Reform, and the death of the Tory Party

[Stevo 666]

Well, net migration has reduced by 50% (Reminder: it was an insane right wing government that ushered in the highest net migration on record). Small boat crossings (a reminder that these are a tiny percentage of net migration) have increased but Starmer has done a deal with the French to try and reduce the crossings. They have scrapped the waste of money that was the Rwanda scheme, hired more staff to tackle the asylum backlog (although appeals backlog has increased) are trying to end or reduce the use of asylum hotels. Skilled worker visas have reduced.

On the economy GDP has increased by 0.5%, minimum wage has increased. So no great shakes but they haven't caused interest rates to shoot up or crashed the economy - so doing better than their predecessors.

Of course to listen to Farage or BadEnoch (why would you do that?) you'd think that Labour had achieved the sum of nothing and were the worst government in history.

At best they have failed to achieve a lot that draws attention. They haven't really done the things you'd expect a Labour government to do, and for a large part are stuck in a willy waving competition with Reform.

A fair bit in there, but as ever perceptions are often as important as the reality.

Re: net migration, most people are more concerned about the illegal part, rightly or wrongly. But that said, apart from the last governments mistakes that allowed the numbers to get to so high, there were also a few significant one offs, such as incomers from Ukraine and Hong Kong. So it was pretty much a certainty that the overall numbers would come down.

I don;'t have an issue with skilled worker visas on the basis that we actually need these people and they make a positive contribution in financial terms. But IMO we need to choose who enters, which is probably what bothers a lot of people about the small boats.

GDP growth is positive - only just - and really not good enough, especially as the Reeves/Starmer mantra was 'we're going for growth' They just didn't say it would be very low.

 

[Ian H]

Perhaps it was his autism. Or a combination. It was hard to follow. But they are both working class, and that's an excuse.

Yeah, but what's the excuse for being working class?

 

[Stevo 666]

It was the same with UKIP back in the mid 2010s though during the coalition time, they took local council seats but come the GE they took one seat. You could argue that they achieved their aim though as they panicked the Tories into the EU referendum and the lurch to the right wing loons gaining power. Reform seem to be doing the same thing i.e. dictating the direction of travel of UK politics without any serious representation in parliament. It's quite a trick to be fair to them.

The key difference now vs the past is that it's highly likely Reform will have some serious representation in the next parliament.

 

[Bromptonaut]

The key difference now vs the past is that it's highly likely Reform will have some serious representation in the next parliament.

They may but the vagaries of FPTP with multiple parties might produce some weird results.

 

[Stevo 666]

Listening to "The News Agents" podcast this morning (Emily Maitlis, Jon Sopel and Lewis Goodall) and they were saying how the Reform Party Conference was a bit of a disaster for Reform. Might have been big (though numbers attending are small compared to the electorate for any Party Conference) and flashy, there were a fair number of stupid, daft & alienating aspects eg RFK's vaccine denier calling Royal Family cancers linked to vaccination, eg Saint Lucy and her "I'm Starmer's political prisoner" (despite her pleading guilty to stirring up racial hatred), eg their stance of Climate Change which apparently is still regarded as important to 60+% of the population. Too much madness for a serious player although BBC didn't like highlighting those aspects.

TBH did not pay much attention to it.

One the point about net zero, I recall reading somewhere that while climate change was important to a significant proportion of the population, unfortunately it was less of a priority than several other key issues - including cost of living, which is impacted by net zero initiatives.

 

[Stevo 666]

They may but the vagaries of FPTP with multiple parties might produce some weird results.

True, I was going off what I saw and heard about the projections of seats in parliament based on current support levels. Although clearly a lot can happen in the meantime.

 

[midlandsgrimpeur]

TBH did not pay much attention to it.

But the point was, will prospective Reform voters and will the batshittery have put people off (or continue to do so longer term if Farage keeps giving the party fringes a platform)?

 

[Pross]

The key difference now vs the past is that it's highly likely Reform will have some serious representation in the next parliament.

