Reform, and the death of the Tory Party

[briantrumpet]

Is it merely a matter of time before the Tory Party goes the way of the Norwegian Blue? I don't suppose it'll happen before the next election, but I can't see they've got a resuscitation strategy. Badenoch is hopeless at the job, no-one wants to take it on, and Farage is better at the populist messaging than anyone in the Tory Party: I suspect that the remaining Tories are either not really populists, or are thinking about jumping the sinking ship.

 

[Xipe Totec]

It's an interesting dilemma for them, squeezed between Farage monopolising their basest, most feral instincts on one side, and what is the current closest analogue of old school Tory One Nationism actually in government.

However I'm still inclined to think that a (still distant) general election won't be the overwhelming Reform landslide many expect, or indeed wish for. Most people aren't particularly politically engaged, and the idea that for those, politics is "what's on in the background when they're making a cup of tea" implies that there may not be any great public hunger for more 'change', or wish to subvert the status quo.

What the Tories might do (beyond the necessity of defenestrating Mad Badenoch) will be interesting to see, but I think Reform's best chance of making significant gains will likely be a similar level of apathy that led to the government we currently have, where 'traditional' Tory voters clearly just stayed in bed.

And nearer the event, if they're still both targeting the same Carling-swilling, binburning demographic, some sort of Tory/Reform alliance wouldn't surprise me in the slightest.

 

[First Aspect]

I watched a YouTube video by Mallen Baker and his thesis is that Reform UK will go the same way as other Farage publicity vehicles, because it is run as a cult of personality, and that Faeage has never actually been able to run anything else.

Not sure how optimistic that is, given what's happening in the US, but it is certainly true that Farage has thrown his toys out of the pram several times before and that he doesn't play well with others. The higher the stakes get, the more ambitious people will collect and the less likely it is that they will all do whatever he says.

So perhaps the smart move is not to placate Reform voters out of a fear of Reform. 5 years is a long time...

 

[First Aspect]

Incidentally, Tice said this week that the £90Bn tax cut policy wasn't a policy as such, just an aspiration and that they'd have to make some progress on their promised £150Bn spending cuts before cutting taxes.

So they did have a policy. But now they don't.

 

[KingstonGraham]

I opined in the other place that Badenoch would win the leadership but not be in charge at the election.

Currently I can't see who they would replace her with except Jenrick, which would be completely insane.

The only logical step is the return of Johnson to lead them into the next election. The man is completely ill suited to the role of PM but he is still their best hope.

 

[briantrumpet]

I opined in the other place that Badenoch would win the leadership but not be in charge at the election.

Currently I can't see who they would replace her with except Jenrick, which would be completely insane.

The only logical step is the return of Johnson to lead them into the next election. The man is completely ill suited to the role of PM but he is still their best hope.

If their only hope is an incompetent lying narcissist, then it deserves to die. I wish it weren't so, as Labour needs a credible opposition.

 

[BoldonLad]

I watched a YouTube video by Mallen Baker and his thesis is that Reform UK will go the same way as other Farage publicity vehicles, because it is run as a cult of personality, and that Faeage has never actually been able to run anything else.

Not sure how optimistic that is, given what's happening in the US, but it is certainly true that Farage has thrown his toys out of the pram several times before and that he doesn't play well with others. The higher the stakes get, the more ambitious people will collect and the less likely it is that they will all do whatever he says.

So perhaps the smart move is not to placate Reform voters out of a fear of Reform. 5 years is a long time...

Plus, people may vote Reform as a protest, but, will they actually put them in Power? There is a difference between a by-election and/or a Local Government Election and a General Election.

Given our FPTP system, is it even likely Reform will get a sizeable number of seats, never mind a working majority? The Lib-Dems have struggled with this for years.

In the interim, Reform are making Labour look foolish, and the Conservatives irrelevant, simply because they don't seem to have the wit to face them (Reform) down.

only my humble opinion of course. 🙂

 

[First Aspect]

Plus, people may vote Reform as a protest, but, will they actually put them in Power? There is a difference between a by-election and/or a Local Government Election and a General Election.

Given our FPTP system, is it even likely Reform will get a sizeable number of seats, never mind a working majority? The Lib-Dems have struggled with this for years.

