Starmer's vision quest

[First Aspect]

Considering current polling, it's consistently been in the low 50s in favour of independence over the last 5 years or so, typically using unrepresentative weighting models that reflect the 2014 demographic.

I don't have the figures to hand but at the point when Cameron granted the S30 for the last vote, it was in the high 20s to low 30s. That being the reason he was willing to allow it, dodgy little gambler that he was.

Ah, I see, so your solution is to ignore the actual polling numbers. Alrighty then.

 

[First Aspect]

I think this is a good take on where Starmer is.

View attachment 10716

https://www.linestotake.com/p/the-median-voter-isnt-a-labourreform

I think there is a lot of weight being placed in this article upon by-election voting patterns in a fairly rural Welsh constituency.

The author is also confusing traditional left leaning voters with those who voted Labour (to get rid of the Tories) in 2024.

 

[Xipe Totec]

I did, but you seem aggrieved at something that in reality is absolutely fair and reasonable.

I also wanted to pick up on your accusation of gaslighting. The definition of that term does not encompass merely not getting the answer you want.

If does however potentially include creating a false grievance about it.

The reason, incidentally, that the Murrell trial is significant is because if you can't run a small political party, how are you possibly going to be able to run a whole country?

I am interested in hearing you thoughts on non democratic routes to independence.

I do think you're misinterpreting me, and I'm unsure what you think I'm 'aggreived' at.

I think Swinney's approach is idiotic, guaranteed to fail & risks losing Holyrood altogether. Trying to convince voters that this is a realistic route to a referendum strikes me as akin to gaslighting.

It's the timing of the Murrell trial I'm referring to, not the fact it's happening - but mentioning it the way you do does feel reminiscent of the nutters who squeak about 'SNP dictatorship' following independence, as though there won't be any more elections.

As I said, I don't know what a possible route to independence looks like in the absence of a referendum. Although using the Holyrood election as a defacto referendum - flawed strategy as it is - would seem more reasonable than Swinney's ludicrous, suicidal approach.

 

[Xipe Totec]

Ah, I see, so your solution is to ignore the actual polling numbers. Alrighty then.

I keep reading your replies and have no idea what the hell you think you're responding to.

Are you OK?

 

[AndyRM]

Any chance of including Worcester as an exclave?

Sure, why not? I went there once and quite liked it. Although at this rate we're running the risk of creating a new republic/nation state and that will probably be frowned upon.

 

[First Aspect]

I keep reading your replies and have no idea what the hell you think you're responding to.

Are you OK?

Actual support is around or below 50%. Adjusted, it's somehow above. It's a fairly straightforward jibe.

It is an entirely different question as to whether 50%+1 is actually an acceptable way to determine a question of such importance or complexity, or simply a great way to create a divided nation.

I think the post Brexit politics of the UK as a whole is still coloured by Brexit and we are highly divided on the issue. Scottish politics is like this in microcosm. And very much a case of with us or against us.

 

[CXRAndy]

If Scotland is to become independent, I don't know what the process will be - but it won't be a referendum.

I wish you well on your quest, if I had my wish I grant Scotland independence yesterday

 

[midlandsgrimpeur]

https://www.linestotake.com/p/the-median-voter-isnt-a-labourreform

As a few of us have been saying, Labour to Reform voters is not the problem for Labour. I am still wondering when Starmer is going to realise this?

 

[CXRAndy]

Billions of pounds squandered on illegal migrant hotels.

Better to immediately deport

View: https://x.com/pippaisright/status/1982704042833789388?t=55vSwwnCgVMmvbENZr9gog&s=19

 

[First Aspect]

I do think you're misinterpreting me, and I'm unsure what you think I'm 'aggreived' at.

I think Swinney's approach is idiotic, guaranteed to fail & risks losing Holyrood altogether. Trying to convince voters that this is a realistic route to a referendum strikes me as akin to gaslighting.

It's the timing of the Murrell trial I'm referring to, not the fact it's happening - but mentioning it the way you do does feel reminiscent of the nutters who squeak about 'SNP dictatorship' following independence, as though there won't be any more elections.

As I said, I don't know what a possible route to independence looks like in the absence of a referendum. Although using the Holyrood election as a defacto referendum - flawed strategy as it is - would seem more reasonable than Swinney's ludicrous, suicidal approach.

There has been some questionable interference over the years by the SNP in the Scottish judicial system, most particularly in the effective bullying that lead to the failed Supreme Court case, which was pursued against all legal advice.

Most worrying was the thinking behind proposed changes to regulating the legal profession at the peak of the SNPs delusions, which bore all the hallmarks of erroding the separation of powers.

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/nicola-sturgeon-s-disturbing-attack-on-the-rule-of-law/

So the timing of the Murrell case is in fact reassuring, and merely reflects due process.

 

[Psamathe]

Considering current polling, it's consistently been in the low 50s in favour of independence over the last 5 years or so, typically using unrepresentative weighting models that reflect the 2014 demographic.

Whilst polling has an associated error margin, for some issues I wonder is human psychology might introduce unpredictable effects or rather resistance to change.

eg it's very easy for me to say I'd happily put all my savings into an investment with a 20% pa return but come the time I have to put my signature of the "approve investment" form I might pause and reflect on the risks.

On the independence polling, difficulty is that for some time people have not been making the case for and against. My impression is SNP say they are pursuing independence but economic assessments, social assessments, challenges, etc. are not being analysed, presented & debated and those could change what is for now an answer to a pollster without any impact.

 

[Psamathe]

https://www.linestotake.com/p/the-median-voter-isnt-a-labourreform

As a few of us have been saying, Labour to Reform voters is not the problem for Labour. I am still wondering when Starmer is going to realise this?

He's had plenty of opportunities to realise this, many others (including his new deputy leader) have been telling him and he's ignoring it. He's not great at listening to input from outside his exclusive clique so "don't hold your breath".

I suspect the only chance he'll change is after some disaster that threatens his leadership when he'll come out with some new strategy and ignore his ongoing pattern mistakes.

 

[Xipe Totec]

It's funny how people seem so keen to discuss, pick apart & rubbish polling for something that is absolutely not going to happen. Wonder what that's about?

And does MAGAndy think that Nigel The Fascist would immediately cut Scotland free the very moment he boots in the door of No. 10?

Rude awakenings can be funny, can't they?

 

[midlandsgrimpeur]

He's had plenty of opportunities to realise this, many others (including his new deputy leader) have been telling him and he's ignoring it. He's not great at listening to input from outside his exclusive clique so "don't hold your breath".

I suspect the only chance he'll change is after some disaster that threatens his leadership when he'll come out with some new strategy and ignore his ongoing pattern mistakes.

It is so plain to see though, and he is obviously an intelligent man. I would love to know why he doesn't seem to believe that to be the case. I know many of us have discussed the McSweeney influence. Is he that invested in McSweeney's advice?

 

[C R]

It is so plain to see though, and he is obviously an intelligent man. I would love to know why he doesn't seem to believe that to be the case. I know many of us have discussed the McSweeney influence. Is he that invested in McSweeney's advice?

Is he though? From what I've read about his time in the CPS it looks like he might have landed the top job as a consequence of the Peter Principle.

Regarding his ascent to the leadership of the labour party, he is looking more and more like a tool for the traditional right to take over the labour party once the tories became unelectable. Just a front for others.