War with Russia

[Pinno718]

I think, and hope, this is where Trump's plan falls on it's face. All this talk of increasing defence spending is assumed to be buying US arms. Hopefully the cash will be spent elsewhere creating a new circular economy sans US.

I'm not sure Trump had a plan. He probably regurgitated old mumblings about NATO contributions and saw an opportunity to make noises and gain votes. Else, it's this apparent Putin hold over him.

If it was simply the US contribution to NATO being proportionately higher than other NATO members, then you would have to prove that the US doesn't benefit from wider global influence and power through NATO. But this one dimensional view of matters seems to be a running thread through which Trump has simplified the rhetoric to get votes. And he was going to say anything to get votes, anything. He 'left cash on the table' after Trump 1.0, he was facing more charges and possibly imprisonment, he couldn't sit on the Epstein files if he were not POTUS.

It's hard to determine what his raison d'etre is: my gut feeling is that being president gives him some immunity coupled with protectionism whilst upholding the narcissist tendency and making money. Beyond that, i'm not sure there really is a plan. It's so mafioso.

 

[Pblakeney]

...being president gives him some immunity coupled with protectionism whilst upholding the narcissist tendency and making money. Beyond that, i'm not sure there really is a plan. It's so mafioso.

That is the plan. In it's entirety.

 

[First Aspect]

In the short term it will benefit the US, because Ukraine is reliant and their armed forces trained up to use US equipment. Longer term, it probably will result in a boom for EU based defense suppliers (possibly also UK, depending on how closely we stay aligned on security matters) because, duhhh, national security and the US is untrustworthy and unstable so can't also be relied upon for arms supplies.

Trump is a magpie and doesn't consider anything currently beyond reach of his tiny little bruised hands.

 

[Psamathe]

In the short term it will benefit the US, because Ukraine is reliant and their armed forces trained up to use US equipment. Longer term, it probably will result in a boom for EU based defense suppliers (possibly also UK, depending on how closely we stay aligned on security matters) because, duhhh, national security and the US is untrustworthy and unstable so can't also be relied upon for arms supplies.

It's an interesting aspect and in my experience does happen. A couple of years ago I was travelling independently round India (North west round to north east) and did end-up in some fairly militarised areas. India buys a fair amount of military gear from Russia but talking to locals it seems India has been "let down" by Russia failing to deliver orders because they were diverted to Russia's need in Ukraine (so fail to supply India). Thus the Indian Gov. had taken steps to use more home grown and other suppliers for new gear. That said they already have a lot of Russian stuff so need to maintain that and have to consider compatibility. So they can't make an immediate switch but can set in place policies to reduce some sources and grow other sources.

Ian

 

[Ian H]

I think, and hope, this is where Trump's plan falls on it's face. All this talk of increasing defence spending is assumed to be buying US arms. Hopefully the cash will be spent elsewhere creating a new circular economy sans US.

Israel has a substantial arms industry.

 

[C R]

Israel has a substantial arms industry.

Which itself is quite enmeshed with several European arms manufacturers. This may explain to some extent the reluctance of many European governments to call out Israel.

 

[Pblakeney]

Israel has a substantial arms industry.

Excellent idea! We buy all their arms off them and then they can't keep killing people.

 

[AndyRM]

Are they bear arms?

 

[Pblakeney]

Maybe, just maybe, Trump is getting serious this time.
"Trump moves nuclear submarines after ex-Russian president's comments"

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c93dgr2dd53o

 

[Psamathe]

Maybe, just maybe, Trump is getting serious this time.
"Trump moves nuclear submarines after ex-Russian president's comments"

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c93dgr2dd53o

Cynic in me suspects he'll have a "really beautiful phone call with Putin ...", declare he he's ended yet another war and where's his Nobel prize?

Ian

 

[Pblakeney]

Cynic in me suspects he'll have a "really beautiful phone call with Putin ...", declare he he's ended yet another war and where's his Nobel prize?

Ian

Probably not far off the mark.