In the interim, Reform are making Labour look foolish, and the Conservatives irrelevant, simply because they don't seem to have the wit to face them (Reform) down.

only my humble opinion of course. 🙂

They've put them in power at a local level already. Local politics has a disproportionate impact on day to day life. So if some of these reform lead councils or reform mayors (sorry, not sure how many of them there are) go through with cuts as well thought through as DOGE and people start hearing about redundancies and inevitable union action in response, hopefully it will put the brakes on a bit for them.

 

[midlandsgrimpeur]

Plus, people may vote Reform as a protest, but, will they actually put them in Power? There is a difference between a by-election and/or a Local Government Election and a General Election.

Given our FPTP system, is it even likely Reform will get a sizeable number of seats, never mind a working majority? The Lib-Dems have struggled with this for years.

In the interim, Reform are making Labour look foolish, and the Conservatives irrelevant, simply because they don't seem to have the wit to face them (Reform) down.

only my humble opinion of course. 🙂

I am also of the opinion that people are highly unlikely to ever hand Reform power at a national level. Never say never and all that, but unlikely as I think most people who like Farage know deep down he talks a good game but has no real interest in governing.

Reform's biggest problem perhaps, is what state they will actually be in next GE, or whether they exist at all. As highlighted, it is essentially a Farage vanity project, and likely subject to collapse at any moment!

 

[briantrumpet]

I am also of the opinion that people are highly unlikely to ever hand Reform power at a national level. Never say never and all that, but unlikely as I think most people who like Farage know deep down he talks a good game but has no real interest in governing.

Reform's biggest problem perhaps, is what state they will actually be in next GE, or whether they exist at all. As highlighted, it is essentially a Farage vanity project, and likely subject to collapse at any moment!

It's worth remembering that most thought 'people would never vote to leave the EU', but look where we are. The electorate is a funny beast, especially when populist parties are resurgent, telling them whatever they want to hear.

 

[Psamathe]

So if some of these reform lead councils or reform mayors (sorry, not sure how many of them there are) go through with cuts as well thought through as DOGE and people start hearing about redundancies and inevitable union action in response, hopefully it will put the brakes on a bit for them.

What I find difficult to predict is how successful Reform's failures in Councils will be deflected. They'll be blaming Westminster for blocking them, being given adequate powers or being overridden, funding cuts, etc. and complete fiction seems standard campaigning with electorate believing whatever lies suit their prejudice.

Question becomes how many less committed Reform voters think and how many readily accept such twaddle.

Or maybe Farage will get bored in Westminster and decide US is better for his wealth.

Ian

 

[midlandsgrimpeur]

It's worth remembering that most thought 'people would never vote to leave the EU', but look where we are. The electorate is a funny beast, especially when populist parties are resurgent, telling them whatever they want to hear.

True, and I would never rule it out. I think leaving the EU has given a lot of people a dose of reality though on the gap between promises and reality (even if they pretend it hasn't). There are absolutely still a lot of people that would vote for Reform but I don't think they will do much in the next four years
to add hugely to their base. It will also be interesting to see what they do at a Local Authority level and what impact this has.

 

[craigwend]

 

[briantrumpet]

True, and I would never rule it out. I think leaving the EU has given a lot of people a dose of reality though on the gap between promises and reality (even if they pretend it hasn't). There are absolutely still a lot of people that would vote for Reform but I don't think they will do much in the next four years
to add hugely to their base. It will also be interesting to see what they do at a Local Authority level and what impact this has.

I'd said the same about Trump in 2024, but a rabidly anti-Trump friend who also knows America well said he thought he'd win. The only recent time my optimism was justified was with Biden in 2020. (That's ignoring the GE of 2024 when the Tories had soiled their pants and dropped their aspirations down the toilet as it flushed.) Populism generally knows how to manipulate those it needs to.

 

[midlandsgrimpeur]

I'd said the same about Trump in 2024, but a rabidly anti-Trump friend who also knows America well said he thought he'd win. The only recent time my optimism was justified was with Biden in 2020. (That's ignoring the GE of 2024 when the Tories had soiled their pants and dropped their aspirations down the toilet as it flushed.) Populism generally knows how to manipulate those it needs to.

I was the same as you on Trump which is why I will always be careful about any future predictions. One thing I am certain about is a Farage led govt. would see me joining you in France!