War with Russia

[Rusty Nails]

Thankyou for responding in a civilised manner, unlike some.

Since when is winning an argument requiring ALL experts to concur, if you have an equally strong list of experts with their cogent counter arguments why don’t you produce it? The current director of CIA’s warning is in fact more potent that it happened in 2008 because US/NATO could hardly claim they had no opportunity since to avoid what came to pass.

Amongst many other actions that Russia found objectionable, in 2019, Ukraine decided to enshrine joining NATO in their constitution, followed last year by NATO reiterating the 2008 decision that Ukraine would become a member of the alliance, with Stoltenberg provocatively declaring that “Russia will not be able to veto Ukraine's accession to NATO”.

Consequently, Russia had only one decision to make – for which there is another recent expert assessment:

“The choice that we faced in Ukraine — and I'm using the past tense there intentionally — was whether Russia exercised a veto over NATO involvement in Ukraine on the negotiating table or on the battlefield,” said George Beebe, a former director of Russia analysis at the CIA and special adviser on Russia to former Vice President Dick Cheney. “And we elected to make sure that the veto was exercised on the battlefield, hoping that either Putin would stay his hand or that the military operation would fail.”

Yet, all the armchair experts here have decided that they are more expert than the real experts, like you by pointing to shallow counter arguments like Russian land isn’t threatened, as if the experts wouldn’t have thought of that in producing their conclusion.

For Russia, the reality is damned if they did, and damned if they didn’t – it is clear US/NATO were never going to stop poking. While it would have been best for Ukraine to remain neutral and to implement Minsk II, they fueled the flame instead. Was Russia supposed to wait, until US woke up one morning regretting their crusade for liberal democracy by regime changes around the world?

I notice you say my arguments are based on “ideology rather than facts”, while you painted Russia and China with the same brush, although they are vastly different animals except in hubristic Anglophone liberalism that puts them in the same sinking boat, which remarkably also says without any irony the sinking boat is a threat that justifies constant poking by megaphone diplomacy, encirclement and armed close-passes etc.! You also suggest the Chinese are generally less “respected” by their government – when the opposite is the case if you see through the demonisation and have bothered to understand the nuances and facts (Edelman, Harvard). Who is actually “insulting everyone else's intelligence” here?

FWIW, I have huge sympathy for the Ukrainian civilians caught up in this disaster. But for our children’s sake, important questions for consideration are what should/could have been done to avoid this mess, and now we are in this mess what are the major implications going forward, and further what are the lessons learnt to avoid the same happening elsewhere in the future? Agreed?

I know full well that this is not just a result of simply Russia bad/West good and that more could have been done to calm the situation in Ukraine over the past 15 years or more, especially the last eight, and not encouraging Ukraine's hopes of joining NATO. But there was no realistic likelihood of Ukraine joining NATO despite Ukraine's rhetoric, yet the decision was taken by one person to stop fighting this battle diplomatically and to invade Ukraine, destroying cities, killing thousands of civilians as well as soldiers. If the war is justifiable why is Putin not letting his own people know it is a war and blatantly lying about deliberately targeting civilians.

I support what you say in your final paragraph but note there is no condemnation of the country that decided to stop talking and start the violence and killings.

I also agree with much in that expert assessment you highlighted...especially this paragraph: "Recognizing this possibility does not excuse Moscow’s actions, which are heinous. Nor does it mean Russia’s insistence on regional hegemony is fair or ethical. And ultimately, it is no guarantee that Putin would not have invaded anyway. There are other factors — including, but not limited to, Putin's general anger over Kyiv drifting away from Russian influence and domination and his isolation as a decision-maker — that may have been sufficient to drive the invasion."

I have not said that Russia and China are in "sinking boats" quite the opposite with China especially, but stand by my view that the way they control their citizens via censorship, poor information access about the rest of the World, and do not give them any real say in their government or the ability to change it is worse than the democracies of much of the rest of the World, imperfect as they are.

I did not read that Harvard survey as showing people are respected by their government, rather that those people accept their relative lack of power but, because of the improved circumstances of the last 50 years and a lack of knowledge of the alternatives are satisfied with their government. I take the relative dissatisfaction of people with their governments in the West as a positive sign that they are aware there is not just one way of doing things.

