I'm increasingly thinking that the Conservative Party is going to disappear within the next twelve months. I think the only two secnarios are a formal merger with Reform, or they just wither into irrelevance.
Labour really has a choice: find its soul and present a positive argument as a counterpoint to Reform populism, or carry on recruiting for Reform by trying to ape its policies. If it does the latter, it's going to lose the next election.
Lib Dems - well, they ought to be filling the void for people like me, but I'm just not sure that they've got enough organisation or heft to step up to the task.
Bleak.
If Labour stay the on the same course same it looks like they'll lose the next election, judging by yesterday's results. Keep on doubling down, Keir....
In the end I reckon there will be two big issues that will swing it: the economy and immigration. If they don't deliver growth then that in itself will count against them and also means less tax revenue to do what they want to do. Unfortunately for them, putting lefties in charge of encouraging increased economic growth is a bit like putting cats in charge of increasing the bird and mouse population 🙂
And we can already see on immigration they are not doing anything effective to tackle the problem. There's probably some tension between keeping the traditional Labour voters and the 'progressives' happy at the same time on this as well, so it looks like they're just going through the motions. The issue has already fuelled a lot of the rise of Reform.
Also potentially the net zero issue could become bigger if Millipede is allowed to continue his crusade unchecked.