BRFR Cake Stop 'breaking news' miscellany

[briantrumpet]

The Belfast/Good Friday Agreement does not need a super majority nor did the Scottish referendum. Which bit of damage are you trying to solve?

This seems fairly balanced:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cdrynjz1glpo

But the working assumption of the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), external, the government's independent official forecaster, is still that Brexit in the long-term will reduce exports and imports of goods and services by 15% relative to otherwise. It has held this view since 2016, including under the previous Government.

And the OBR's other working assumption is that the fall in trade relative to otherwise will reduce the long-term size of the UK economy by around 4% relative to otherwise, equivalent to roughly £100bn in today's money.

 

[icowden]

I did say 'on here', meaning on the forum not in general. If it had been a narrow win for Remain, pro EU folk on here wouldn't have suggested it wasn't a definitive enough result to proceed, or thought a re run in a couple of years was fairer.

No, but I bet the pro-brexit people would have continued campaigning for another referendum. I believe a similar thing happened with Scottish independence. I don't recall, after the referendum, the SNP going "well, that's that then - we are all agreed".

 

[Dorset Boy]

This seems fairly balanced:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cdrynjz1glpo



View attachment 8097

In percentage terms it looks like the growth in services exports outweight the fall in goods exports.
Obviously without the actual values we can't tell if overall it has been beneficial, but the graph suggests it might have been .....

 

[Stevo 666]

Well, I'm assuming that the people who did the research (Cambridge Econometrics) based the figures upon something rather than just plucking them out of thin air to annoy Brexiteers.

Here's some more of the detail:

I think it revolves around lost business because companies don't want to come here when they can go to a European country and have many more benefits in easily reaching many more countries markets without tariffs and trade barriers. Just a guess.


Doesn't matter. Fraud is fraud. It should have been re-done.

More detailed assumptions about a hypothetical scenario on the economic stuff.

If it was fraud that impacted the result, surely some of the anti Brexit campaigners like Gina Miller would have made a solid case out of it. The fact that they didn't should tell you something.

 

[Stevo 666]

I did say 'on here', meaning on the forum not in general. If it had been a narrow win for Remain, pro EU folk on here wouldn't have suggested it wasn't a definitive enough result to proceed, or thought a re run in a couple of years was fairer.

Good point, I hadn't looked it that way before.

 

[AuroraSaab]

I do understand why people are sad and angry about Brexit, especially if they personally were very adversely affected. I don't get the argument that it was unfair or wrong to implement the decision. (Which isn't to say it's implementation wasn't a bit of a dog's dinner).

 

[PurplePenguin]

Struggling with the analogy between the Good Friday Agreement and Brexit, honestly.

And the Scottish referendum was, like Brexit, enormously decisive and damaging. The SNP were simultaneously arguing for a supermajority or 4 nations majority for Brexit, and against and such things in Scotland.

So what's your point again?

The Belfast/Good Friday Agreement contains (present tense) provisions for a border poll. This would not require a super majority.

 

[First Aspect]

The Belfast/Good Friday Agreement contains (present tense) provisions for a border poll. This would not require a super majority.

The poll would need to be held simultaneously in both countries and both countries would need to vote in favour. That's essentially the same as the 4 nations argument from the SNP for Brexit (which I didn't disagree with) - i.e. independently there would need to be majorities in favour in each of the nations of the UK.

 

[PurplePenguin]

I do understand why people are sad and angry about Brexit, especially if they personally were very adversely affected. I don't get the argument that it was unfair or wrong to implement the decision. (Which isn't to say it's implementation wasn't a bit of a dog's dinner).

I think this is a fairly mainstream opinion, but is drowned out by more vocal people with extreme views.

 

[First Aspect]

In percentage terms it looks like the growth in services exports outweight the fall in goods exports.
Obviously without the actual values we can't tell if overall it has been beneficial, but the graph suggests it might have been .....

It looks to me like goods and services took a big hit initially, and only services have got back to the trajectory they were on before Brexit.

So the net effect is about nothing for services and negative for goods.

Net overall effect can only be judged if you overlay all of the fantastic trade deals we done since Brexit. Since most of those were simply to keep us on the same terms as when we were in the EU, it's going to be negative overall isn't it? But at least it's OUR farkup, not some nasty European farkup.

 

[PurplePenguin]

This seems fairly balanced:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cdrynjz1glpo



View attachment 8097

This is GDP per capita according to the IMF. Can you see the 4% loss due to Brexit by 2030? The OBR made an assumption and have stuck by it which is odd, because I would expect it to change one way or the other based on actual outcomes.

 

[Mr Celine]

If it had gone the other way with the same narrow numbers nobody here would be calling for a re run or saying it wasn't a valid result.

Of course not. Everyone knew what 'remain' meant, ie the status quo.

The leave campaign refused to say what 'leave' would actually entail. Their complete lack of engagement was in stark contrast to the indyref campaign wherein 'yes' published a 670 page white paper and attended local meetings to debate this. Everyone who took part in that referendum knew exactly what they were voting for, unlike brexit.

 

[PurplePenguin]

I'm confused why no one seems to know the cause of the power outage in Spain and Portugal. It doesn't surprise me that they don't know why something broke, but to not know what broke seems really odd.

 

[matticus]

I'm confused why no one seems to know the cause of the power outage in Spain and Portugal. It doesn't surprise me that they don't know why something broke, but to not know what broke seems really odd.

Yeah, it is odd (and already discussed in another thread :P ); when more details emerge it will probably be near impossible for the non-subject-expert to take all in, and thus create enormous speculation by armchair experts on social media!

 

[PurplePenguin]

Yeah, it is odd (and already discussed in another thread :P ); when more details emerge it will probably be near impossible for the non-subject-expert to take all in, and thus create enormous speculation by armchair experts on social media!

Where is the other discussion? In the non political bit?