 

[BoldonLad]

I know full well that this is not just a result of simply Russia bad/West good and that more could have been done to calm the situation in Ukraine over the past 15 years or more, especially the last eight, and not encouraging Ukraine's hopes of joining NATO. But there was no realistic likelihood of Ukraine joining NATO despite Ukraine's rhetoric, yet the decision was taken by one person to stop fighting this battle diplomatically and to invade Ukraine, destroying cities, killing thousands of civilians as well as soldiers. If the war is justifiable why is Putin not letting his own people know it is a war and blatantly lying about deliberately targeting civilians.

I support what you say in your final paragraph but note there is no condemnation of the country that decided to stop talking and start the violence and killings.

I have not said that Russia and China are in "sinking boats" quite the opposite with China especially, but stand by my view that the way they control their citizens via censorship, poor information access about the rest of the World, and do not give them any real say in their government or the ability to change it is worse than the democracies of much of the rest of the World, imperfect as they are.

I did not read that Harvard survey as showing people are respected by their government, rather that those people accept their relative lack of power but, because of the improved circumstances of the last 50 years and a lack of knowledge of the alternatives are satisfied with their government. I take the relative dissatisfaction of people with their governments in the West as a positive sign that they are aware there is not just one way of doing things.

It is some years ago now (1990's), but, I did spend some time working in former USSR, including Ukraine (in Kherson and Nikolaev), and, certainly, at that time, it was very apparent that most of the people I came in contact with had absolutely no idea of what life in "the West" was like. Having said that, I was in no way prepared for what life in Russia and Ukraine turned out to be like (at that time).

 

[Ian H]

From Private Eye

 

[winjim]

Canada marking Russia's homework. I'm not sure, in this age of social media, whether this is useful or a bit childish.


View: https://twitter.com/CanadaUN/status/1504464863510335488?t=6ELqYSUZek07y3NIhO1cAA&s=19

 

[BoldonLad]

Cannot quite make my mind up if the Russian journalist (Marina Ovsyannikova) is very brave, or, very foolhardy?

 

[BoldonLad]

Canada marking Russia's homework. I'm not sure, in this age of social media, whether this is useful or a bit childish.


View: https://twitter.com/CanadaUN/status/1504464863510335488?t=6ELqYSUZek07y3NIhO1cAA&s=19

Will anyone in Russia see it?, I thought Twitter was blocked in Russia.

 

[Rusty Nails]

Cannot quite make my mind up if the Russian journalist (Marina Ovsyannikova) is very brave, or, very foolhardy?

It is possible to be both. Listening to interviews with her, the first is a given.

 

[dutchguylivingintheuk]

China meeting with Russia like that was a big deal, regardless of when it happened.

I'm with @Rusty Nails on this - China are playing their cards close to their chest here.

I don't agree because holding their cards to their chest is what they where doing already when they abstained from voting in the UN. This is a step further a carefull one because done by the embassy so the lower levels first but surely it is one in my view.

That meeting might have been big but also most likely well planned and therefore the topics also long planned, so i consider the suggestion they extensively discussed Ukraine not very sensible, because then they would abstain in the UN but support Russia.

Amongst many other actions that Russia found objectionable, in 2019, Ukraine decided to enshrine joining NATO in their constitution, followed last year by NATO reiterating the 2008 decision that Ukraine would become a member of the alliance, with Stoltenberg provocatively declaring that “Russia will not be able to veto Ukraine's accession to NATO”.

I think the 2014 us/EU supported ousting of the Russian puppet government was more likely the start of the issue, Ukraine's EU association treaty status wouldn't have helped much either.

Consequently, Russia had only one decision to make – for which there is another recent expert assessment:

Surely it was preventable, just as many terrorist attacks are by making law more restrictive than China to prevent insulting some groups/religions/persons and maybe even some inlaws. However the point is that Russia does not see Ukraine as an independent country same as they did not see Georgia as an indepentent country and if we don't defend Ukraine they will not see any other country as a country if it doesn't swing there way.

The decision the join the EU or Nato or the boyscouts should be between the Ukraine's and Eu/Nato, not Russia's to try and force it to not happen. Maybe the fact that Russia's version of the Nato/EU mainly attracted crazy dictators so far has a role in it. It does kind of looks like a failure compared to Nato/eu

“The choice that we faced in Ukraine — and I'm using the past tense there intentionally — was whether Russia exercised a veto over NATO involvement in Ukraine on the negotiating table or on the battlefield,” said George Beebe, a former director of Russia analysis at the CIA and special adviser on Russia to former Vice President Dick Cheney. “And we elected to make sure that the veto was exercised on the battlefield, hoping that either Putin would stay his hand or that the military operation would fail.”

