Starmer's vision quest

[BoldonLad]

He didn't really win them over in the first place. Labour didn't "win" the election inasmuch as the Tories "lost" the election. As far as I am aware people voted to unseat Tories regardless of whether it needed a LIb Dem, Labour or Reform vote. In my area there was an 8.4% swing to Lib Dem, an 8.9% swing to Reform but a 0.5% swing to Labour. Our Tory candidate got 16,312 votes whereas his predecessor, Raab, got as many as 35,000 votes.

Labour only had a 1.6% swing in 2024 compared to 12.3% for Reform, 3.8% for the Greens. Reform divided the Tory vote letting Labour win. Labour didn't have a Blair sized mandate.

From what you say, it is unlikely that there were enough "staunch left wings" to matter, even if Starmer had won them over. I certainly accept that labour didn't win the election, the Tories lost it.

However, we are not talking about what happened in the last election, we are talking about what may happen in the next election.

As I have said before, the area in which I live is (or, maybe was) staunch Labour, staunch Tories are as rare as staunch Left wingers probably are in your area. But, perhaps sadly, it would appear the former Labour cannon fodder are unhappy, and, at present, are moving toward Reform, it is these people who Starmer (or whoever, for Labour) needs to retain or win back, otherwise, Labour is going to have an upset in their heartlands.

Ultimately elections are not (usually) won in "safe" seats such as your or my area, but, in the marginals.

 

[Stevo 666]

Hasn't @Stevo 666 left the country yet? I'm sure he told us the millionaires were leaving, and after all, a million isn't much these days, is it?
There again maybe he hasn't got a million and he's just a forelock tugger?

Guess it's not something you've had to think about? 😉

 

[Xipe Totec]

Hasn't @Stevo 666 left the country yet? I'm sure he told us the millionaires were leaving, and after all, a million isn't much these days, is it?
There again maybe he hasn't got a million and he's just a forelock tugger?

'Temporarily embarrassed', like all NACA's wannabe right-wing plutocrats almost certainly are, perhaps.

 

[icowden]

Ultimately elections are not (usually) won in "safe" seats such as your or my area, but, in the marginals.

Interestingly my seat is no longer safe - hence we have a Lib Dem MP now. Raab and his ilk spaffed the safety up the wall. Labour is not going to get a look in here - what this area wants is economic stability, which used to be the province of the Conservative Party until it caught Johnsonitis. I think it may now be past curing.

 

[CXRAndy]

View: https://x.com/ZiaYusufUK/status/1972732389962203238?t=a53i39vIDv4ghkp7vnydtg&s=19

 

[midlandsgrimpeur]

From what you say, it is unlikely that there were enough "staunch left wings" to matter, even if Starmer had won them over. I certainly accept that labour didn't win the election, the Tories lost it.

However, we are not talking about what happened in the last election, we are talking about what may happen in the next election.

As I have said before, the area in which I live is (or, maybe was) staunch Labour, staunch Tories are as rare as staunch Left wingers probably are in your area. But, perhaps sadly, it would appear the former Labour cannon fodder are unhappy, and, at present, are moving toward Reform, it is these people who Starmer (or whoever, for Labour) needs to retain or win back, otherwise, Labour is going to have an upset in their heartlands.

Ultimately elections are not (usually) won in "safe" seats such as your or my area, but, in the marginals.

This is a long read but worth it and echoes what I said up thread, that the greater likelihood for Labour is losing voters to Libs/Green and not Reform. I understand the labour to reform argument and it does make sense, but I am not actually convinced it will pan out that way. I think Tory to Reform is far more likely amongst potential voters.

https://benansell.substack.com/p/british-politics-midlife-crisis

 

[CXRAndy]

Some labour voters may go over to libs/greens but not many. Libs/Gr are seen as crazies.

Reform voters consist of mostly tories and a significant chunk of moderate labour voters.

The far left voters will be swept up by Corbyn Jezbollah party, if it ever gets going. They are diehard Corbynites

 

[briantrumpet]

This is a long read but worth it and echoes what I said up thread, that the greater likelihood for Labour is losing voters to Libs/Green and not Reform. I understand the labour to reform argument and it does make sense, but I am not actually convinced it will pan out that way. I think Tory to Reform is far more likely amongst potential voters.

https://benansell.substack.com/p/british-politics-midlife-crisis

It's the point I've been banging on about: in their quest to chase a handful of Reform voters (who are probably lost to Reform anyway, as they seem to lose use of reverse gear once in that cul de sac), they've alienated the hundreds of thousands of voters who lent them their vote in 2024 to rid us of the damned Tories, as well as the more staunchly leftist Labour voters who might now drift off to the Greens (even if that does allow Farage o become PM).

