War with Russia

[Pblakeney]

Russia might be all in favour of such "Security Guarantees" - they turn up and the NATO forces run away without even firing any guns or anything. PR for Putin would be brilliant. Lots og Russian domestic TV showing NATO troops running away as soon as Russian forces arrive. Putin couldn't ask for more.

True dat. 😢
Although there is a difference between UN and NATO. Has NATO been tested?

 

[craigwend]

https://news.sky.com/story/submit-y...clarke-13414991?postid=10046729#liveblog-body

 

[Bazzer]

Another $40m missile launcher goes boom thanks to Ukraine forces.

 

[RecordAceFromNew]

Europe will have to step up now and provide more assistance to Ukraine.

Russia is not the mighty world power Trump (and some) seem to assume. It might have land area but its economy eg ranks 45th is GDP PPP behind eg Ireland, Denmark, Germany, Belgium, Austria, etc. (all as individual countries). even on nominal GDP Russia is only 11th, under countries like UK, France, Italy, Canada, Germany, etc. (as individual countries). (World Bank figures).

These recent, most liked, comments unfortunately are symptomatic of this thread - Russia's GDP PPP smaller than that teeny-weeny neighbour of ours called Ireland?

Not so long ago, the Yanks thought they could turn ruble into rubble, at little cost, certainly no human cost, while weakening and binding Europe (against China perhaps) in the bargain. What is not to like?

It turned out their gold-plated military industrial complex was only built for "insurgents" on mopeds. Worse, they failed to heed why they couldn't win even against those poor buggers. Some less ideological Yanks have, however, been waking up to their own prescient prediction in 1972:

"I think in 20 years your successor, if he’s as wise as you, will wind up leaning towards the Russians against the Chinese. For the next 15 years we have to lean towards the Chinese against the Russians. We have to play this balance of power game totally unemotionally. Right now, we need the Chinese to correct the Russians and to discipline the Russians."

Alas, not only did the Yanks miss that boat in 1992, when US GDP PPP was 3.5X China's, Biden sank said boat in 2022. Meanwhile Chinese GDP PPP has grown to 1.33X that of the US, with Russia in 4th place behind India. The clincher, is that China is now the world's sole industrial superpower, and anyone with half a brain could figure out if you were them, would you ever let Russia lose, when Congress in rare bipartisan unity never stop proclaiming loudly that their wet dream is to "contain" China's rise?

It would appear even a certified moron like Trump has understood this. The weird thing, is not people here.

Nearly all Europeans went along and are still going along happily with this misadventure and economic self-harm, while thumping their chests about freedom, sovereignty, rules of law etc. - despite Western moral compass has long sailed with their part in murderous misadventures against brown people right now as has been for centuries - don't shirk saying it is not you only your government if you want to stay on the liberal democracy moral high horse. Fact is geopolitics is a cruel, immoral business as Kissinger alluded to. What is truly weird though, is people continue to think: a) Ukraine could magically still win without US on side when unable before, and b) the Russians want to occupy a vehemently hostile Western Ukraine (as opposed to the Russia-leaning East previously at civil war with Kyiv) and continue marching Westward despite their fiasco in Afghanistan? It is not as if they are short of land or resource, is it? How gullible can people get?

The first president of the UN General Assembly, an European, quipped in 1957 that there are only 2 kinds of countries in Europe - small countries, and those that don't yet realise they are small countries. Many Brits appear to remain in the latter camp. Furthermore, isn't it obvious that increased hardship caused by US' sycophants and warmongers like VdL and our elected leaders has helped giving wings to populist nationalists like Farage, Le Pen, Weidel etc.? Creatures just like Trump. Yet you all think Europe will somehow magically unite, dig deep into their pockets, to support Ukraine bigly? Seriously?

If anybody thinks Ukraine is going to emerge victorious rather than as a rump, diminished, failed state courtesy of their elected clown's decisions, have some bottle and say so - we can come back and review at leisure. If you are unwilling and yet angry with what I say, contemplate whether it is because I am telling porkies (how so?), or because you have been overfeeding on your political leaders' lies.

 

[Psamathe]

These recent, most liked, comments unfortunately are symptomatic of this thread - Russia's GDP PPP smaller than that teeny-weeny neighbour of ours called Ireland?

And 3 other countries.

 

[C R]

These recent, most liked, comments unfortunately are symptomatic of this thread - Russia's GDP PPP smaller than that teeny-weeny neighbour of ours called Ireland?

Not so long ago, the Yanks thought they could turn ruble into rubble, at little cost, certainly no human cost, while weakening and binding Europe (against China perhaps) in the bargain. What is not to like?

