Labour fall under 20%
Extinction territory for a political an established political party
Not really. You have to read
all of the details.
The main trend since the General Election has been the growth of Reform UK, driven by them by retaining almost all of their 2024 GE support (retaining far more than any other party), winning over over a third (38%) of 2024 GE Conservative voters, and winning over two thirds (67%) of people who didn’t vote in 2024 but say they would “definitely vote” this time.
Yes, Labour isn't doing well, but Reform isn't winning anyone except the Conservatives and people who didn't vote but promise to vote this time. Do you really think that they will?
That said, Reform at this stage would win easily as the Tories are just running around in their pants, smearing excrement on the wall and Labour is trying an experiment whereby they don't do anything that their supporters want. It's a very avant-garde tactic, but someone really does need to tell them it isn't working.
There are small oases of promise - Milliband is doing a blinder on energy, and Labour are slowly undoing some of the Brexit damage but rather than going round shouting that they have fixed things, it's more like they are doing repairs while burgling a house. Mustn't get caught out doing good things...
If you stand for change and then do more of the same but with softer edges, your goose is cooked.
Meanwhile Farage stands for change and is sticking to the tried and tested Trumpian principle of promising whatever he wants without actually having to demonstrate that it's possible or stick to any promises made. It turns out that lying is the best way to power. If Labour had any sense they would be legislating to prevent that. They have control of the legislature. They could introduce PR, they could make laws that make key manifesto promises binding. They could do all sorts.
They just aren't.