Starmer's vision quest

[Milzy]

His suit is awful but he’s got a look in eyes like he knows what the F he’s doing.

 

[Deleted member 49]

On the 20th anniversary of the shameful Iraq war this is the Shadow Defence Secretary...anybody care to tell me what Blairs role is in Labour today ?

View: https://twitter.com/JohnHealey_MP/status/1637764379167817734?t=7GnTGR3YSLfkQbA-6DMg1A&s=19

 

[multitool]

On the 20th anniversary of the shameful Iraq war this is the Shadow Defence Secretary...anybody care to tell me what Blairs role is in Labour today ?

View: https://twitter.com/JohnHealey_MP/status/1637764379167817734?t=7GnTGR3YSLfkQbA-6DMg1A&s=19

Problem with the Iraq war is that it was a monumental mistake, both in rationale and execution. Definitely many orders higher than Suez, and possibly more of a mistake than US war in Vietnam.

I was against it at the time, as were many, but I do think the judgement looks even worse with hindsight, which is why its important to bear in mind the thinking at the time. The fear was Saddam's regime supplying terrorist groups like Al Qaida, which given it was just after 9/11 seems a not entirely unreasonable fear.

Turns out Iraq no longer had WMD, and the intelligence failures were both typical (we saw them again in Afghanistan) and ultimately devastating. Blair's legacy? Depends on whether you think he really believed the intelligence or he had some other motive. If you think he believed the intelligence then you have to ask the counter-factual question about what you would do if there were WMDs and they had found their way into the hands of terror cells in the West. The intent was surely there. Anybody remember the Spanish bomb attacks? It's easy to criticise if you aren't in the position of being a world leader having to make decisions.

Ultimately, post-war decisions on deBathification led to ISIS and the immolation of large tracts of the Middle East.

If you think he didn't believe the intelligence or was a party to its fabrication then your feelings that he is a war criminal are entirely justified.

I don't know if he sleeps well at night. I know I wouldn't, either way.

 

[Deleted member 49]

Problem with the Iraq war is that it was a monumental mistake, both in rationale and execution. Definitely many orders higher than Suez, and possibly more of a mistake than US war in Vietnam.

I was against it at the time, as were many, but I do think the judgement looks even worse with hindsight, which is why its important to bear in mind the thinking at the time. The fear was Saddam's regime supplying terrorist groups like Al Qaida, which given it was just after 9/11 seems a not entirely unreasonable fear.

Turns out Iraq no longer had WMD, and the intelligence failures were both typical (we saw them again in Afghanistan) and ultimately devastating. Blair's legacy? Depends on whether you think he really believed the intelligence or he had some other motive. If you think he believed the intelligence then you have to ask the counter-factual question about what you would do if there were WMDs and they had found their way into the hands of terror cells in the West. The intent was surely there. Anybody remember the Spanish bomb attacks? It's easy to criticise if you aren't in the position of being a world leader having to make decisions.

Ultimately, post-war decisions on deBathification led to ISIS and the immolation of large tracts of the Middle East.

If you think he didn't believe the intelligence or was a party to its fabrication then your feelings that he is a war criminal are entirely justified.

I don't know if he sleeps well at night. I know I wouldn't, either way.

A mistake ? They were told time and time again that it was wrong,that the intelligence was bad, the information was false.They went ahead anyway.It was a crime, not a mistake.He's a war criminal that's his legacy,himself and chief propagandist Campbell used lies to take us into a illegal war.They should have been brought to trial.

 

[multitool]

A mistake ? They were told time and time again that it was wrong,that the intelligence was bad, the information was false.

By whom? The intelligence community?

From memory, the Hutton report had the criticism that intelligence was used in a way in which it shouldn't have been. It was reported as certainty when it should have been regarded with more of a nuanced eye. Blair put political pressure on the intelligence community to do this, hence the dodgy dossier. The dodgy dossier was more about Blair's beliefs than it was about the beliefs within the intelligence community.

I don't recall authoritative warnings about the nature of the intelligence before the war, hence my remark about hindsight. Maybe there were, but I can't remember any. Personally,I was vehemently against the war, as the notion of creating a power vacuum in a dictatorship seemed to me to be highly dangerous, and although the Iraqis certainly had possessed WMD including a nuclear programme, it seemed instinctively unlikely to me that they would be able to pursue it in any effective way given the regime of sanctions and airstrikes.

 

[BoldonLad]

By whom? The intelligence community?

From memory, the Hutton report had the criticism that intelligence was used in a way in which it shouldn't have been. It was reported as certainty when it should have been regarded with more of a nuanced eye. Blair put political pressure on the intelligence community to do this, hence the dodgy dossier. The dodgy dossier was more about Blair's beliefs than it was about the beliefs within the intelligence community.

