Makerfield by election

[Dorset Boy]

Meanwhile in Aberdeen, the Conservatives win from the SNP, the first time they have won a by-election from another party in Scotland since 1967!

 

[C R]

I'd assume most of the evaporated Tory vote went to Reform and the rest were anyone but Reform votes so tactical on both sides maybe

A naïve reading of the results bears that comment. LD an Green combined down 10%, labour up 10%. Conservatives down 9%, reform and restore up 10%.

 

[midlandsgrimpeur]

Hopefully this is the high water mark for reform. They surely can’t win a FPTP general election.
Tactical voting shows people will vote for anyone but reform. As the cons, libs and greens are no where.

You would hope someone in the Labour hierarchy now realises the only way to beat Reform is to coalesce around a progressive anti-Reform vote, not chase Reform voters!

 

[briantrumpet]

You would hope someone in the Labour hierarchy now realises the only way to beat Reform is to coalesce around a progressive anti-Reform vote, not chase Reform voters!

But that's not in the immutable contract between Starmer and McSweeney.

 

[Bromptonaut]

Tories winning in Aberdeen feels surprising

Aberdeen is the epicentre of the UK's offshore oil/gas industry and is feeling the pinch as that industry contracts.

The Tories threw the kitchen sink at it on that basis.

Not sure it'll help them advance elsewhere.

 

[Ian H]

I have the urge to post this here as well. Reasons to be cheerful cynical, part ten.

 

[Pinno718]

F*ck you Fagash.

 

[Psamathe]

Tice’s excuse is that Burnham is an anti-Starmer candidate so he’s basically saying people prefer Labour to Reform, they just dislike Starmer. Oh, and it has always been Labour so he seems to be giving up on trying to win safe seats from others despite that being essential if they want to win a GE.

You would hope someone in the Labour hierarchy now realises the only way to beat Reform is to coalesce around a progressive anti-Reform vote, not chase Reform voters!

I suspect it's not possible to interpret much about Labour vs Reform from this by-election.

Basically Burnham was a popular local proven successful candidate with a track record who would very likely get rid of Starmer.

Just like Starmer didn't win the last General Election but rather the Conservatives lost badly handing Starmer a majority, so this time Starmer's unpopularity and perceived record as PM ensured Burhnam got a massive majority.

I'm guessing but maybe many who moved to Reform because they wanted "change", they thought things were not working and something different needed. For that group voting to increase Reform's presence in Westminster from 8 to 9 adding 1st time inexperienced MP would change nothing. But voting for Burnham would likely get Starmer out and thus new PM which could maybe make a difference the "change" that people keep repeating.

 

[briantrumpet]

Bluesky very upbeat about the result, but they mostly ignore the ability of Starmer and McSweeney to completely misread the reasons for the result and to screw everything up through pig-headed obstinacy.

 

[Dorset Boy]

Sir John Curtice would broadly agree.
Burnham obviously kept the die hard Labour vote.
He also won the disaffected Labour voters who aren't happy with Starmer and would otherwise have voted for another party if it wasn't Burnham standing and offering the leadership challenge.
He also won the anyone but Reform vote.

 

[bobzmyunkle]

Stand easy NACA economic gurus, looks like MMT isn't on the cards.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2026/jun/18/andy-burnham-top-economists-possible-leadership-run