Starmer's vision quest

[Psamathe]

But won't Starmer need at least some of the votes of the racists, if he is to have any chance of winning the next election ?

Labour seem to be making no efforts to win votes from Reform supporters; on the contrary, they seem to be doubling down efforts to offend them.

I wonder if attracting the votes from Reform might mean Starmer moving even further to the right. Given how far he already is to the right I wonder if such a move might los him a lot of the left side of Labour. Left oriented Labour voters will have alternatives, certainly Green Party and maybe Fruit & Nut Party. Maybe many are clinging on hoping Labour might return to Labour but I do wonder if faced with a ballot paper some might already decide they can't vote for LINO.

 

[Pross]

But won't Starmer need at least some of the votes of the racists, if he is to have any chance of winning the next election ?

Labour seem to be making no efforts to win votes from Reform supporters; on the contrary, they seem to be doubling down efforts to offend them.

Here's Yvette Cooper, calling the Reform voters "Plastic Patriots" - if she (& Labour) were really clever, they'd be seeking to win over Reform voters, because if they don't, they'll stand a very good chance of losing the next election.

Anyone can bluster and throw insults at the other side; it takes a skilled politician, to actually persuade voters to change tack and win much-needed votes.

https://www.itn.co.uk/news/yvette-cooper-slams-reform-uk-plastic-patriots

One of the problems with modern politics is that Parties no longer have a fundemental ethos and will say what they think people want to attract votes. It shouldn't be that way, they should stand for something and aim to persuade voters to share their ethos. It's a folly to chase after a faction that are unlikely to share most of your views as you'll just alienate the voters you already have who don't share those votes. The downfall of the Tories was their lurch towards chasing the far right votes and alienating the centre right that made up a large part of their core. Even if the Party membership are for it, the bulk of the UK voting population tend to be in the centre ground.

 

[Rusty Nails]

I wonder if attracting the votes from Reform might mean Starmer moving even further to the right. Given how far he already is to the right I wonder if such a move might los him a lot of the left side of Labour. Left oriented Labour voters will have alternatives, certainly Green Party and maybe Fruit & Nut Party. Maybe many are clinging on hoping Labour might return to Labour but I do wonder if faced with a ballot paper some might already decide they can't vote for LINO.

If a party concentrates on getting votes from either those who they consider to be traditionally ‘left’ or ‘right’ then they are likely to lose the election.
It will be determined not by ideology but by issues that voters see as important firstly to them and secondly to society and, scarily, one of those will be immigration and the other cost of living.
Rightly or wrongly loyalty to a party has all but vanished in the age of social media and with the shrinking of the market for party supporting newspapers, together with the cult of personality and the apparent vote-winning success of populism.
The only party leader with any sort of discernible personality is Farage (and I don’t mean that as a compliment).

 

[Psamathe]

It will be determined not by ideology but by issues that voters see as important firstly to them and secondly to society and, scarily, one of those will be immigration and the other cost of living.

I do wonder if that will change. Undoubtedly immigration is high profile now but not long ago NHS waiting lists were really big issue. Whilst NHS Waiting Lists coming down a bit they are still massively long with patients having to wait ludicrous times yet today it's not getting much profile atall.

With 4 years to the next scheduled General election I suspect other major issues will surpass immigration which might fade to lower significance. Plenty of other very impacting issues "waiting in the wings" eg food inflation far higher than the already far too high general inflation figure and one that has greater impact on those more traditional Labour voters.

 

[Stevo 666]

We are up to nearly 12,000 posts on 800 or so pages of this forum.
Has anyone discovered what Starmer's Vision Quest actually is?

Not sure how we're meant to discover that when it looks like Starmer doesn't know.

 

[BoldonLad]

More promises to “stop the boats”, I suppose, in the short term, winter will help.

 

[CXRAndy]

View: https://x.com/CamillaTominey/status/1972704499664839073?t=6iCecwKG4k0IMfZcQCoGwg&s=19

 

[Rusty Nails]

I do wonder if that will change. Undoubtedly immigration is high profile now but not long ago NHS waiting lists were really big issue. Whilst NHS Waiting Lists coming down a bit they are still massively long with patients having to wait ludicrous times yet today it's not getting much profile atall.

With 4 years to the next scheduled General election I suspect other major issues will surpass immigration which might fade to lower significance. Plenty of other very impacting issues "waiting in the wings" eg food inflation far higher than the already far too high general inflation figure and one that has greater impact on those more traditional Labour voters.

