General Election 2024....

[Fab Foodie]

Whilst we're still under starters orders, there will undoubtedly be a GE later this year.

Rishi is on the ropes, his party divided into moderates, bastards, and swivel-eyed-loons. The economy is not playing to Rishi's tune, they're deeply out of touch with those suffering under the cost of living crisis, they've not levelled-up, they've not found a Brexit bonus, the NHS is not getting the Red Bus promise. They're going down not just to labour, but having their vote share split by Reform. What will Boris have to say over the coming months....

Labour are currently riding high in the polls and beasting the local bye-elections, however some recent decisions over Palestine, Antisemitism and his Green pledge (among many other U-turns) are denting this lead. Is being a bit better than the Tories enough?

Lib Dems are a busted flush - they might attract some voters from the Cons in some of the shires, but whether it's enough to gain any seats is a moot point, though some tactical voting may see some success. Ed Davey however is wetter than a blanket hauled out of a river in spate.

Greens - great policies, nice people, might hold on to Brighton

Reform - Like UKIP before them, the joker in the pack, the great disruptor. Most likely to take disaffected Brexit hard-right Tory support. We're yet to see whether Farage puts his eggs in the old basket or joins the NewCons, but in any scenario he'll be a player and Reform will play a notable role in the final outcome.

If ever there was a time for PR....




What say the armchair John Curtice wannabees of CC?

 

[BoldonLad]

Whilst we're still under starters orders, there will undoubtedly be a GE later this year.

Rishi is on the ropes, his party divided into moderates, bastards, and swivel-eyed-loons. The economy is not playing to Rishi's tune, they're deeply out of touch with those suffering under the cost of living crisis, they've not levelled-up, they've not found a Brexit bonus, the NHS is not getting the Red Bus promise. They're going down not just to labour, but having their vote share split by Reform. What will Boris have to say over the coming months....

Labour are currently riding high in the polls and beasting the local bye-elections, however some recent decisions over Palestine, Antisemitism and his Green pledge (among many other U-turns) are denting this lead. Is being a bit better than the Tories enough?

Lib Dems are a busted flush - they might attract some voters from the Cons in some of the shires, but whether it's enough to gain any seats is a moot point, though some tactical voting may see some success. Ed Davey however is wetter than a blanket hauled out of a river in spate.

Greens - great policies, nice people, might hold on to Brighton

Reform - Like UKIP before them, the joker in the pack, the great disruptor. Most likely to take disaffected Brexit hard-right Tory support. We're yet to see whether Farage puts his eggs in the old basket or joins the NewCons, but in any scenario he'll be a player and Reform will play a notable role in the final outcome.

If ever there was a time for PR....




What say the armchair John Curtice wannabees of CC?

I don’t think I would be betting against a Starmer win.

Reform concern me. I live in an area where hard right Tory support, indeed any Tory support is almost none existent, but, Reform appear to be thriving, attracting disaffected Labour voters. Personally, I fail to see how a Labour voter can switch to Reform, but, the evidence all around me says otherwise.

 

[Ian H]

In the (very) short term, a good outcome would be Reform taking votes from Tories, and voters being tactical, particularly in constituencies such as this rural one (newly LibDem, but revised boundaries next time make the outcome uncertain) where Labour won't get a look in.

A lot depends on whether there is a significant protest vote at the GE - it tends to be more a feature of by-elections, and whether enough die-hard Tories still feel unable to vote for the current sh!t-show government.

 

[pubrunner]

Whilst we're still under starters orders, there will undoubtedly be a GE later this year.

Rishi is on the ropes, his party divided into moderates, bastards, and swivel-eyed-loons. The economy is not playing to Rishi's tune, they're deeply out of touch with those suffering under the cost of living crisis, they've not levelled-up, they've not found a Brexit bonus, the NHS is not getting the Red Bus promise. They're going down not just to labour, but having their vote share split by Reform. What will Boris have to say over the coming months....

Labour are currently riding high in the polls and beasting the local bye-elections, however some recent decisions over Palestine, Antisemitism and his Green pledge (among many other U-turns) are denting this lead. Is being a bit better than the Tories enough?

Lib Dems are a busted flush - they might attract some voters from the Cons in some of the shires, but whether it's enough to gain any seats is a moot point, though some tactical voting may see some success. Ed Davey however is wetter than a blanket hauled out of a river in spate.

Greens - great policies, nice people, might hold on to Brighton

Reform - Like UKIP before them, the joker in the pack, the great disruptor. Most likely to take disaffected Brexit hard-right Tory support. We're yet to see whether Farage puts his eggs in the old basket or joins the NewCons, but in any scenario he'll be a player and Reform will play a notable role in the final outcome.

If ever there was a time for PR....

What say the armchair John Curtice wannabees of CC?

I think the above, is a reasonable assessment, though I'm not sure that Reform will make much of an impact at a GE.

