War with Russia

[Psamathe]

Maybe not foremost in their minds but Ukraine's asking for "Security Guarantees" shows a lot more trust in some other countries, particularly given their past experience of such "Guarantees" eg their experience of the "Budapest Memorandum" (1994) where Russia, UK, and the US signed a memorandum to provide Ukraine with security assurances including recognising and not using force (or threat of force) against Ukraine's independence and sovereignty in their existing borders. wonder how they feel about those assurances now?

Ian

 

[RecordAceFromNew]

Reports now appearing that Trump has talked to Putin and US and Russia to start peace talks to end the Ukraine War, without Ukraine involvement it seems.

Surely this makes a whole lot more sense than the multiple "peace conferences" held in Europe without inviting the Russian?

Regarding Europe also as a rule taker, firstly it is consistent with the fact that they (with rare exception such as Hungary, perhaps Ireland) have convinced the whole world that they are mere vassals having successfully outsourced their foreign policy, and additionally as Mearsheimer pointed out, there are only 3 superpowers on earth - Russia is the distant 3rd.

Maybe not foremost in their minds but Ukraine's asking for "Security Guarantees" shows a lot more trust in some other countries, particularly given their past experience of such "Guarantees" eg their experience of the "Budapest Memorandum" (1994) where Russia, UK, and the US signed a memorandum to provide Ukraine with security assurances including recognising and not using force (or threat of force) against Ukraine's independence and sovereignty in their existing borders. wonder how they feel about those assurances now?

Ian

So some clown in Ukraine still wants security guarantee from Team Genocide, which got them in this mess in the first place?

What we learn from history, is...

 

[C R]

Surely this makes a whole lot more sense than the multiple "peace conferences" held in Europe without inviting the Russian?

Regarding Europe also as a rule taker, firstly it is consistent with the fact that they (with rare exception such as Hungary, perhaps Ireland) have convinced the whole world that they are mere vassals having successfully outsourced their foreign policy, and additionally as Mearsheimer pointed out, there are only 3 superpowers on earth - Russia is the distant 3rd.



So some clown in Ukraine still wants security guarantee from Team Genocide, which got them in this mess in the first place?

What we learn from history, is...

Eh?

 

[presta]

Was anyone other than me unaware that Article 5 doesn't require anyone to actually do anything, other than huff and blow and agree that an attack on one is an attack on all?
https://archive.is/287LE

 

[Psamathe]

Was anyone other than me unaware that Article 5 doesn't require anyone to actually do anything, other than huff and blow and agree that an attack on one is an attack on all?
https://archive.is/287LE

I don't have the legal expetise to assess interpretations and possible "other factors" but we do need to remember recent history (last few weeks) where Trump will happily tear up international agreements without warning when it suits him eg Free Trade Agreement with Canada just torn-up/ignored without warning when he wants to apply tariffs. Similarly international laws are irrelevant to his wishes eg ethnically cleanse Gaza.

So whatever the legal obligations under Article 5 I suspect Trump's response would depend on who has flattered him the most and who hadn't (and I probably not being cynical in suggesting that) and have nothing to do with legally binding agreements.

Ian

 

[All uphill]

I don't have the legal expetise to assess interpretations and possible "other factors" but we do need to remember recent history (last few weeks) where Trump will happily tear up international agreements without warning when it suits him eg Free Trade Agreement with Canada just torn-up/ignored without warning when he wants to apply tariffs. Similarly international laws are irrelevant to his wishes eg ethnically cleanse Gaza.

So whatever the legal obligations under Article 5 I suspect Trump's response would depend on who has flattered him the most and who hadn't (and I probably not being cynical in suggesting that) and have nothing to do with legally binding agreements.

Ian

And let's not forget the new doctrine of Presidential Infallibility as defined by the Supreme Court. There can be no legal repercussions on Trump for all of this.

 

[Psamathe]

And let's not forget the new doctrine of Presidential Infallibility as defined by the Supreme Court. There can be no legal repercussions on Trump for all of this.

Although one interesting long shot is that ICC does have jurisdiction over Gaza so ethnic cleansing would be under ICC jurisdiction and somebody instigating it might find themselves with an arrest warrant which would limit overseas countries Trump could travel to/through. And given his determination to alienate most other world leaders and countries possibly not a lot of sympathy to the point where in 4 years time they'd be saying "stay away".

Maybe not high probability but maybe a possibility?

Ian

 

[Rusty Nails]

Although one interesting long shot is that ICC does have jurisdiction over Gaza so ethnic cleansing would be under ICC jurisdiction and somebody instigating it might find themselves with an arrest warrant which would limit overseas countries Trump could travel to/through. And given his determination to alienate most other world leaders and countries possibly not a lot of sympathy to the point where in 4 years time they'd be saying "stay away".

Maybe not high probability but maybe a possibility?

