War with Russia

[C R]

Eh?

 

[Ian H]

Eh?

Garbage in, garbage out.

 

[bobzmyunkle]

Peter Thiel, founder of Palantir, is the real pupet master.

View: https://youtu.be/riX2Ww80Ow0?si=9oCVZ2drxVsQG34e

 

[RecordAceFromNew]

Trump doesn't have the strategic understanding to be formulating a longer plan than whatever makes him "look good" in the next week, but I think there is something dark going on in the MAGA republican elite.

I am getting more to thinking that this is about normalising relationships with Putin, removing sanctions and Ukraine just happens to be in the way. US administration is basically trying everything now to get Ukraine to crumble in order to get it out of the way.

Why any US administration is so keen to do this, and willing to jettison decades of carefully cultivated alliances to do so is beyond me.

Stowie I hope you don’t mind my picking your post for its many likes, and for mirroring many of the current "conventional wisdom” on Trump. The point I want to make, is that in this day and age, if we don’t try to read AND understand what our supposed political ‘opponents’ (be they Trump, Putin, Xi, etc.) are saying, we are going to be blind as a bat.

The proof, is that anyone who has done an ounce of research would have found everything Trump has done has been building up for years in Project 2025, widely disseminated by the Heritage Foundation, and explained e.g. in this book with foreword by Vance. Essentially that was the Republican manifesto in detail.

The pertinent question, is how then can we explain the spectacle of European (incl. UK) political leaders and journalists being in shock now and running around like headless chicken? What else could possibly have been the reason, but that nearly every single one of them have been so far up the displaced Neocons’ backsides for so many decades, that they have actually all gone blind?

FWIW, I think it is unarguable that many of the Foundation’s diagnostics are correct - e.g. re the Swamp, the American empire overreach, the proxy war in Ukraine, the demise of family value, etc. They are certainly right on the money regarding US’ de-industrialisation, government overspending / $ over-printing, and the corresponding rise of China combining as an existential threat to America’s way of life, so much so that drastic changes are imperative urgently. So what but slavishness, hubris and blindness could have caused US’ allies' failure to see and anticipate this?

However, imho unlike the diagnostics, Trump & Co.’s self-prescribed medicines are mostly pants. But even if they were much much better, they would have been too little, too late. But that is an entirely different story.

 

[AndyRM]

Eh. What?

I don't think anyone is in shock or running around like headless chickens, but it's pretty difficult for anyone to know where they stand when a demented f*ckwit is in charge of the US.

 

[stowie]

Stowie I hope you don’t mind my picking your post for its many likes, and for mirroring many of the current "conventional wisdom” on Trump. The point I want to make, is that in this day and age, if we don’t try to read AND understand what our supposed political ‘opponents’ (be they Trump, Putin, Xi, etc.) are saying, we are going to be blind as a bat.

The proof, is that anyone who has done an ounce of research would have found everything Trump has done has been building up for years in Project 2025, widely disseminated by the Heritage Foundation, and explained e.g. in this book with foreword by Vance. Essentially that was the Republican manifesto in detail.

The pertinent question, is how then can we explain the spectacle of European (incl. UK) political leaders and journalists being in shock now and running around like headless chicken? What else could possibly have been the reason, but that nearly every single one of them have been so far up the displaced Neocons’ backsides for so many decades, that they have actually all gone blind?

FWIW, I think it is unarguable that many of the Foundation’s diagnostics are correct - e.g. re the Swamp, the American empire overreach, the proxy war in Ukraine, the demise of family value, etc. They are certainly right on the money regarding US’ de-industrialisation, government overspending / $ over-printing, and the corresponding rise of China combining as an existential threat to America’s way of life, so much so that drastic changes are imperative urgently. So what but slavishness, hubris and blindness could have caused US’ allies' failure to see and anticipate this?

However, imho unlike the diagnostics, Trump & Co.’s self-prescribed medicines are mostly pants. But even if they were much much better, they would have been too little, too late. But that is an entirely different story.

I agree that the effects of globalisation was never mitigated in a way that benefited those negatively affected. Of course, a lot of people in the US (and Europe) benefited from globalisation with cheaper goods (whether this is good or bad is a different matter).