UKIP were regularly polling in the high teens and even into the low 20s in 2013 and 2014 but ended up with one seat. Yes, Reform are considerably higher but I don't think it will necessarily equate to a large number of seats. I hope I'm right and not just being optimistic as I think governance of the country would grind to a halt with them in charge and trying to push through stuff that can't be done (then blaming everyone else for their failings). I'm sure they'll end up with quite a few more MPs though.

 

[Pross]

A fair bit in there, but as ever perceptions are often as important as the reality.

Re: net migration, most people are more concerned about the illegal part, rightly or wrongly. But that said, apart from the last governments mistakes that allowed the numbers to get to so high, there were also a few significant one offs, such as incomers from Ukraine and Hong Kong. So it was pretty much a certainty that the overall numbers would come down.

I don;'t have an issue with skilled worker visas on the basis that we actually need these people and they make a positive contribution in financial terms. But IMO we need to choose who enters, which is probably what bothers a lot of people about the small boats.

GDP growth is positive - only just - and really not good enough, especially as the Reeves/Starmer mantra was 'we're going for growth' They just didn't say it would be very low.

Like it or not we also need quite a lot of "unskilled" labour as those jobs are often ones that employers struggle to fill.

 

[BoldonLad]

Whereas to me the ways of interpreting it are:
1) People like you who seem to have difficulty differentiating between a mistake and deliberate wrongdoing but actively dislike her for being working class and outspoken, refuse to even consider the possibility of a mistake, and therefore want her to be burned at the stake as a witch.
2) People who think it is a shame to lose a politician with some honesty and integrity from the front benches even if they don't like her party politics very much.

Honesty and integrity?, wasn’t she implicated in the Lord Ali freebies?

Still no definition of working class ?

If one is born working class, are you working class forever?, does one’s children inherit that status?

 

[spen666]

UKIP were regularly polling in the high teens and even into the low 20s in 2013 and 2014 but ended up with one seat. Yes, Reform are considerably higher but I don't think it will necessarily equate to a large number of seats. I hope I'm right and not just being optimistic as I think governance of the country would grind to a halt with them in charge and trying to push through stuff that can't be done (then blaming everyone else for their failings). I'm sure they'll end up with quite a few more MPs though.

That sounds familiar. I'm sure I've heard that said about a government before and said government then blaming everyone else for their failings

In fact, perhaps multiple times

 

[BoldonLad]

I listened to this as well. At the moment I think a lot of political commentary (and non Reformers amongst us) is relying on the hope that (as Lewis Goodall also said) us Brits are not the same as the MAGA crowd and the batshit conspiracy stuff does not play well with us as it does with many Trump voters. By extension this should put a lot of people off when it actually comes to voting Reform.

I used to feel this way but I am increasingly less convinced. I think as with a lot of Trump voters, many people are 'charmed' by the Farage effect and would vote Reform on the basis of him as leader, regardless of the many unsavoury aspects of the party.

I am beginning to worry, I have a considerable wager with my brother, relating to Nigel.

 

[BoldonLad]

They may but the vagaries of FPTP with multiple parties might produce some weird results.

That is what I am banking on 😊

 

[icowden]

Honesty and integrity?, wasn’t she implicated in the Lord Ali freebies?

Yes. She has singularly failed to employ her relatives, put in expenses to have her moat cleaned or a duck house built, failed to be caught watching porn in the chamber, failed to breach social distancing laws, failed to have an affair with / sexually molest / punch other MPs and has generally stuck with her principles and political beliefs rather than flip-flopping all over the place.

If one is born working class, are you working class forever?, does one’s children inherit that status?

One could philosophise on that for a while. Being born working class presumably does colour one's approach to life, relationships and ways of working, not to mention political beliefs. Many would argue that Rayner is now middle class as her income would put her into that bracket. Others would argue that while money technically elevates your class, it is breeding that makes the change...

 

[Pross]

I reckon 'working class' is often used as a euphemism by many for not having gone through higher education / being perceived as poorly educated.