These Covid Polices Are Going Well .....

deptfordmarmoset

Senior Member
Yes, another possible distortion in the figures. How do we know that testing is uniform across all of the examples quoted?

I repeat, I am not trying to justify or excuse the UK figures, but, there are some very suspect numbers being bandied about, and has been for the last 12-18 months. Personally, I am beginning to disregard just about all of them, no matter where the originate from. I suspect, I am not alone.
I think you can safely assume that testing is never uniform across countries but those with open democracies, such as in northern mainland Europe, will be more likely to be producing similar results using broadly comparable methods. Countries with ''populist'' governments or those with an unfree or unrepresentative press will be more likely to produce underestimates, IMO.
 

BoldonLad

Old man on a bike. Not a member of a clique.
Location
South Tyneside
I think you can safely assume that testing is never uniform across countries but those with open democracies, such as in northern mainland Europe, will be more likely to be producing similar results using broadly comparable methods. Countries with ''populist'' governments or those with an unfree or unrepresentative press will be more likely to produce underestimates, IMO.

So, mainland Europe is using questionable accuracy Chinese Lateral Flow tests too?

I seriously doubt the figures being quoted. According to BBC, there have been over 35,000 NEW infections per day, for months now. That is a lot of infections (say 35,000 * 30 * 3, assuming last three months, I think it is longer), that's over 3million. Does anyone actually believe that?
 

deptfordmarmoset

Senior Member
So, mainland Europe is using questionable accuracy Chinese Lateral Flow tests too?

I seriously doubt the figures being quoted. According to BBC, there have been over 35,000 NEW infections per day, for months now. That is a lot of infections (say 35,000 * 30 * 3, assuming last three months, I think it is longer), that's over 3million. Does anyone actually believe that?
Lateral flow tests are pretty much early-warning tests, the infection figures should be the more accurate PCR tests. As for 3 million infected over 3 months, it's worth bearing in mind that the Zoe app gives current (as opposed to new) cases at over one million.
 

Milkfloat

Active Member
So, mainland Europe is using questionable accuracy Chinese Lateral Flow tests too?

I seriously doubt the figures being quoted. According to BBC, there have been over 35,000 NEW infections per day, for months now. That is a lot of infections (say 35,000 * 30 * 3, assuming last three months, I think it is longer), that's over 3million. Does anyone actually believe that?
I can believe the 3 million figure, don't forget that the schools have gone back, both my kids have Covid ripping through the school - just yesterday my sons whole class were sent home for remote learning because 13 kids out of 31 have tested positive at almost the same time. The emails form my daughters school (secondary) at the start of term listed which class was affected and also the buses that the children were on with requests for PCR tests, day by day the lists got longer, the last email we received basically stated that Covid was everywhere and they would have to list every class and bus so they were stopping the emails. My daughter has done 7 PCR tests almost 1 a week since term started, going by the letters it should have been pretty much every day in the last month.
 

Pale Rider

Well-Known Member
So, mainland Europe is using questionable accuracy Chinese Lateral Flow tests too?

I seriously doubt the figures being quoted. According to BBC, there have been over 35,000 NEW infections per day, for months now. That is a lot of infections (say 35,000 * 30 * 3, assuming last three months, I think it is longer), that's over 3million. Does anyone actually believe that?

Anything in the millions is hard to grasp, although as you've pointed out whatever the doubts over the figures, we do appear to be doing worse than the developed western European countries.

I think are generally higher population density counts against us, as has switching off restrictions like a light.

Not much we can do about the former, but we could do something about the latter, however unpalatable that might be.
 

BoldonLad

Old man on a bike. Not a member of a clique.
Location
South Tyneside
I can believe the 3 million figure, don't forget that the schools have gone back, both my kids have Covid ripping through the school - just yesterday my sons whole class were sent home for remote learning because 13 kids out of 31 have tested positive at almost the same time. The emails form my daughters school (secondary) at the start of term listed which class was affected and also the buses that the children were on with requests for PCR tests, day by day the lists got longer, the last email we received basically stated that Covid was everywhere and they would have to list every class and bus so they were stopping the emails. My daughter has done 7 PCR tests almost 1 a week since term started, going by the letters it should have been pretty much every day in the last month.
Yes, I can believe the school situation. Based on observing my OAP associates, I have long thought that school children to grand parents (doing school run/ babysitting) was a major transmission route.