I am largely of the Gary Stevenson theory of what is going wrong. That is, inequality in wealth is having a profound effect. This is not just manifested in "share of pie", but in the profound effect it has on assets (housing, shares) etc. and the discrepancy between reward from passive income and work. Trump is exactly the wrong answer if Stevenson's theory is correct - he will preside over almost unprecedented transfer of funds from the poorest to the richest at a time when US inequality is already very high.

I think my confusion is the foreign policy rather than domestic. Attacking close allies such as Canada and Europe, being so aligned with Russia that propaganda is repeated verbatim. I get why Trump doesn't view Ukraine as existential in the same way as many European countries - Russia isn't on their doorstep. But to be so pro-Putin seems a strange stance. Even the "get tough" rhetoric of recent days after Putin used the reduction in US intelligence to bombard Ukrainian cities was utterly toothless. Increase sanctions? Russia is already the most sanctioned Nation ever. Tariffs? Russia, before the war didn't do much trade with the US, tariffs will be meaningless. It seemed a way to try to be a bit "fairer" in light of Russian attacks in Ukraine without actually hurting Putin. Finally, the Russia stance makes little sense economically (or business wise) either. The US is burning bridges with key huge established markets so that it can engage in a country which produces little of what it needs and has an economy that is smaller than Italy? That also makes no sense.

I think the intention of the Trump government has surprised no-one. The scale and speed that it is dismantling domestic and foreign norms should be a surprise - it shows that the fabled "checks and balances" were a chimera against a determined wrecking ball.

 

[the snail]

 

[Psamathe]

Fairly staggering report but maybe highlights what is going on in the White House and why I think Trump is not going to find any solutions

At the Council on Foreign Relations, Keith Kellogg, the White House’s special envoy for Ukraine and Russia:

“Very candidly, they brought it on themselves, the Ukrainians,” Kellogg said as the veteran diplomats, academics, and journalists in the room recoiled in surprise. Several held their faces in their hands. “I think the best way I can describe it is sort of like hitting a mule with a two-by-four across the nose,” he continued. “You got their attention, and it’s very significant, obviously, because of the support that we give.”
(from https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...-themselves-a-new-low-in-us-ukraine-relations)

Ian

 

[Pblakeney]

I see that the captain of the cargo ship that hit the U.S. tanker is a Russian national.
Does this count as a Russian attack on the U.S.?

 

[Ian H]

I see that the captain of the cargo ship that hit the U.S. tanker is a Russian national.
Does this count as a Russian attack on the U.S.?

Depends who you ask.

 

[BoldonLad]

I see that the captain of the cargo ship that hit the U.S. tanker is a Russian national.
Does this count as a Russian attack on the U.S.?

depends if there is a "deal" to be done. Does Trump have interest in a Salvage Company, and/or a ship repair facility in the area?

 

[monkers]

depends if there is a "deal" to be done. Does Trump have interest in a Salvage Company, and/or a ship repair facility in the area?

No he has a paint company. One ship was carrying black paint, the other red paint. Thankfully the crew were not marooned.

 

[RecordAceFromNew]

I think my confusion is the foreign policy rather than domestic. Attacking close allies such as Canada and Europe, being so aligned with Russia that propaganda is repeated verbatim. I get why Trump doesn't view Ukraine as existential in the same way as many European countries - Russia isn't on their doorstep. But to be so pro-Putin seems a strange stance. Even the "get tough" rhetoric of recent days after Putin used the reduction in US intelligence to bombard Ukrainian cities was utterly toothless. Increase sanctions? Russia is already the most sanctioned Nation ever. Tariffs? Russia, before the war didn't do much trade with the US, tariffs will be meaningless. It seemed a way to try to be a bit "fairer" in light of Russian attacks in Ukraine without actually hurting Putin. Finally, the Russia stance makes little sense economically (or business wise) either. The US is burning bridges with key huge established markets so that it can engage in a country which produces little of what it needs and has an economy that is smaller than Italy? That also makes no sense.

Sure, Trump makes no sense bigly regularly, but even a broken clock can be right twice a day.

Re Ukraine, think you have cause and effect backwards – hadn’t the prior administration shown the war can’t be won without starting WW3? Shouldn’t they have forestalled the bloodbath and destruction by telling Ukraine to remain neutral in the first place? The consequence, is now Putin is the only one who has the cards - something you won’t hear in the West, because stating the obvious would mean political and credibility freefall for most European leaders, making continued self-arm and delaying the inevitable preferable – this is the wage of hubris and telling porkies for decades, including calling a rational counterparty Hitler incarnate. Putin’s position was no different to Kennedy’s in the Cuban missile crisis, the only difference is Khrushchev stepped back while Biden didn’t.

