War with Russia

[Pinno718]

How long can Russia sustain it's efforts ^?

Crime epidemic in Crimea as fuel is being stolen in the backdrop of military targets being hit constantly.

I wonder if the Ukrainians haven't taken out the Kerch bridge because it's more useful for them in the long run because I think they have the capability given their successful long range strikes.

 

[the snail]

...

I wonder if the Ukrainians haven't taken out the Kerch bridge because it's more useful for them in the long run because I think they have the capability given their successful long range strikes.

I doubt it, they've made multiple attempts now,they would destroy it immediately if they could, it's no use to them, just a security threat

 

[Rusty Nails]

Following this thread could give the impression that Ukraine is winning the war.

As yet they are not, and are seemingly unable to get back any more of the area that Russia has controlled for a long time.

Once that starts happening I will get a bit more optimistic about the outcome.

 

[briantrumpet]

Following this thread could give the impression that Ukraine is winning the war.

As yet they are not, and are seemingly unable to get back any more of the area that Russia has controlled for a long time.

Once that starts happening I will get a bit more optimistic about the outcome.

Yeah, changes in territory held seem to be pretty tiny in the overall scheme of things, though just 'holding on' against Vlad isn't too shoddy (quite part from the internal damage they are doing to crucial stuff), especially if they can turn the tide on what Ukraine can get hold of and is allowed to use.

 

[Rusty Nails]

Yeah, changes in territory held seem to be pretty tiny in the overall scheme of things, though just 'holding on' against Vlad isn't too shoddy (quite part from the internal damage they are doing to crucial stuff), especially if they can turn the tide on what Ukraine can get hold of and is allowed to use.

Ukraine has done very well so far against huge odds and with the weapons available to it. It will need a big change in the weapons made available if it is to succeed further.
There have been stories from the start about Russia bankrupting itself and, initially, Putin having a serious illness. I prefer to see actual results than optimistic forecasts/rumours.

 

[Pinno718]

Following this thread could give the impression that Ukraine is winning the war.

As yet they are not, and are seemingly unable to get back any more of the area that Russia has controlled for a long time.

Once that starts happening I will get a bit more optimistic about the outcome.

I think it's a bit like the WW1 trenches in that there is a sort of stalemate/impasse.
The WW1 came to an end due to lack of resources compounded by the naval blockade.
In the same vein, it won't end on the eastern front. It will end due to other factors.

 

[Rusty Nails]

I think it's a bit like the WW1 trenches in that there is a sort of stalemate/impasse.
The WW1 came to an end due to lack of resources compounded by the naval blockade.
In the same vein, it won't end on the eastern front. It will end due to other factors.

But will it end with Russia still in charge of much of east and coastal Ukraine?

 

[Pinno718]

But will it end with Russia still in charge of much of east and coastal Ukraine?

Those oil refineries just keep getting popped...

 

[briantrumpet]

I think it's a bit like the WW1 trenches in that there is a sort of stalemate/impasse.
The WW1 came to an end due to lack of resources compounded by the naval blockade.
In the same vein, it won't end on the eastern front. It will end due to other factors.

I'd agree with this (with my enormous battleground knowledge gleaned from X, Bluesky and NCAP).

 

[BoldonLad]

I think it's a bit like the WW1 trenches in that there is a sort of stalemate/impasse.
The WW1 came to an end due to lack of resources compounded by the naval blockade.
In the same vein, it won't end on the eastern front. It will end due to other factors.

WW1 was even before my time, but, wasn't the "lack of resources" on the side of the aggressor (Germany).

It does not seem likely to me that Russia is going to suffer crippling lack of resources, unless sanctions can be made much more effective, and /or more universally applied.

 

[Pinno718]

WW1 was even before my time, but, wasn't the "lack of resources" on the side of the aggressor (Germany).

It does not seem likely to me that Russia is going to suffer crippling lack of resources, unless sanctions can be made much more effective, and /or more universally applied.

Firstly:

The Blockade of Germany, or the Blockade of Europe, occurred from 1914 to 1919. The prolonged naval blockade was conducted by the Allies during and after World War I[1] in an effort to restrict the maritime supply of goods to the Central Powers, which included Germany, Austria-Hungary, and the Ottoman Empire. The blockade is considered one of the key elements in the eventual Allied victory in the war. The restricted supply of strategic materials such as metal ores and oil had a detrimental effect on the Central Powers' war effort, despite ingenious efforts to find other sources or substitutes.

However, through a sequence of events, the Allies declared foodstuffs contraband and it is this aspect of the blockade that remains most controversial. In December 1918, the German Board of Public Health claimed that 763,000 German civilians had already died from starvation and disease caused by the blockade.[2][3] An academic study done in 1928 put the death toll at 424,00.

Secondly: I (politely) disagree with that statement as Russia's oil refineries, the key money generators, keep getting hit. It's difficult to judge the efficacy of the sanctions but they surely have to be an added factor in the pressure cooker?

 

[Bazzer]

It does not seem likely to me that Russia is going to suffer crippling lack of resources, unless sanctions can be made much more effective, and /or more universally applied.

Whilst crude oil exports have increased* as a result of Ukrainian attacks on refining capacity within Russia, thus allowing some ruble flow to Putin, that oil is being sold in a buyer's market.
The really profitable sales of refined products of gasoline and diesel appears to have been curtailed by Ukraine. Indeed, reports suggest there are shortages of refined products in several areas, including Crimea where rationing has been imposed.
*No doubt this has been noted by Ukraine and I shouldn't be surprised if there are plans afoot to correct the situation.

 

[briantrumpet]

Maybe hopium, but...

 

[Ian H]

The Cardboard Revolution.
https://www.politico.eu/article/gen-z-protests-volodymyr-zelenskyy-bill-ukraine-war-politics/

 

[Pinno718]

Maybe hopium, but...

I gave up on that twit.
Bang, bang, bang strung out for 14 minutes with no real conclusion and repetitive scenes which are re-cycled ad nauseum to generate YT hits and earn money.
Similar to Jason Stuart who almost never references his claims.