I even know someone who was merrily wandering around two different shopping centres on two consecutive days, after their grandchild (who they ferry to/from school), had tested positive.
 
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deptfordmarmoset

Senior Member
Anything in the millions is hard to grasp, although as you've pointed out whatever the doubts over the figures, we do appear to be doing worse than the developed western European countries.

I think are generally higher population density counts against us, as has switching off restrictions like a light.

Not much we can do about the former, but we could do something about the latter, however unpalatable that might be.
On the higher population density, it's worth saying that I watched the spread of the delta variant work its way London-wards from north Kent (Swale, that's around the Isle of Sheppey). That's not an area recognised for high population density but that's where it prospered and spread from. The arrival of delta as the prevalent strain in London did not make for worse figures than it did for the rest of the country. And, curiously, the only places where infection rates show as below 200 in 100,000 on this current BBC link to government data https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51768274 - are 9 inner London boroughs, plus Shetland and the outer Hebrides. Sparsity of population off mainland Scotland, sure, but definitely not in inner London.
 

BoldonLad

Old man on a bike. Not a member of a clique.
Location
South Tyneside
On the higher population density, it's worth saying that I watched the spread of the delta variant work its way London-wards from north Kent (Swale, that's around the Isle of Sheppey). That's not an area recognised for high population density but that's where it prospered and spread from. The arrival of delta as the prevalent strain in London did not make for worse figures than it did for the rest of the country. And, curiously, the only places where infection rates show as below 200 in 100,000 on this current BBC link to government data https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51768274 - are 9 inner London boroughs, plus Shetland and the outer Hebrides. Sparsity of population off mainland Scotland, sure, but definitely not in inner London.
Curious indeed. Not what would be expected, from the perceived wisdom. IMHO. Which, just makes me think there are significant gaps in our knowledge.
 

deptfordmarmoset

Senior Member
On the higher population density, it's worth saying that I watched the spread of the delta variant work its way London-wards from north Kent (Swale, that's around the Isle of Sheppey). That's not an area recognised for high population density but that's where it prospered and spread from. The arrival of delta as the prevalent strain in London did not make for worse figures than it did for the rest of the country. And, curiously, the only places where infection rates show as below 200 in 100,000 on this current BBC link to government data https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51768274 - are 9 inner London boroughs, plus Shetland and the outer Hebrides. Sparsity of population off mainland Scotland, sure, but definitely not in inner London.
For reasons which escape me, the edit function appears to have disappeared, so this is just to add the Orkneys to the low infection rate areas. Apologies to Orcadians for leaving them out.
 
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FishFright

FishFright

Well-Known Member
However we quibble the figures it's not looking good here and when you're out and about the rapidly diminishing mask wear is a very worrying trend.
 

BoldonLad

Old man on a bike. Not a member of a clique.
Location
South Tyneside
However we quibble the figures it's not looking good here and when you're out and about the rapidly diminishing mask wear is a very worrying trend.

From observation, this much is true. When I went for my booster jab (to an NHS vaccination centre) less than half the staff I encountered were wearing a mask, similarly with my fellow jabbees. In case of doubt, I wasn't wearing one either.
 
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FishFright

FishFright

Well-Known Member
From observation, this much is true. When I went for my booster jab (to an NHS vaccination centre) less than half the staff I encountered were wearing a mask, similarly with my fellow jabbees. In case of doubt, I wasn't wearing one either.

When I went for my flu jab everyone there was wearing one including me because being part of the problem is always a bad thing.

ETA Unlike at the shops where the numbers who were masked was very worrying.
 

BoldonLad

Old man on a bike. Not a member of a clique.
Location
South Tyneside
When I went for my flu jab everyone there was wearing one including me because being part of the problem is always a bad thing.

ETA Unlike at the shops where the numbers who were masked was very worrying.
Is there any evidence that any of the many, many countries, which are performing better than UK, have higher mask wearing figures? In particular, any of our European or Scandinavian cousins?
 
Is there any evidence that any of the many, many countries, which are performing better than UK, have higher mask wearing figures? In particular, any of our European or Scandinavian cousins?

I have not been to France this year but when I was over there in August 2000 their mask compliance was better than in the UK.

Mrs B was challenged by Security in the Hypermarket for wearing a faceguard rather than a mask. In the UK she's borderline exempt because she's had several episodes of breathing difficulty and associated panic while wearing a mask; mostly linked with physical exertion, for example on lengthy staircases.
 
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