It's a rout - is the old order on the way out?

[monkers]

Half of the day's election results are in. It must be depressing reading for Tory and Labour diehards.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2025/england/results

 

[CXRAndy]

I doubt it will stop at these local elections

 

[Beebo]

Half of the day's election results are in. It must be depressing reading for Tory and Labour diehards.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2025/england/results

We already have a thread on this. it’s a mid term vote. When does the incumbent ever do well?

But it’s depressing for me, as a self confessed centrist dad, who has voted both ways in the past. I don’t want to see a party like Reform gain traction. They have nothing positive to offer the UK public.

 

[matticus]

https://ncap.cyclechat.net/threads/spin-time.726/page-5

 

[monkers]

https://ncap.cyclechat.net/threads/spin-time.726/page-5

Thank you. I am obliged.

 

[Xipe Totec]

On the broader topic of whether this is a sea-change in UK politics, all the time there's an archaic, unrepresentative & clearly undemocratic voting system in place, then no. Reform would still likely need a pact with the Tories to win a GE.

But that's probably a whole different topic.

 

[CXRAndy]

Why, once a base has been established, reform will be a force that possibly overtake both main parties

 

[Xipe Totec]

Why, once a base has been established, reform will be a force that possibly overtake both main parties

Traditional Tory voters will still vote Tory (and there are a lot of them), traditional Labour voters will vote for anyone that's not Reform or Tories (or, more likely, stay at home) and disaffected 2024 NotTheTories voters who have seen through Starmer will revert to their usual patterns.

Reform will do well & gain seats but a big proportion of the demographic they want will still vote Tory, splitting the vote.

I said after the last GE they'd ally with the Tories & I'd still put a tenner on it.

 

[Stevo 666]

Traditional Tory voters will still vote Tory (and there are a lot of them), traditional Labour voters will vote for anyone that's not Reform or Tories (or, more likely, stay at home) and disaffected 2024 NotTheTories voters who have seen through Starmer will revert to their usual patterns.

Reform will do well & gain seats but a big proportion of the demographic they want will still vote Tory, splitting the vote.

I said after the last GE they'd ally with the Tories & I'd still put a tenner on it.

That may well happen, unless the surge in support for Reform continues. These things are hard to predict, especially when the next GE is probably over 4 years away (unless something unexpectedly good happens).

 

[Xipe Totec]

That may well happen, unless the surge in support for Reform continues. These things are hard to predict, especially when the next GE is probably over 4 years away (unless something unexpectedly good happens).

Agreed - I suspect neither the Tories nor Labour will go into a GE with the leaders they presently have, in fact doing so would be probably Farage's best hope for a majority!

Labour will eventually have to realise that the demographic they're so frantic to attract would sooner emasculate themselves with a rusty spud peeler than vote Labour, under any circumstances. Interesting times.

 

[classic33]

Twenty years ago similar remarks were being made about the BNP overtaking both main parties, based on local election results.
Ten years later they were back into the also ran position, fading into obscurity(election wise). That's all that's happening here. People are reacting to promises made. And those with the least to lose get to make the greatest promises. Then they get elected, people realise they never did have any intention of keeping those grand sounding promises.

 

[C R]

Twenty years ago similar remarks were being made about the BNP overtaking both main parties, based on local election results.
Ten years later they were back into the also ran position, fading into obscurity(election wise). That's all that's happening here. People are reacting to promises made. And those with the least to lose get to make the greatest promises. Then they get elected, people realise they never did have any intention of keeping those grand sounding promises.

It is true that what did it for the BNP was their being seen to be useless when it came to deliver.

However, Nick Griffin was no Nigel Farage, and at the time the BNP didn't have the money and media support that Reform have.

The biggest problem is that in places like Worcestershire the tories were already running a piss poor excuse of council, so reform can't do much worse that people would notice. And the grievance DEI bollocks will continue to carry them forward. I don't have much hope.

 

[classic33]

It is true that what did it for the BNP was their being seen to be useless when it came to deliver.

However, Nick Griffin was no Nigel Farage, and at the time the BNP didn't have the money and media support that Reform have.

The biggest problem is that in places like Worcestershire the tories were already running a piss poor excuse of council, so reform can't do much worse that people would notice. And the grievance DEI bollocks will continue to carry them forward. I don't have much hope.

I've seen it from the main parties as well. Only they've been able to move their candidates to other wards when they've realised that they've been "found out" as useless. They had that luxury, the BNP couldn't afford to do that.

Reform UK's first councillor refused to stand down, after leaving the Labour and Co-Operative party. He's been on a major charm offensive since moving to Reform. And not doing very well so far. Having managed to alienate himself from the area within the ward that voted him in the last two times.

 

[cookiemonster]

 

[CXRAndy]

Lucy Powell has sunk this party for pretty much confirming they are a party of supporting rapists

This is Lucy Powell