War with Russia
- Thread starter Milzy
- Start date
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Ian H
Squire
The Economist doesn't think the Russian economy is in melt-down yet.
In 2023 and 2024 Russia’s economy boomed. Despite the implementation of Western sanctions after Russia invaded Ukraine, the country sold plenty of hydrocarbons to willing buyers, including China and India. The government massively boosted spending on welfare, infrastructure and the armed forces. In 2024 the economy grew by more than 4%, a fantastic performance by the standards of most big economies.
Figures published on Friday will show a different picture. They are expected to confirm growth of a mere 0.6% in the third quarter of 2025. Data on net exports will also look unimpressive. Why the turnaround? Russia’s president, Vladimir Putin, has taken his foot off the accelerator when it comes to spending. High interest rates, which the central bank implemented to ward off inflation, are biting. Western sanctions may be starting to hurt too. The Russian economy is not in crisis. But the party days are over.
In 2023 and 2024 Russia’s economy boomed. Despite the implementation of Western sanctions after Russia invaded Ukraine, the country sold plenty of hydrocarbons to willing buyers, including China and India. The government massively boosted spending on welfare, infrastructure and the armed forces. In 2024 the economy grew by more than 4%, a fantastic performance by the standards of most big economies.
Figures published on Friday will show a different picture. They are expected to confirm growth of a mere 0.6% in the third quarter of 2025. Data on net exports will also look unimpressive. Why the turnaround? Russia’s president, Vladimir Putin, has taken his foot off the accelerator when it comes to spending. High interest rates, which the central bank implemented to ward off inflation, are biting. Western sanctions may be starting to hurt too. The Russian economy is not in crisis. But the party days are over.
Dorset Boy
Active Member
The UK would be delighted with growth of 0.6% in a quarter!
Pinno718
Veteran
Joking aside, the UK isn't trying to fund a conflict.
Pinno718
Veteran
Still, the last paragraph doesn't paint a rosy outlook for Russia (and the Economist is just one opinion).
Psamathe
Guru
Maybe the problem becomes that these days "war" is a less defined process. Few drones occasionally shutting European Airports, increasing cyber attacks, increasing undersea cable cutting ... less of a black and white process and Europe always unable to meet like with like as Putin just "wasn't me" and Europe just grumbles a bit and listens to the US telling them how weak they are as they watch the economic impacts.
Pblakeney
Guru
Agreed. Putin is active in a proxy war while we are reluctant participants.
Bazzer
Über Member
Is this from the best forces and best tech you haven't yet told us about?
OP
OP
Milzy
Senior Member
My Nephew is a staff Sergeant & says our armed forces are not ready for any conflicts, they’ve had little spending on defence.
He said if the Argies sent some decent soldiers to the Falklands instead of kids, no way we’d be able to re capture them now.
The only thing to save us would be Russians to stand up & say we’re not fighting NATO. I think a lot would defect. Just like many British wouldn’t fight for this government.
Psamathe
Guru
As I see it it's a totally daft move on Putin's part. It doesn't help him if his intent (long term) is to invade. Probably makes any invasion harder as impacted countries start increasing defence budgets and move to higher alert states. And several of those states he's disrupting he'll never invade eg UK.
Seems to me it's a belief in Putin's mind of zero-sum game, if me can make western Europe "worse" he'll do "better" where obvious reality is we all do worse rather than were we to cooperate peacefully then we'd all do better.
Pblakeney
Guru
I don't think you "get" Putin.
I could be wrong but going on the evidence to date...