I don't recall authoritative warnings about the nature of the intelligence before the war, hence my remark about hindsight. Maybe there were, but I can't remember any. Personally,I was vehemently against the war, as the notion of creating a power vacuum in a dictatorship seemed to me to be highly dangerous, and although the Iraqis certainly had possessed WMD including a nuclear programme, it seemed instinctively unlikely to me that they would be able to pursue it in any effective way given the regime of sanctions and airstrikes.

Not often I agree with @Adam4868 , but, on this I most certainly do, if this is true:

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/...ccuses-uk-of-systematic-failure-a7123136.html

It may be hindsight that WE know about it now, but, at the time, some people did some VERY naughty things.

 

[Deleted member 49]

By whom? The intelligence community?

From memory, the Hutton report had the criticism that intelligence was used in a way in which it shouldn't have been. It was reported as certainty when it should have been regarded with more of a nuanced eye. Blair put political pressure on the intelligence community to do this, hence the dodgy dossier. The dodgy dossier was more about Blair's beliefs than it was about the beliefs within the intelligence community.

I don't recall authoritative warnings about the nature of the intelligence before the war, hence my remark about hindsight. Maybe there were, but I can't remember any. Personally,I was vehemently against the war, as the notion of creating a power vacuum in a dictatorship seemed to me to be highly dangerous, and although the Iraqis certainly had possessed WMD including a nuclear programme, it seemed instinctively unlikely to me that they would be able to pursue it in any effective way given the regime of sanctions and airstrikes.

Chilcot found Blair deliberately exaggerated the threat posed by Iraq to create a pretext for war..interesting thread below on the lies that were used to justify the war.

View: https://twitter.com/StefSimanowitz/status/1620124404637114368?t=W3DVUiv174T1xkO-_wd6lg&s=19

 

[Deleted member 49]

Not often I agree with @Adam4868 , but, on this I most certainly do, if this is true:

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/...ccuses-uk-of-systematic-failure-a7123136.html

Screenshot that....it won't last long.

 

[BoldonLad]

Screenshot that....it won't last long.

True , but, enjoy the moment

 

[multitool]

Yes, it's not a point I'm going to labour, Adam, because broadly I agree with you. It saddens me immensely because clearly hundreds of thousands have died, and a whole country and society has been smashed to pieces, as well as a region put to the torch. But it also trashes what would have been a comparatively good legacy for Blair.

Yes, I know you've just lost control of your bowels reading that last sentence, but the key word is 'comparatively', and by that I mean the 30 years before Blair, and the 16 years after. ie. My lifetime. You can criticise Blair, but his era was palpably better than anything else in my lifetime, but for the war.

We will probably never know what went through his mind. Did he genuinely believe his own rhetoric? Was he seduced by US neo-con beliefs that removing Saddam would spark uprisings throughout the region and bring democracy? Or was it a mixture of post 9/11 fear coupled with hubris at successful intervention in the Balkans?

 

[Milzy]

By whom? The intelligence community?

From memory, the Hutton report had the criticism that intelligence was used in a way in which it shouldn't have been. It was reported as certainty when it should have been regarded with more of a nuanced eye. Blair put political pressure on the intelligence community to do this, hence the dodgy dossier. The dodgy dossier was more about Blair's beliefs than it was about the beliefs within the intelligence community.

I don't recall authoritative warnings about the nature of the intelligence before the war, hence my remark about hindsight. Maybe there were, but I can't remember any. Personally,I was vehemently against the war, as the notion of creating a power vacuum in a dictatorship seemed to me to be highly dangerous, and although the Iraqis certainly had possessed WMD including a nuclear programme, it seemed instinctively unlikely to me that they would be able to pursue it in any effective way given the regime of sanctions and airstrikes.

I listened to the Iraq 20th anniversary Warfare podcast on Spotify today at work. Both experts pretty much said what you said. They both agreed that although for a time they seemed to be doing some good progress overall, it has made things worse for the country and the west are now more likely to be targets of terrorism.
They talk about Putin been a bad man, Tony Blair isn’t all that much different.

 

[cookiemonster]

Why are the Tories Labour ignoring this?

View: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ANvX3PHc7dk

 

[albion]

There is a difference. Blair was either a moron or simply made an ill judged pact when he got support for Kosovo. .

Putin is difderent, driven by both power and hatred.

 

[Deleted member 49]

There is a difference. Blair was either a moron or simply made an ill judged pact when he got support for Kosovo. .

Putin is difderent, driven by both power and hatred.

Good war criminal v Bad war criminal ?

 

[multitool]

So let's have a thought experiment, Adam (and this is not a trap). If you think Blair believed his own warnings then his decision has some sort of basis in morality.

But you don't. So what do you think were his motivations to participate? Bear in mind that UK contribution was only 5%, and had no bearing on US capability or, I suspect, willingness to act.