The Guardian is reporting that several Tory MPs believe there are now 54 letters of no confidence in Johnson, though their article doesn't quite claim the trigger number has been reached completely. So the vote of confidence will be having the pig greasing himself just in case but chances are most other Tories won't dare vote against him. If the challenge fails, it's 18 months before a new no confidence vote will be possible. He'll likely be still there come the next general election. And then we'll need international scrutineers.