It's a rout - is the old order on the way out?

[monkers]

Half of the day's election results are in. It must be depressing reading for Tory and Labour diehards.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2025/england/results

 

[CXRAndy]

I doubt it will stop at these local elections

 

[Beebo]

Half of the day's election results are in. It must be depressing reading for Tory and Labour diehards.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2025/england/results

We already have a thread on this. it’s a mid term vote. When does the incumbent ever do well?

But it’s depressing for me, as a self confessed centrist dad, who has voted both ways in the past. I don’t want to see a party like Reform gain traction. They have nothing positive to offer the UK public.

 

[matticus]

https://ncap.cyclechat.net/threads/spin-time.726/page-5

 

[monkers]

https://ncap.cyclechat.net/threads/spin-time.726/page-5

Thank you. I am obliged.

 

[Xipe Totec]

On the broader topic of whether this is a sea-change in UK politics, all the time there's an archaic, unrepresentative & clearly undemocratic voting system in place, then no. Reform would still likely need a pact with the Tories to win a GE.

But that's probably a whole different topic.

 

[CXRAndy]

Why, once a base has been established, reform will be a force that possibly overtake both main parties

 

[Xipe Totec]

Why, once a base has been established, reform will be a force that possibly overtake both main parties

Traditional Tory voters will still vote Tory (and there are a lot of them), traditional Labour voters will vote for anyone that's not Reform or Tories (or, more likely, stay at home) and disaffected 2024 NotTheTories voters who have seen through Starmer will revert to their usual patterns.

Reform will do well & gain seats but a big proportion of the demographic they want will still vote Tory, splitting the vote.

I said after the last GE they'd ally with the Tories & I'd still put a tenner on it.

 

[Stevo 666]

Traditional Tory voters will still vote Tory (and there are a lot of them), traditional Labour voters will vote for anyone that's not Reform or Tories (or, more likely, stay at home) and disaffected 2024 NotTheTories voters who have seen through Starmer will revert to their usual patterns.

Reform will do well & gain seats but a big proportion of the demographic they want will still vote Tory, splitting the vote.

I said after the last GE they'd ally with the Tories & I'd still put a tenner on it.

That may well happen, unless the surge in support for Reform continues. These things are hard to predict, especially when the next GE is probably over 4 years away (unless something unexpectedly good happens).