Ian

About the same chance as Putin getting arrested over war crimes in Ukraine.

Not a cat-in-hell's chance.

 

[Psamathe]

About the same chance as Putin getting arrested over war crimes in Ukraine.

Not a cat-in-hell's chance.

I agree I'm wishful thinking but, whilst he'd probably never be arrested, with a warrant he'd not be able to visit any country who is a member of the ICC and that's a fair number of Trump golf courses he'd not be able to play at.

Ian

 

[Rusty Nails]

I agree I'm wishful thinking but, whilst he'd probably never be arrested, with a warrant he'd not be able to visit any country who is a member of the ICC and that's a fair number of Trump golf courses he'd not be able to play at.

Ian

I seriously doubt that, while he's President, any member country of ICC will do anything about it.

For example, in what parallel world can you seriously see Starmer waiting for him at the steps of Air Force One with a pair of handcuffs at the ready?

 

[Psamathe]

I seriously doubt that, while he's President, any member country of ICC will do anything about it.

For example, in what parallel world can you seriously see Starmer waiting for him at the steps of Air Force One with a pair of handcuffs at the ready?

I agree and whilst not for me to have a view about what the Palestinians should do beyond that it should be their choice. I suppose my imaginings stem from reports today about how Netanyahu is already working on Trump's plan and I'm wondering who will stop them and ask the Palestinians and follow their wishes.

Trump seems to think he's President of the world. Not only thinking he can just take and own Gaza but also now carving up Ukraine without even discussing with the Ukrainians. And Trump now posting “Celui qui sauve sa patrie ne viole aucune loi,” translated as: “who saves his country violates no law” (generally attributed to Napoleon).

Ian

 

[Rusty Nails]

I agree and whilst not for me to have a view about what the Palestinians should do beyond that it should be their choice. I suppose my imaginings stem from reports today about how Netanyahu is already working on Trump's plan and I'm wondering who will stop them and ask the Palestinians and follow their wishes.

Trump seems to think he's President of the world. Not only thinking he can just take and own Gaza but also now carving up Ukraine without even discussing with the Ukrainians. And Trump now posting “Celui qui sauve sa patrie ne viole aucune loi,” translated as: “who saves his country violates no law” (generally attributed to Napoleon).

Ian

I am very worried about Trump's ambitions and actions, and his election has helped make this is a very dangerous time for the World. Tbh I am not sure that any country can actually do much to resolve it due to the way most European, and many other, countries have been prepared to just rely on the military strength of the US rather than continue to grow and strengthen their own. Now the chickens are coming home to roost. The one aim of Trump I can agree with is that Western nations and Europe in particular need to significantly increase their contributions to NATO.

No one will stop them in Gaza and the Lebanon, certainly not Iran. There will be continued conflict in that area if Trump's insane ideas about the Gaza Riviera actually take place.

 

[HMS_Dave]

I am very worried about Trump's ambitions and actions, and his election has helped make this is a very dangerous time for the World. Tbh I am not sure that any country can actually do much to resolve it due to the way most European, and many other, countries have been prepared to just rely on the military strength of the US rather than continue to grow and strengthen their own. Now the chickens are coming home to roost. The one aim of Trump I can agree with is that Western nations and Europe in particular need to significantly increase their contributions to NATO.

No one will stop them in Gaza and the Lebanon, certainly not Iran. There will be continued conflict in that area if Trump's insane ideas about the Gaza Riviera actually take place.

I agree with everything there and there is little doubt that NATO members, including the UK will increase their defence budgets as a direct result. Whether that makes Europe a more capable fighting force well no, i don't believe it will. Being able to fight a war for 4 weeks rather than 3 weeks is pretty much where the UK and most NATO members are. It's all just theatre for the average American to consume.

 

[Rusty Nails]

I agree with everything there and there is little doubt that NATO members, including the UK will increase their defence budgets as a direct result. Whether that makes Europe a more capable fighting force well no, i don't believe it will. Being able to fight a war for 4 weeks rather than 3 weeks is pretty much where the UK and most NATO members are. It's all just theatre for the average American to consume.

I agree that it will not improve things in the short term but at least it would be a move in the right direction rather than just continuing to rely on the US...which is a huge gamble under Trump.

 

[Psamathe]

Thinking about peace keeping force from Europe with security guarantees by the US ... to me sounds very like Article 5 ie were Russia to attack the European (peace keeping) forces in Ukraine then US would enter defending European troops and Ukraine.

And given how US has already given Putin a guarantee that Ukraine won't ever join NATO.

And, given how Government officials from Baltic states interviewed on TV recently asked if they have confidence US would come to their aid (as part of NATO) if they were attacked they all "not really". So if US/Trump did provide the security gurantees undeerwriting European peackeepers, does anybody think he'd actually honour those undertakings or just tear them up the moment he was called on?

Ian