Sunak has commented, that a vote "for anyone who isn't the Conservative candidate" will put Starmer in power at the next general election. This is literally all this idiot (and his party) have to try and convince you to vote for them.

Regardless of any handwaving, losing an 18000 majority should raise eyebrows at Conservative HQ. It really does show how brassed-off people are with this government. That said, Starmer should be under no illusions and realise that this is a protest vote, rather than a ringing endorsement of both him and his policies - whatever they may be.

Labour will almost certainly win the GE, which will be a refreshing change, after 13+ years of incompetence/criminality/decay. What benefit the people of the UK get out of this, I'm not sure.

 

[Fab Foodie]

I think many people will be voting for the least bad option on their ballot papers rather than the party which offers hope and vision. It's no surprise that voter turnout is low either. It's a pretty parlous state of affairs....

 

[bobzmyunkle]

the party which offers hope and vision

Are they standing?

 

[pubrunner]

. . . particularly in constituencies such as this rural one (newly LibDem, but revised boundaries next time make the outcome uncertain) where Labour won't get a look in.

Blimey, this ^^^ is exactly the situation where I live - do you live in North Shropshire too ?.

Prior to our current (& new) LibDem MP, we previously had Owen Paterson as MP and we all know what (deservedly) happened to him. I'll be voting LibDem, as will most of the folk I know in the area. We don't seem to have a Labour candidate; I'm not aware if there's a Reform candidate locally, but I can't see them attracting many votes in a GE.

Our LibDem MP (Helen Morgan) gets herself involved in local activities and seems able to respond appropriately to local concerns - she works hard and frankly, I can't fault her. Best of all, there's no hint of scandal or indication of her seeking to 'feather her own nest' and better her finances through lobbying.

It's just a shame, that Shropshire seems unable to rid itself of the local Conservative Councillors - who dominate local politics and 'look after themselves and each other' - it's a bit like a microcosm of the current government.

It'll be interesting to see how the next government (surely, Labour) performs - after all, they can't be worse than the current incumbents - can they?

 

[ebikeerwidnes]

I heard an interview with Sunak about the by-election result

something about how voters are seeing through Labour's whatever "because they have no plan"

I am not even sure he was talking about the same by-election - his comments we so far away from describing anything that had happened

mostly just a case of "say anything and lead up to saying They Have No Plan"
because saying "They Have No Plan" is all that matters - true or not it is all that matters

 

[Deleted member 121]

I heard an interview with Sunak about the by-election result

something about how voters are seeing through Labour's whatever "because they have no plan"

I am not even sure he was talking about the same by-election - his comments we so far away from describing anything that had happened

mostly just a case of "say anything and lead up to saying They Have No Plan"
because saying "They Have No Plan" is all that matters - true or not it is all that matters

I think we have all repeated lines of reassurance in front of a mirror when times are desperate...

 

[albion]

'The fall in the Conservative share of the vote – an enormous 37.6 percentage points – was the worst the party has ever suffered in a byelection.'
https://www.theguardian.com/politic...-blair-and-thatcher-wellingborough-byelection

Low turnout is the only danger. We got Brexit that way.

 

[farfromtheland]

Does Rishi Sunak really want to win? I reckon the neo-liberalist movers and shakers accept the time is ripe to swap roles and let the nominal opposition take some flak.

As a Londoner it strikes me that Sadik Khan's unpopular ULEZ mess (which I could have planned better with a crayon on a bus ticket) is responsible for the Labour party dropping its green commitments. Doesn't bode well.

 

[multitool]

Even the NY Times has understood the nature of the last 14 years better than the 20% of the electorate who still intend to vote Tory

 

[Deleted member 121]

I can forgive outsiders for thinking that the Tories love Britain. But i do not forgive those that live here and continue to witness the destruction. The useful idiots that vote traditionally because their parents did and/or because they were bribed by being allowed to buy their council houses for a song, whilst slowly and deliberately causing housing decrepitude which has come to fruition and only benefits those with a housing portfolio. This whilst being told by those people that if we all just worked a bit harder we could have a portfolio too, which is simply impossible and designed specifically to make the general population feel that they deserve their meagre pickings as they couldn't possibly have worked hard enough and of course not forgetting, the invasion of immigrants that are taking your jobs and your hospital appointments.... To top it all off, the pension age keeps rising and mobility benefits become more and more difficult to obtain even after working potentially 50+ years. Oh aye, if that's loving thy country then no wonder everyone looks to the future with a bleak outlook...

 

[multitool]

The Tory party only exists to represent the interests of the wealthy. And the wealthy own the media and control its output. From where do people derive their knowledge of politics and how do they form their opinions?

Why, the media, of course.

 

[All uphill]

My prediction is that Reform will pull the Tories further right leaving Labour the centre ground.

I also predict a very low GE turnout. Boris and pals very successfully reduced confidence in our politicians and institutions.

BTW To date I have a 100% failure rate with my political predictions.

I'd love to see the Lib Dems take on the role of a leftist progressive party, but that's not what I expect.