Immigration will only diminish as an issue if there is tangible change/reduction in the numbers, because Farage and his ilk, who have no other reason for existence, will keep it on the front pages, as will the Tories despite their record over the years. The only way Starmer can stop it being the main issue will be to actually do something, and be seen to be doing it, rather than just talk about it.

I agree that inflation will be an issue unless Reeves, or whoever eventually succeeds her, can get it down.

The health system and waiting lists will never completely disappear as an election issue.

On your last sentence I have already said that I believe "traditional" voters for the two monopoly parties are getting smaller in numbers.

 

[BoldonLad]

In the pondering about Labour v Reform, I notice the addition of a new group (ie 16 and 17 year olds) to the Electorate has not been mentioned. Does anyone know where their votes may go (other than not be used)? Personally, I would have guessed Labour or Green, but, a recent (statistically insignificant) conversation with my 16 year old grandson and some of his friends, surprised me.

 

[Rusty Nails]

In the pondering about Labour v Reform, I notice the addition of a new group (ie 16 and 17 year olds) to the Electorate has not been mentioned. Does anyone know where their votes may go (other than not be used)? Personally, I would have guessed Labour or Green, but, a recent (statistically insignificant) conversation with my 16 year old grandson and some of his friends, surprised me.

I believe that the younger voters are, the less they are likely to be hamstrung by loyalty to any party.

 

[BoldonLad]

I believe that the younger voters are, the less they are likely to be hamstrung by loyalty to any party.

Yes, that did fit with the tiny (5 off) sample in question.

Also, not being "hamstrung" by memories of (feeling) they have been "wronged" by a given party.

 

[midlandsgrimpeur]

Could you clarify who "they" are?

Labour have hardly covered themselves in glory with resect to Gaza, does that mean everyone who voted forth supports this stance, and, therefore supports genocide?

Farage, Rupert Lowe, Musk, Robinson. The usual players and their media champions who, since Labour called Farage's proposed policy racist, have been claiming that Starmer called all Reform voters racist which he clearly did not.

 

[bobzmyunkle]

Yes I am, you can join us Stevo but I fear you are too far gone.

Hasn't @Stevo 666 left the country yet? I'm sure he told us the millionaires were leaving, and after all, a million isn't much these days, is it?
There again maybe he hasn't got a million and he's just a forelock tugger?

 

[midlandsgrimpeur]

But won't Starmer need at least some of the votes of the racists, if he is to have any chance of winning the next election ?

Labour seem to be making no efforts to win votes from Reform supporters; on the contrary, they seem to be doubling down efforts to offend them.

Here's Yvette Cooper, calling the Reform voters "Plastic Patriots" - if she (& Labour) were really clever, they'd be seeking to win over Reform voters, because if they don't, they'll stand a very good chance of losing the next election.

Anyone can bluster and throw insults at the other side; it takes a skilled politician, to actually persuade voters to change tack and win much-needed votes.

https://www.itn.co.uk/news/yvette-cooper-slams-reform-uk-plastic-patriots

When I am talking about racists, I am referring to the people in charge, not their voters.

I would have to disagree, Labour have done nothing for months but try and court Reform voters. Word is that they are planning to toughen ILR in the wake of Farage's proposed policy. If true, that is certainly aimed at attracting Reform votes.

I don't think Reform voters are Labour's problem, the main issue for them is immigration and Labour's line is unlikely to be strong enough to tempt them. They are likely chasing unwinnable votes.

Labour's main issue is losing people that voted for them last year, particularly social progressives who would be more likely to switch Lib Dem or Green.

This Farage and Labour article below gives an interesting analysis and seems quite relevant.

https://politicscentre.nuffield.ox.ac.uk/news-and-events/news/

 

[icowden]

That is very possibly true, but, Starmer (or, whoever is leader come the next election) needs to win over more than just the “staunch left wingers”, if they are to win.

He didn't really win them over in the first place. Labour didn't "win" the election inasmuch as the Tories "lost" the election. As far as I am aware people voted to unseat Tories regardless of whether it needed a LIb Dem, Labour or Reform vote. In my area there was an 8.4% swing to Lib Dem, an 8.9% swing to Reform but a 0.5% swing to Labour. Our Tory candidate got 16,312 votes whereas his predecessor, Raab, got as many as 35,000 votes.

Labour only had a 1.6% swing in 2024 compared to 12.3% for Reform, 3.8% for the Greens. Reform divided the Tory vote letting Labour win. Labour didn't have a Blair sized mandate.