It turned out their gold-plated military industrial complex was only built for "insurgents" on mopeds. Worse, they failed to heed why they couldn't win even against those poor buggers. Some less ideological Yanks have, however, been waking up to their own prescient prediction in 1972:

"I think in 20 years your successor, if he’s as wise as you, will wind up leaning towards the Russians against the Chinese. For the next 15 years we have to lean towards the Chinese against the Russians. We have to play this balance of power game totally unemotionally. Right now, we need the Chinese to correct the Russians and to discipline the Russians."

Alas, not only did the Yanks miss that boat in 1992, when US GDP PPP was 3.5X China's, Biden sank said boat in 2022. Meanwhile Chinese GDP PPP has grown to 1.33X that of the US, with Russia in 4th place behind India. The clincher, is that China is now the world's sole industrial superpower, and anyone with half a brain could figure out if you were them, would you ever let Russia lose, when Congress in rare bipartisan unity never stop proclaiming loudly that their wet dream is to "contain" China's rise?

It would appear even a certified moron like Trump has understood this. The weird thing, is not people here.

Nearly all Europeans went along and are still going along happily with this misadventure and economic self-harm, while thumping their chests about freedom, sovereignty, rules of law etc. - despite Western moral compass has long sailed with their part in murderous misadventures against brown people right now as has been for centuries - don't shirk saying it is not you only your government if you want to stay on the liberal democracy moral high horse. Fact is geopolitics is a cruel, immoral business as Kissinger alluded to. What is truly weird though, is people continue to think: a) Ukraine could magically still win without US on side when unable before, and b) the Russians want to occupy a vehemently hostile Western Ukraine (as opposed to the Russia-leaning East previously at civil war with Kyiv) and continue marching Westward despite their fiasco in Afghanistan? It is not as if they are short of land or resource, is it? How gullible can people get?

The first president of the UN General Assembly, an European, quipped in 1957 that there are only 2 kinds of countries in Europe - small countries, and those that don't yet realise they are small countries. Many Brits appear to remain in the latter camp. Furthermore, isn't it obvious that increased hardship caused by US' sycophants and warmongers like VdL and our elected leaders has helped giving wings to populist nationalists like Farage, Le Pen, Weidel etc.? Creatures just like Trump. Yet you all think Europe will somehow magically unite, dig deep into their pockets, to support Ukraine bigly? Seriously?

If anybody thinks Ukraine is going to emerge victorious rather than as a rump, diminished, failed state courtesy of their elected clown's decisions, have some bottle and say so - we can come back and review at leisure. If you are unwilling and yet angry with what I say, contemplate whether it is because I am telling porkies (how so?), or because you have been overfeeding on your political leaders' lies.

View attachment 9607

Black is white, white is black.

 

[Psamathe]

If anybody thinks Ukraine is going to emerge victorious rather than as a rump, diminished, failed state courtesy of their elected clown's decisions, have some bottle and say so - we can come back and review at leisure. If you are unwilling and yet angry with what I say, contemplate whether it is because I am telling porkies (how so?), or because you have been overfeeding on your political leaders' lies

I think it very difficult to predict how Ukraine will manage and what any outcome might be.

So far aid/weapons from the west have been restricted to levels to stop them losing (mainly 'cos of US). Initially everybody thought that Russia would have taken all Ukraine as fast as their tanks could go but Ukraine sort of surprised everybody.

By all accounts Russia's economy is not sustainable and will start to restrict their operations. Europe may decide to adequately arm Ukraine (may not). Russia might find some way to bypass its economic constraints (eg Trump gets his way and ditches Ukraine in favour of Russia), may not.

Hence impossible to predict beyond that if Europe does not properly support Ukraine that it will probably lose.

 

[Pinno718]

Another $40m missile launcher goes boom thanks to Ukraine forces.

F*cking ace.

 

[Pinno718]

These recent, most liked, comments unfortunately are symptomatic of this thread - Russia's GDP PPP smaller than that teeny-weeny neighbour of ours called Ireland?

Not so long ago, the Yanks thought they could turn ruble into rubble, at little cost, certainly no human cost, while weakening and binding Europe (against China perhaps) in the bargain. What is not to like?

It turned out their gold-plated military industrial complex was only built for "insurgents" on mopeds. Worse, they failed to heed why they couldn't win even against those poor buggers. Some less ideological Yanks have, however, been waking up to their own prescient prediction in 1972:

"I think in 20 years your successor, if he’s as wise as you, will wind up leaning towards the Russians against the Chinese. For the next 15 years we have to lean towards the Chinese against the Russians. We have to play this balance of power game totally unemotionally. Right now, we need the Chinese to correct the Russians and to discipline the Russians."

Alas, not only did the Yanks miss that boat in 1992, when US GDP PPP was 3.5X China's, Biden sank said boat in 2022. Meanwhile Chinese GDP PPP has grown to 1.33X that of the US, with Russia in 4th place behind India. The clincher, is that China is now the world's sole industrial superpower, and anyone with half a brain could figure out if you were them, would you ever let Russia lose, when Congress in rare bipartisan unity never stop proclaiming loudly that their wet dream is to "contain" China's rise?

