War with Russia

[Pinno718]

British boom:

Ukraine Says UK Storm Shadow Missiles Hit Key Russian Refinery​

https://www.kyivpost.com/post/66955

 

[Psamathe]

British boom:

Ukraine Says UK Storm Shadow Missiles Hit Key Russian Refinery​

https://www.kyivpost.com/post/66955

My difficulty is that whilst I'd love to believe Ukraine is achieving, one aspect I am certain of is that just like Russia, Ukraine is also running a PR campaign to help support morale of Ukrainian population. So it becomes impossible to form a view I can have any confidence in. And Ukrainian press is maybe subject to skewed reporting to some extent I can't appreciate just as Russian press is undoubtedly not presenting an accurate balanced picture.

 

[Pinno718]

My difficulty is that whilst I'd love to believe Ukraine is achieving, one aspect I am certain of is that just like Russia, Ukraine is also running a PR campaign to help support morale of Ukrainian population. So it becomes impossible to form a view I can have any confidence in. And Ukrainian press is maybe subject to skewed reporting to some extent I can't appreciate just as Russian press is undoubtedly not presenting an accurate balanced picture.

Video footage of the Novoshakhtinsk oil refinery strike I tend not to post unsourced material.

https://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-...-with-british-missiles-officials-say-13487355

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...l-refinery-with-british-storm-shadow-missiles


View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ouiJfht8ci8

 

[Psamathe]

My difficulty is that whilst I'd love to believe Ukraine is achieving, one aspect I am certain of is that just like Russia, Ukraine is also running a PR campaign to help support morale of Ukrainian population. So it becomes impossible to form a view I can have any confidence in. And Ukrainian press is maybe subject to skewed reporting to some extent I can't appreciate just as Russian press is undoubtedly not presenting an accurate balanced picture.

Video footage of the Novoshakhtinsk oil refinery strike I tend not to post unsourced material.


View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ouiJfht8ci8

I wasn't trying to suggest they are reporting fictions nor untruths, but we don't get the balance as to how much damage Russia has inflicted on Ukraine eg if Russia is destroying 10 Ukrainian oil refineries for every 1 Russian one destroyed by Ukraine then news doesn't seem as good.

But it's much more complex as one has to balance impact of destroying a Russian eg warship vs a Ukrainian power station ... And maybe the economic cost is less important than the impact on the moral and perceptions of the population and even that is not a comparable balance as the Ukrainian population has a far far say in Ukraine's strategic decisions than the Russian population's influence on Putin's decision making.

 

[Pinno718]

I wasn't trying to suggest they are reporting fictions nor untruths, but we don't get the balance as to how much damage Russia has inflicted on Ukraine eg if Russia is destroying 10 Ukrainian oil refineries for every 1 Russian one destroyed by Ukraine then news doesn't seem as good.

But it's much more complex as one has to balance impact of destroying a Russian eg warship vs a Ukrainian power station ... And maybe the economic cost is less important than the impact on the moral and perceptions of the population and even that is not a comparable balance as the Ukrainian population has a far far say in Ukraine's strategic decisions than the Russian population's influence on Putin's decision making.

False balance ^?

Ukraine only had a few refineries which are all destroyed and so rely on imports which are pretty much guaranteed - supply lines from Europe over uncontested ground.
The strikes on Russian refineries are however, highly significant and the impact cannot be under estimated. Oil and Gas (LNG/LPG) is Russia's life blood. It is the life blood of it's war effort. Oil revenue mean arms supplies, money to produce drones, military equipment etc, money to pay the troops - they don't die for free either.
Ukraine is hitting military targets and one can say without any shadow of a doubt that Russian air defences are totally compromised: if you have read any of my (lengthy) posts, you will have seen Russian aircraft, radar systems, hangers, production facilities, rail and rail freight, power production being hit with relative ease. https://www.oil-refinery-bingo.com They just keep getting hit again and again.
There's something wrong when a super power:

• Is selling gold bullion on a scale not witnessed since 1998
• Is sending troops to war on horseback, motorbikes and 'golf carts'
• Has had to drag ageing tanks out of museums
• Failed to launch 2 ICBM (and had the arrogance to broadcast this cutting edge tech live)
• Is sacking high officials left right and centre and is grabbing Oligarch assets
• Has suffered 22 assassinations on generals (most recently, 10km's from the Kremlin)
• Where Oligarch's are sending their spoilt brats to Europe as it's safer
• When it cannot defend high end military facilities and aircraft from drone attacks
• Cannot shield the capitol
• Cannot recruit enough men to feed the meat grinder
• Often cannot even pay the injury/death compensation promised by contract nor funeral expenses
• Haven't secured much land at all. 3 days Putin said. It's now almost 4 years and they have barely taken 45km's. Kupyansk is a strategic and PR disaster. There are 500 troops stuck in Kupyansk - probably eating each other to stay alive in the face of zero supplies., zero communication, plunging temperatures. Putin went on state telly and declared Kupyansk as a huge victory and simultaneously, Zelensky was there filming a selfie.
• Is doing deals with China re,: land concessions as default because they are so desperate for support. China is not offering money and arms for free.
• Is facing a major financial crisis - Never mind the male demographic problem, nobody is even mentioning the rebuild costs when this conflict is over.

My take is that the land offensive has proved to be a failure. Russia's only weapon is the continued pummelling of civilian targets through drones. The escalation of drone attacks suggest that this is their only hope. But, all Empire's implode from within and the combined internal power struggles exacerbated by external pressures and financial woes mean that the drone barrage and international posturing is the last gasp before it goes tits up.
I hope that this point comes sooner rather than later because in the intervening period (6 months? 8 months, a year?), Ukrainians will suffer.
According to Times Radio, Jason Jay Smart (and many others) the point of financial collapse is at the most optimistic, 8 months and the most realistic probably iro 1 year to 18 months. It could well be that a peace deal is reached (because Russia has to) but it will be too late to stem the tide of a financial crisis.

So I will highlight and celebrate every single asset boom. Every single asset boom is on step closer to the end - to Putin's end. To the end of this horrible war.
Death to Putin, glory to Ukraine (and sod your pessimism).

There's a few charities that are helping children to keep going to school. There's a charity that supports relief for families of injured and dead soldiers and there's even a crowd funding for drones.
Donate and put money where your mouth is.
I will link them if anyone wants.

 

[Pinno718]

Former defence minister Yuri Sadovenko (56) announced dead officially to heart disease.
Rumour has it that the FSB took him out.
Either way, he was a significant figure and it is a significant loss more because he was the man who made sure of the paper trail: i.e corruption.