Yes, but it is not their choice to make over an independent country. So their shouldn't be an Russia veto.

Yet, all the armchair experts here have decided that they are more expert than the real experts, like you by pointing to shallow counter arguments like Russian land isn’t threatened, as if the experts wouldn’t have thought of that in producing their conclusion.

It might be understandable Russia feel threatened the response is not acceptable, it's not because a country feels they are threatened they should be allowed to act this way.

For Russia, the reality is damned if they did, and damned if they didn’t – it is clear US/NATO were never going to stop poking. While it would have been best for Ukraine to remain neutral and to implement Minsk II, they fueled the flame instead. Was Russia supposed to wait, until US woke up one morning regretting their crusade for liberal democracy by regime changes around the world?

Nope Russia lost control after the Maidam revolution/coup in 2014 and they Gambled that a similar kind of coup with a few paratroopers would have see them seize control.
They have the puppet goverment lined up already.

I notice you say my arguments are based on “ideology rather than facts”, while you painted Russia and China with the same brush, although they are vastly different animals except in hubristic Anglophone liberalism that puts them in the same sinking boat, which remarkably also says without any irony the sinking boat is a threat that justifies constant poking by megaphone diplomacy, encirclement and armed close-passes etc.! You also suggest the Chinese are generally less “respected” by their government – when the opposite is the case if you see through the demonisation and have bothered to understand the nuances and facts (Edelman, Harvard). Who is actually “insulting everyone else's intelligence” here?

i'm not going to mix to much in a discussion you have with a other forum member, but ''goverment satisfaction'' when the government oppresses controls and managed what you can and cannot think? i bet North Korea has high rankings too does that make them any more reliable?

FWIW, I have huge sympathy for the Ukrainian civilians caught up in this disaster. But for our children’s sake, important questions for consideration are what should/could have been done to avoid this mess, and now we are in this mess what are the major implications going forward, and further what are the lessons learnt to avoid the same happening elsewhere in the future? Agreed?

Lessons learned? If a big country that randomly invaded a neighbor country roughly every 10 years opposes a military alliance membership, the independent country involved should shut up and take it? Where is there independent choice? Where is their freedom?

I always believed and believe in standing up to bullies, this is exactly the same thing on a larger scale. I think nato should step up their marks and show Russia where the Red line is, the one they crossed on 24th Feb.



on a other note i came across this

View: https://twitter.com/catalintenita/status/1504346892251115524

That really is a great idea something to hold on for children who have been to so much.

 

[AndyRM]

Of course it was well planned.

i like the toy bridge, it's very cute.

 

[mjr]

It is some years ago now (1990's), but, I did spend some time working in former USSR, including Ukraine (in Kherson and Nikolaev),

I note you use the Russian name instead of the Ukrainian Mykolaiv.

 

[BoldonLad]

I note you use the Russian name instead of the Ukrainian Mykolaiv.

That is what it was called, when I was there in the 1990’s, so, I used that name. Simples.

 

[dutchguylivingintheuk]

Translated eye/in person account on how it is like in besieged Mariupol(quite detailed so 'consider this a 'trigger warning)

View: https://twitter.com/rshereme/status/1504579756221558792

 

[winjim]

Will anyone in Russia see it?, I thought Twitter was blocked in Russia.

The Russian mission to the UN appears to have a twitter account. Anyway, I don't know who the target audience is so I can't tell if it's good messaging or a bit silly. It's certainly attention grabbing with the potential for going viral, as evidenced by my posting it.

 

[dutchguylivingintheuk]

In case anyone was wondering how they get a whole stadium full to cheer Mr. Putin and his ''special operation'' the answer is given by a bbc something (you know the thing with lots of titles like for example Chief-editor-in-charge-of-clean-toilet-seats-but-not-the-dirty-ones) or his name is Will Vernon apparently

View: https://twitter.com/BBCWillVernon/status/1504838568514052098

 

[Mugshot]

It will come as no surprise to learn that...


View: https://twitter.com/HarryYorke1/status/1505247361613844483?s=20&t=mXda242QtGIx8xdlKwbaAQ