What you consider propaganda, is actually timeless, universal truth in geopolitics - "If his state is small but he does not take a humble stance, if his power is slight but he does not fear the strong, if he is impolite and rude to his sizeable neighbours, if he is greedy and stubborn and inept at striking good relations, then his state is likely to be ruined." Han Feizi 280 BC (hf 15.1.19, pg202)

It is just realpolitik, the result of no higher authority above states, and has nothing to do with right or wrong, unlike what people come to expect in life, BUT which paradoxically makes it is a convenient, useful foil for Western leaders to whip up self-righteous, nationalistic sentiment (no matter how ironic and self-destructive) to shore up their own popularity, since their hold on power depends on it. If most people are still holding the conventional view on Ukraine after 3 years seeing what they can see, why should Joe Public be trusted in influencing political decisions?

 

[C R]

Sure, Trump makes no sense bigly regularly, but even a broken clock can be right twice a day.

Re Ukraine, think you have cause and effect backwards – hadn’t the prior administration shown the war can’t be won without starting WW3? Shouldn’t they have forestalled the bloodbath and destruction by telling Ukraine to remain neutral in the first place? The consequence, is now Putin is the only one who has the cards - something you won’t hear in the West, because stating the obvious would mean political and credibility freefall for most European leaders, making continued self-arm and delaying the inevitable preferable – this is the wage of hubris and telling porkies for decades, including calling a rational counterparty Hitler incarnate. Putin’s position was no different to Kennedy’s in the Cuban missile crisis, the only difference is Khrushchev stepped back while Biden didn’t.

What you consider propaganda, is actually timeless, universal truth in geopolitics - "If his state is small but he does not take a humble stance, if his power is slight but he does not fear the strong, if he is impolite and rude to his sizeable neighbours, if he is greedy and stubborn and inept at striking good relations, then his state is likely to be ruined." Han Feizi 280 BC (hf 15.1.19, pg202)

It is just realpolitik, the result of no higher authority above states, and has nothing to do with right or wrong, unlike what people come to expect in life, BUT which paradoxically makes it is a convenient, useful foil for Western leaders to whip up self-righteous, nationalistic sentiment (no matter how ironic and self-destructive) to shore up their own popularity, since their hold on power depends on it. If most people are still holding the conventional view on Ukraine after 3 years seeing what they can see, why should Joe Public be trusted in influencing political decisions?

 

[Pblakeney]

Sure, Trump makes no sense bigly regularly, but even a broken clock can be right twice a day.

Re Ukraine, think you have cause and effect backwards – hadn’t the prior administration shown the war can’t be won without starting WW3? Shouldn’t they have forestalled the bloodbath and destruction by telling Ukraine to remain neutral in the first place? The consequence, is now Putin is the only one who has the cards - something you won’t hear in the West, because stating the obvious would mean political and credibility freefall for most European leaders, making continued self-arm and delaying the inevitable preferable – this is the wage of hubris and telling porkies for decades, including calling a rational counterparty Hitler incarnate. Putin’s position was no different to Kennedy’s in the Cuban missile crisis, the only difference is Khrushchev stepped back while Biden didn’t.

What you consider propaganda, is actually timeless, universal truth in geopolitics - "If his state is small but he does not take a humble stance, if his power is slight but he does not fear the strong, if he is impolite and rude to his sizeable neighbours, if he is greedy and stubborn and inept at striking good relations, then his state is likely to be ruined." Han Feizi 280 BC (hf 15.1.19, pg202)

It is just realpolitik, the result of no higher authority above states, and has nothing to do with right or wrong, unlike what people come to expect in life, BUT which paradoxically makes it is a convenient, useful foil for Western leaders to whip up self-righteous, nationalistic sentiment (no matter how ironic and self-destructive) to shore up their own popularity, since their hold on power depends on it. If most people are still holding the conventional view on Ukraine after 3 years seeing what they can see, why should Joe Public be trusted in influencing political decisions?

In that case we may as well acknowledge that China will rule the world once it is finished watching us squabble amongst ourselves.