It would appear even a certified moron like Trump has understood this. The weird thing, is not people here.

Nearly all Europeans went along and are still going along happily with this misadventure and economic self-harm, while thumping their chests about freedom, sovereignty, rules of law etc. - despite Western moral compass has long sailed with their part in murderous misadventures against brown people right now as has been for centuries - don't shirk saying it is not you only your government if you want to stay on the liberal democracy moral high horse. Fact is geopolitics is a cruel, immoral business as Kissinger alluded to. What is truly weird though, is people continue to think: a) Ukraine could magically still win without US on side when unable before, and b) the Russians want to occupy a vehemently hostile Western Ukraine (as opposed to the Russia-leaning East previously at civil war with Kyiv) and continue marching Westward despite their fiasco in Afghanistan? It is not as if they are short of land or resource, is it? How gullible can people get?

The first president of the UN General Assembly, an European, quipped in 1957 that there are only 2 kinds of countries in Europe - small countries, and those that don't yet realise they are small countries. Many Brits appear to remain in the latter camp. Furthermore, isn't it obvious that increased hardship caused by US' sycophants and warmongers like VdL and our elected leaders has helped giving wings to populist nationalists like Farage, Le Pen, Weidel etc.? Creatures just like Trump. Yet you all think Europe will somehow magically unite, dig deep into their pockets, to support Ukraine bigly? Seriously?

If anybody thinks Ukraine is going to emerge victorious rather than as a rump, diminished, failed state courtesy of their elected clown's decisions, have some bottle and say so - we can come back and review at leisure. If you are unwilling and yet angry with what I say, contemplate whether it is because I am telling porkies (how so?), or because you have been overfeeding on your political leaders' lies.

View attachment 9607

Can't say I agree with much of your rather bleak view.
Russia is printing Rubles like never before. This may lead to rampant inflation.
Russia is struggling to pay inflated wages and compensation to injured soldiers, never mind recruit.
They have failed to make much progress into Ukraine.
They have suffered well over 1m in losses and injury.
They have lost a number of high ranking military personnel.
You have not mentioned internal unrest within the Kremlin or the drop in productivity nor the contraction of the economy. Putin recently arrested on of his former allies - an oligarch simply to shut him up and seize his money. They are also seizing assets, Reuters:

https://www.reuters.com/world/europ...assets-over-three-years-kommersant-2025-07-09

Russia has suffered much destruction of oil and gas processing facilities, strategic military installations and Ukrainian forces has proved that Russian defences are much weaker than anyone thought - the attack on very expensive military aircraft - high altitude bombers (not even stored inside) was proof of that.
To say that Russia is still a superpower is stretching the facts.

Trump is not intelligent enough to make such a realisation, Putin has kompromat on Trump and that's all. Trump also admires dictators. A lot of what he's doing in the US mirrors other dictatorships.

You have discounted the countries who have direct and indirect vested interest in supporting Ukraine: directly - Finland, Sweden, Poland, Estonia, Norway etc and indirectly the rest of the EU. EU funding to Ukraine and the long term pledges of funding is not insignificant

https://www.eeas.europa.eu/delegati...ica/eu-assistance-ukraine-us-dollars_en?s=253

Russia can only serve as a vessel for China to a degree. If the vessel becomes a lame duck, there's no point supporting the lame duck. If Russia cannot conduct the war, it doesn't matter how much foreign support it gets. Military installations cannot be rebuilt overnight. How long can Russia sustain repeated damage to essential infrastructure seen as Ukrainian forces seem to have no geographical limits?
Ukrainian drones hit Russian vessels in the once thought of safe Caspian sea.
North Korean troops have been slaughtered and there are/were huge communication issues which has meant that the N Korean soldiers are just simply sent into the 'meat grinder'. Russia will run out of fighting personnel and any mercenary forces do not have the motivation or reason to fight like dogs.
Russia is running out of military hardware including vehicles where troops have been using bicycles and motorbikes and equipment and tanks have been pulled out of museums to fight the war. 1950's tanks that are decrepit and not fit for modern warfare. Russia's military is short on basic parts that Ukraine used to supply. Ironic.

I personally think Russia is on the brink of economic collapse - there are multiple forces at play: the loss of troops, the loss of essential military structure, weaponry and hardware, the humiliating failed promise of re-occupying Ukraine (Putin has lost faith and face) which must have internal implication, the contracting economy, the constant need for foreign support both financially and militarily and finally; sanctions.
I would say that there is far more pressure on Russia than there is on Ukraine.
That 'brink' according to Pundits* is sometime in late summer 2026.

*Times Radio, Jason Jay Stuart, The Daily Beast, Financial Times.

https://www.ft.com/content/438e6f4b-dda6-4c93-bc8d-0c72aa9f6416