I can see myself voting tactically again in 2029 (or whenever), though I'd rather vote for a party that roughly shared my values and was honest with the electorate.

(Haha, who am I kidding? - none of the parties will be honest come the election, as the electorate will vote for the Most Preposterous Unicorns Party.)

 

[CXRAndy]

Labour are following democrat playbook import as many illegals as possible, give them benefits, voting rights in the hope of swamping the vote to lock Labour in power

 

[midlandsgrimpeur]

It's the point I've been banging on about: in their quest to chase a handful of Reform voters (who are probably lost to Reform anyway, as they seem to lose use of reverse gear once in that cul de sac), they've alienated the hundreds of thousands of voters who lent them their vote in 2024 to rid us of the damned Tories, as well as the more staunchly leftist Labour voters who might now drift off to the Greens (even if that does allow Farage o become PM).

I can see myself voting tactically again in 2029 (or whenever), though I'd rather vote for a party that roughly shared my values and was honest with the electorate.

(Haha, who am I kidding? - none of the parties will be honest come the election, as the electorate will vote for the Most Preposterous Unicorns Party.)

I have shared the same thoughts, this constant chasing of unwinnable votes is pointless and the grand architect of this deluded plan, as we have both said before is McSweeney. They won't do it, but rather than enacting policy (bad policy at that) they might be best served to now focus on delivering. Start off with a budget that actually does what it needs to start to do, raise money to invest in public services. Have a grown up conversation with the electorate about this and where the money will go. People will be more swayed if they start to see improvements to their lives, local services, economic prospects etc. When did governments stop governing? It just seems from day one that they are solely concerned with electioneering.

 

[Dorset Boy]

So if all those former red wall seats (which also heavily supported Brexit) that Boris won in 2019 go to Reform at the next election, will that be considered as Labour voters switching to Reform or Tory voters switching to Reform?
Reform aren't going to win without 'traditional' Labour voters voting for them, and they have to be getting support from those traditional Labour voters judging by the current polls.

 

[briantrumpet]

I have shared the same thoughts, this constant chasing of unwinnable votes is pointless and the grand architect of this deluded plan, as we have both said before is McSweeney. They won't do it, but rather than enacting policy (bad policy at that) they might be best served to now focus on delivering. Start off with a budget that actually does what it needs to start to do, raise money to invest in public services. Have a grown up conversation with the electorate about this and where the money will go. People will be more swayed if they start to see improvements to their lives, local services, economic prospects etc. When did governments stop governing? It just seems from day one that they are solely concerned with electioneering.

They should have taken the potential hit to their support right at the start, rather than this reactive attempt to woo Reform voters now. Each successive announcement (such as the Reformy ILR immigrants being forced to do 'voluntary' work) follows the 'the last announcement didn't work, so let's make this one even more Reformy!' pattern of failure. How long before they cut their losses and focus on their traditional values and voter base?

There's no magic bullet though, as the electorate wants a magic solution, and the reward will probably be Shît For Everyone. And they will still blame immigrants rather than their own ignorance.

 

[C R]

It's the point I've been banging on about: in their quest to chase a handful of Reform voters (who are probably lost to Reform anyway, as they seem to lose use of reverse gear once in that cul de sac), they've alienated the hundreds of thousands of voters who lent them their vote in 2024 to rid us of the damned Tories, as well as the more staunchly leftist Labour voters who might now drift off to the Greens (even if that does allow Farage o become PM).

I can see myself voting tactically again in 2029 (or whenever), though I'd rather vote for a party that roughly shared my values and was honest with the electorate.

(Haha, who am I kidding? - none of the parties will be honest come the election, as the electorate will vote for the Most Preposterous Unicorns Party.)

Some of us already raised that point in this very thread before the election last year.

 

[CXRAndy]

View: https://x.com/TimesRadio/status/1972683003450085592?t=9xQ0wQka3Ay3UnqqXLYOGQ&s=19


He's right and he's wrong.

Its not racist to worry about thousands of undocumented men staying around the corner from your children's school

Its not racist to worry about the ever burdening costs of social welfare from illegal and legal migration.

Labour gave Reform a huge 👍 up by calling their supporters racist and anyone else with similar thoughts

 

[icowden]

Reform aren't going to win without 'traditional' Labour voters voting for them, and they have to be getting support from those traditional Labour voters judging by the current polls.

Why not? The Conservatives managed it. All Reform have to do is obliterate the Conservatives and replace them and they seem to be on track to do that.