briantrumpet
Squire
Why are we not surprised? And I somehow think that part of those "dividends" might not be making it past personal bank accounts belonging to members of the Trump family and administration.
War with Russia
- Thread starter Milzy
- Start date
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Pblakeney
Veteran
Pinno718
Veteran
Ian H
Squire
How vulnerable is Volodymyr Zelensky? It’s not only winter that is closing in. The closest aide to Ukraine’s president was compelled to resign on Friday, as anti-corruption investigators continue to expose a scandal in the energy sector said to involve kickbacks worth $100m or more. The loss of Andriy Yermak as chief of staff is undoubtedly a painful blow. Mr Yermak had been in charge of handling diplomatic pressure from America and Russia—countries trying to impose a grim-sounding peace deal on weary Ukraine
Add fears that Russia, bit by bit, is gaining the upper hand on the battlefield. In a war of attrition Russia’s economic and manpower advantages are starting to tell. Its more recent advantage in drone firepower looks worrying, too. None of that means any sort of decisive military breakthrough is likely. It’s still not clear to me even whether all of Pokrovsk, a symbolically important town in the Donbas that Russia has been on the cusp of seizing for 14 months, has actually fallen, for example. But it adds to a sense of gloom.
[The Economist]
Add fears that Russia, bit by bit, is gaining the upper hand on the battlefield. In a war of attrition Russia’s economic and manpower advantages are starting to tell. Its more recent advantage in drone firepower looks worrying, too. None of that means any sort of decisive military breakthrough is likely. It’s still not clear to me even whether all of Pokrovsk, a symbolically important town in the Donbas that Russia has been on the cusp of seizing for 14 months, has actually fallen, for example. But it adds to a sense of gloom.
[The Economist]
Pinno718
Veteran
I will counter that a little bit.
Another commentator said a few things about this (Jason Jay Stuart).
Russia's conscripts may out number Ukrainian's but they are poorly trained and now, ill equipped. This balances out the Russian numerical advantage somewhat. Currently, Russia's meagre advances have little consequence - 'empty fields' and he believes that Ukraine is fine with conceding ground that hasn't an awful lot of strategic advantage. For the Ukrainian military, it's better to withdraw a little than waste valuable lives.
This war is not going to be won or lost on the ground offensive (Russian advances over 4 years have amounted to just 90km's), it will be won in the air and the financial consequences. Ukraine is wreaking havoc on Russia's ability to produce and export oil. The Russian Rubel is set to sink by 35% in the coming months. This spells even more inflation and hardship for ordinary Russians and yet another drop in oil revenue.
There seems to currently be a pessimism in the press amongst the backdrop of this current peace deal' on the table but the Economist of all presses should be putting the magnifying glass on Russia's now perilous economic situation. Also, the main stream press have hardly mentioned the failed practice launch of a missile that was actually broadcast on Russian TV! This is significant. The veneer of the super power with nukes owning the ultimate threat is splintering. Russia's air defences are so poor, Ukraine can strike the capital's power plants. Think about that.
Some other significant factors are glossed over/omitted/never mentioned. Such as:
Russia is facing the duality of revenue shortfalls and a lack of personnel. The significant sign up fees have been slashed. The compensation monies for injured or killed personnel (as part if the once very lucrative sign up incentives) is not being paid out and no longer offered during sign up. They are using prisoners as cannon fodder - basically, sign up or face further 'newly found charges' and an extension on their sentences by 5 to 10 years. It is estimated that 180,000 prisoners have signed up and most of them are dead or injured. 8 former prisoners are on the run having killed the transport driver seeing an opportunity to flee and not be sent into the meat grinder. Russia cannot sustain the personnel losses for that much longer and cannot attract personnel without proper financial incentive. No one wants to sign up knowing what's happening on the front line.
As of today, Russian personnel losses stand at 1173920*.
Putin is surrounded by his assembly of 'friends' who like Trump are not going to tell him that Russia is in deep sh*t. They also do not want an end to the conflict because the war economy is highly lucrative for those individuals. Neither Putin nor his mates care about soldiers nor Russians for that matter as long as Putin holds power and the cohort of buddies stay rich. This denial is a recipe for demise.
*I've done the calculation: that's 19 deaths per meter.
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Pinno718
Veteran
Pinno718
Veteran
Ooh, here's a little known fact: Up to 2014, Ukraine used to service and manage many Russian ICBM's.
(Inter continental ballistic missiles).
