means?

Or maybe not as bad as just losing the war economy as sanctions might start to be lifted, maybe some countries more able to buy oil and maybe not at such a "under the table" price. shadow fleet could maybe come out of the shadows at bit.

There will be long term damage but maybe some offsetting factors.

 

[briantrumpet]

Or maybe not as bad as just losing the war economy as sanctions might start to be lifted, maybe some countries more able to buy oil and maybe not at such a "under the table" price. shadow fleet could maybe come out of the shadows at bit.

There will be long term damage but maybe some offsetting factors.

Perhaps messages are being sent to 'influential people' (i.e. oligarchs) from Western agencies that the taps might be turned on after regime change...

 

[All uphill]

I'd like to think that, at some point, both sides could see that an extended ceasefire would be the least worst outcome. A bit like North and South Korea.

For that to work both sides need credible security guarantees from strong and stable third parties. That rules out the USA, NATO and the EU unfortunately.

If DJT had wanted his Nobel prize he would have told both sides to stay where they are, and the first one to try to take land would see their enemy rearmed.

 

[midlandsgrimpeur]

Or maybe not as bad as just losing the war economy as sanctions might start to be lifted, maybe some countries more able to buy oil and maybe not at such a "under the table" price. shadow fleet could maybe come out of the shadows at bit.

There will be long term damage but maybe some offsetting factors.

Surely any such 'offers' would have to be made with a tacit agreement that Putin had to go? It would be interesting to know if this was viewed as acceptable inside Russia.

 

[matticus]

Surely any such 'offers' would have to be made with a tacit agreement that Putin had to go? It would be interesting to know if this was viewed as acceptable inside Russia.

I would expect it to be totally acceptable, except to 1 man.

(Tying in with:

Perhaps messages are being sent to 'influential people' (i.e. oligarchs) from Western agencies that the taps might be turned on after regime change...

It's highly unlikely that UK (and other) agencies are not having those conversations.

 

[Psamathe]

...For that to work both sides need credible security guarantees from strong and stable third parties. That rules out the USA, NATO and the EU unfortunately. ...

It's the "security guarantees" that I can't see working. Ukraine already has the Budapest Memorandum and whilst obvious Russia hasn't compiled, neither has the US. So they already have guarantees that have proven totally ineffective with one signatory even switching to support the aggressor.

So what can they be provided that they can trust. eg if Trump said "US will send vast numbers of troops to fight off any aggressor guaranteed" could they trust Trump won't change his mind after 10 mins?

What country is going to put in their own nationals (military) to exchange fire (and deaths) with Russia when they decide on Phase III? Would the UK or would be be prevaricating and our leaders worried about domestic challenges to their leadership ...

Trump has clearly demonstrated to the world how he discards allies on no notice.

Even promises of vast munitions in the event of Putin restarting might just turn into "we don't have the stocks without depleting our own", or they just don't arrive as internal domestic squabbles are played out.

 

[midlandsgrimpeur]

I would expect it to be totally acceptable, except to 1 man.

(Tying in with:

It's highly unlikely that UK (and other) agencies are not having those conversations.

You would certainly hope so and that plans are being made.

 

[matticus]

If DJT had wanted his Nobel prize he would have told both sides to stay where they are, and the first one to try to take land would see their enemy rearmed.

I might be naive here, but it seems that a Nobel was there for the taking, if he would park his greed and just look for a peaceful solution with no profit margin for DJT.
A far easier conflict to sort out than anything in the Middle East; there are basically just two - nominally democratic - nations to deal with, and both want an end to the thing.

 

[BoldonLad]

It's the "security guarantees" that I can't see working. Ukraine already has the Budapest Memorandum and whilst obvious Russia hasn't compiled, neither has the US. So they already have guarantees that have proven totally ineffective with one signatory even switching to support the aggressor.

So what can they be provided that they can trust. eg if Trump said "US will send vast numbers of troops to fight off any aggressor guaranteed" could they trust Trump won't change his mind after 10 mins?

What country is going to put in their own nationals (military) to exchange fire (and deaths) with Russia when they decide on Phase III? Would the UK or would be be prevaricating and our leaders worried about domestic challenges to their leadership ...

Trump has clearly demonstrated to the world how he discards allies on no notice.

Even promises of vast munitions in the event of Putin restarting might just turn into "we don't have the stocks without depleting our own", or they just don't arrive as internal domestic squabbles are played out.

To me, this is the key issue, not that I want to see any other Country's citizens join in the carnage, but, unless Putin believes it to be a possibility, he will not concede. IMHO.

 

[Pblakeney]

A far easier conflict to sort out than anything in the Middle East; there are basically just two - nominally democratic - nations to deal with, and both want an end to the thing.

The problem that will not be resolved is that whatever is an acceptable end for one side is unacceptable to the other.
Peace can be attained today simply by Putin ordering his troops to go home but we all know that this isn't going to happen.

 

[matticus]

The problem that will not be resolved is that whatever is an acceptable end for one side is unacceptable to the other.

Christ, you really are a glass half-full guy today, aren't you?!?

 

[midlandsgrimpeur]

Christ, you really are a glass half-full guy today, aren't you?!?

PB will always tell you he is just a pragmatist 😂

 

[Pblakeney]

Christ, you really are a glass half-full guy today, aren't you?!?

What do you mean by "today"?

 

[Pblakeney]

PB will always tell you he is just a pragmatist 😂

We had a long debate about that over on BR and that was the conclusion. 😉
Prepare for the worst while hoping for the best. But always be prepared.

 

[matticus]

We had a long debate about that over on BR and that was the conclusion. 😉
Prepare for the worst while hoping for the best. But always be prepared.

OK, well if that's the case, I have learned Never put a Pragmatist in charge of Peace Negotiations ..
Look, they hate each-other, this is never gonna stop - let's all go down the pub and leave them to their mutual destruction.

;-)