Makerfield by election

[secretsqirrel]

I suspect it's not possible to interpret much about Labour vs Reform from this by-election.

Basically Burnham was a popular local proven successful candidate with a track record who would very likely get rid of Starmer.

Just like Starmer didn't win the last General Election but rather the Conservatives lost badly handing Starmer a majority, so this time Starmer's unpopularity and perceived record as PM ensured Burhnam got a massive majority.

I'm guessing but maybe many who moved to Reform because they wanted "change", they thought things were not working and something different needed. For that group voting to increase Reform's presence in Westminster from 8 to 9 adding 1st time inexperienced MP would change nothing. But voting for Burnham would likely get Starmer out and thus new PM which could maybe make a difference the "change" that people keep repeating.

Do think they did that kind of detailed analysis?🧐

 

[C R]

I have confidence that Burnham as PM would be a bit better in presenting whatever policies he decides to run with.

I'm not even as confident as that.

 

[midlandsgrimpeur]

I suspect it's not possible to interpret much about Labour vs Reform from this by-election.

Basically Burnham was a popular local proven successful candidate with a track record who would very likely get rid of Starmer.

Just like Starmer didn't win the last General Election but rather the Conservatives lost badly handing Starmer a majority, so this time Starmer's unpopularity and perceived record as PM ensured Burhnam got a massive majority.

I'm guessing but maybe many who moved to Reform because they wanted "change", they thought things were not working and something different needed. For that group voting to increase Reform's presence in Westminster from 8 to 9 adding 1st time inexperienced MP would change nothing. But voting for Burnham would likely get Starmer out and thus new PM which could maybe make a difference the "change" that people keep repeating.

I think there is a lot that's valid here and the Burnham factor was undoubtedly a real pull. I do think that it highlights a possible broader trend though, if you give liberals/leftists something to vote for then they will vote for it. Burnham has and Starmer hasn't.

I still believe the majority of the country can be quite closely grouped from centre right small 'c' conservatives to liberal left. I don't believe that a majority are politically and ideologically aligned with Reform. At GE level, if you give moderates something to back, I do think there are far more of us than those at either end of a political extreme.

 

[briantrumpet]

 

[Psamathe]

One aspect to the campaigning I found revealing and reflected badly on the capabilities of Labour MPs is their failure to interpret doorstep comments. I can be confident they/some failed to understand/listen/absorb/etc. because they all left with totally opposing "I was repeatedly told ..." stories. eg.Starmer supporters interviewed were saying "I campaigned in the constituency and everybody was telling me we need to just get on with our [Starmer's] agenda" whereas the pro-Burnham/change when interviewed were "Everybody was saying we need change and that the current leadership just isn't working ...".

Me thinks they were either making up fiction to support their personal views or not listening/hearing what they wanted to hear (eg voter says "I don't like Starmer" and they only hear "I <pause> like Starmer").

 

[briantrumpet]

One aspect to the campaigning I found revealing and reflected badly on the capabilities of Labour MPs is their failure to interpret doorstep comments. I can be confident they/some failed to understand/listen/absorb/etc. because they all left with totally opposing "I was repeatedly told ..." stories. eg.Starmer supporters interviewed were saying "I campaigned in the constituency and everybody was telling me we need to just get on with our [Starmer's] agenda" whereas the pro-Burnham/change when interviewed were "Everybody was saying we need change and that the current leadership just isn't working ...".

Me thinks they were either making up fiction to support their personal views or not listening/hearing what they wanted to hear (eg voter says "I don't like Starmer" and they only hear "I <pause> like Starmer").

Both sides will make stuff up, but the twaddle from Starmer loyalists I see on Bluesky is quite something, as if he's been polling positively since the previous by-election.

 

[Pblakeney]

Tice’s excuse is that Burnham is an anti-Starmer candidate so he’s basically saying people prefer Labour to Reform, they just dislike Starmer. Oh, and it has always been Labour so he seems to be giving up on trying to win safe seats from others despite that being essential if they want to win a GE.

Tories winning in Aberdeen feels surprising

With a higher than average population of farmers, land owners, and the oil industry it doesn’t come as a complete surprise.
The Borders often go against the grain of the central belt too.

 

[Bromptonaut]

What we're seeing is that Refuk can be the largest party nationally by a few points but a bit of well informed voting they can't actually get seats to match.

 

[briantrumpet]

What we're seeing is that Refuk can be the largest party nationally by a few points but a bit of well informed voting they can't actually get seats to match.

One of the Bluesky views is that it shows the fragility of Farage's popularity, and hope that maybe too many people really don't like his racism and rabble rousing.

There's also this:

 

[Ian H]

What we're seeing is that Refuk can be the largest party nationally by a few points but a bit of well informed voting they can't actually get seats to match.

Weirdly enough, this is the result of first-past-the-post combined with tactical voting.

 

[First Aspect]

Weirdly enough, this is the result of first-past-the-post combined with tactical voting.

Another way to put it is that in a multi party system, being most hated matters more than being most popular.

 

[briantrumpet]

Weirdly enough, this is the result of first-past-the-post combined with tactical voting.

I think the thing with Burnham in this by-election was that it wasn't just people voting *against* a party they wanted to reject (as was the case with the GE in 2024), but — rightly or wrongly — a lot of people cast a positive vote for Burnham too. But it does suggest (thankfully) that Farage will have a mountain to climb convert his ~25% into anything other than a rejection on a constituency-by-constituency basis, if decent people reject his racist populism and vote accordingly to deny him. Even if I have severe doubt about Burnham, the (probably) good news is the he's not Starmer.

 

[C R]

Even if I have severe doubt about Burnham, the (probably) good news is the he's not Starmer.

We were told that the good news was that Starmer was not Corbyn, or Johnson. How did that work out? Burnham started as a blairite after all.

 

[Ian H]

He's a

I think the thing with Burnham in this by-election was that it wasn't just people voting *against* a party they wanted to reject (as was the case with the GE in 2024), but — rightly or wrongly — a lot of people cast a positive vote for Burnham too. But it does suggest (thankfully) that Farage will have a mountain to climb convert his ~25% into anything other than a rejection on a constituency-by-constituency basis, if decent people reject his racist populism and vote accordingly to deny him. Even if I have severe doubt about Burnham, the (probably) good news is the he's not Starmer.

He's a charismatic chancer, a bit like Johnson but with more of a work ethic. Allegedly a bit left, but also chameleon-like.

 

[Psamathe]

...but — rightly or wrongly — a lot of people cast a positive vote for Burnham too. But it does suggest (thankfully) that Farage will have a mountain to climb convert his ~25% into anything other than a rejection on a constituency-by-constituency basis, if decent people reject his racist populism and vote accordingly to deny him ...

But what would the outcome have been had the Labour candidate been a local plumber with no background in politics and a questionable Social Media history etc.

Labour don't have enough "Andy Burnhams" to put one in each constituency.