War with Russia

[Beebo]

View: https://twitter.com/nicktolhurst/status/1500566489115545610?t=gj0Ls3pnEqaXTErKbzlweg&s=19

They were saying on the radio that the really rich ones will be paying lump sum fees years in advance.
But that relies on the school being prepared to accept payment up front as a moral issue.
How many morals do these establishments have?

 

[Rusty Nails]

They were saying on the radio that the really rich ones will be paying lump sum fees years in advance.
But that relies on the school being prepared to accept payment up front as a moral issue.
How many morals do these establishments have?

Take away their charitable status if they are low enough to do this.

 

[Unkraut]

How many morals do these establishments have?

The answer is: the inverse proportion of the level of their fees.

 

[swee'pea99]

Take away their charitable status if they are low enough to do this.

FTFY

 

[dutchguylivingintheuk]

That's just a little while after our complicit blind-eyeing, in helping to finance this murderous invasion right.. ??

Well what Russia/Putin history doesn't imply they are so worried about finance quite the opposite, especially how the war has escalated now, financially they would have stopped and pulled back after the first attempt.

But as with all these things that make a few folks lots of money - like the arms trade for example. .??

Partly our own fault Russia is playing war games for some time, and now Nato/EU/UK are waking up and see if you want to be able to defend yourself you have to invest in the Army. If the demand is high and the supply is therefore lower, the prices go up so yes the arms trade makes more money. (but more as a result of our goverments lack of investing in the army beforehand than anything else. (or Putin has bought a lot of shars in weapong companies before the war..)

If we didn't do it - someone else would right ??

https://www.theguardian.com/comment...uption-uncovered-amid-slow-sanctions-response

Yes that whole donation thing is silly, i mean it;s asking for corruption right?

Ukraine also grows a lot of food for European export.

Or it did, can't imagine that many Ukrainian farmers are concentrating on spring preparations right now.

You would be surprised, there are short video clips going around of ukrianian tracktors pulling tanks that are actually farmers wanting the russian scrap metal out of their fields, so they can get on with their work. (i assume they seek shelter if Russia is cluster bombing again but still.)

That one deranged violent despot can have such a terrible effect on so many lives, beggars belief.

Maybe that's part of it, most of us couldn't comprehend the 'thinking' behind such terrible acts, so couldn't believe this could come to pass.

Yes, that why i said before and i will say it again the Nato need to step up, bring the fight to Russia, because if they wait until Putin reaches an Nato country we will be to late and the fight would be much worse, and potentially we would get an nuclear cloud over europe first because the peanuts thinks is an good idea to shoot at an nuclear reactor. (happened twice already so no longer an incident)
And also he is now bullying europe trough other people sufferings, for example by claiming that anyone that delivers arms or planes to Ukraine will be at war with Russia.. while if the Nato really gets together and tell Russia they are now at war it will be a whole different story. We seen that in the past, Saddam Hoessein backed off to when he realized the US and allies weren't just posturing.(to clarify i mean after the first gulf war but before the 2003 war think the Clinton administraton launched an few rockets up his behind when he was threatening his neighbors again. )

As anyone who has ever had to deal with a bully knows, they are only gonna stop when you make them stop. sure Russia is more dangerous because they have nuclear weapons but as above, they are attacking nuclear power stations now, so we are not safe anyway, the question then becomes are we gonna wait until he ethnically cleansed all of Ukraine or or we going to stop him from advancing further? i mean if the Nato is established for something than this is the number one reason.

 

[Deleted member 121]

I agree, NATO do need to wake up. I don't think it is helpful having our "top" General claiming that the Russian Army is "decimated".... It isn't. For fear of being ridiculed for having the word "fact" at the end of my sentence, but that is an actual fact.

The only thing the Russians have underestimated is logistics as i alluded to earlier. Once they iron this out they'll be able to move huge amounts of armour across vast distances in a timely fashion. Then all bets are off... This is basically how Germany captured huge swathes of Europe in WW2, Whilst the Allies were farting about in denial, digging trenches, holes and building huge concrete fortifications with underground bases, only for Germany to march straight on through without even stopping to have their passports stamped by the friendly guards... I don't want war, i don't want Nuclear war, I don't want any of this like the next normal person, but wake up we must because despite everything up with politics lately, i quite like having the ability to vote and having free and open discussions anywhere i choose...

 

[icowden]

They were saying on the radio that the really rich ones will be paying lump sum fees years in advance.
But that relies on the school being prepared to accept payment up front as a moral issue.

Depends on the establishment. But if the education has already been paid for in a lump (not uncommon as private schools will offer a discount for a lump payment), then the money is already in the bank account. Where it might get tricky is if they can't pay for the "extras" - music tuition, school trips, fee increase top ups etc.

There is a slight moral issue for the school as well, as they will be reluctant to interrupt a child's education. That said, many parents are more than happy to to that on a whim anyway.

 

[matticus]

but wake up we must because despite everything up with politics lately, i quite like having the ability to vote and having free and open discussions anywhere i choose..

I can't disagree with your sentiment, but think you might be over-egging Putin's expansion plans somewhat!

 

[mudsticks]

You would be surprised, there are short video clips going around of ukrianian tracktors pulling tanks that are actually farmers wanting the russian scrap metal out of their fields, so they can get on with their work. (i assume they seek shelter if Russia is cluster bombing again but still.)

OK so the best show of solidarity i can make is to get on my own tractor and get on with some cultivations - we still need to eat.
I've got a decent supply of rye-corn and lots of sunflower seeds saved from last years crop - i don't even have to extract any tanks first .

And then beyond sending a few quids to sensible places - and hassling any relevant politicos to get on with welcoming - yes actually welcoming more refugees i don't see what else any 'ordinary' person is able to do ...

 

[Fab Foodie]

I'm increasingly becoming convinced that we should go ALL-IN with sanctions: stop buying their gas, everything.
The experts* say Russia needs our gas payments more than we need their gas. Sure it might be painful for a while - at least if Putin plays hard - but worth it in the long-term to stop Russia basically crapping all over us until Putin leaves this plane (or longer). And the same for every other aspect of trade.

I was told about the world needing 40% of its grain from Russian - well that doesn't change anything! Carbs are evil anyway.

Whilst it's admirable intent, thanks to the interconnectedness of things, we and our industries need a lot of raw materials from both Ukraine and Russia. The pain will impact all of Europe in one way or another.
Furthermore, a lot of Russians are anti-putin/pro-west/pro-Ukraine, we don't want to alienate them either....

 

[matticus]

Furthermore, a lot of Russians are anti-putin/pro-west/pro-Ukraine, we don't want to alienate them either....

So why are we hurting them indiscriminately now?

This is my point: either use sanctions (which are peaceful, but slow and indiscriminate), or don't. But if you do, why pi55 about when clearly Putin wages war regardless?

 

[Unkraut]

I agree, NATO do need to wake up.

The Ukrainian ambassador to Germany was on the telly last night and claimed that the Ukrainians have already destroyed more Russian tanks than remain in the entire German army. That the state of military preparedness on the part of Germany was allowed to deteriorate to such a level is in part due to the efforts of one Ursula von der Leyen as part of successive govts but particular Merkel cutting funding. It really is pathetic to see politicians now bemoaning the fact that after the fall of the Soviet Union 'we thought there would never be war in Europe again'.

Whilst the Allies were farting about in denial, ...

This very colourful expression that deserves further public attention aptly describes western European policy towards Russia since about 2008 at the latest.

I watched David Starkey for the first and possibly last time pontificating on this, but have to admit he is right in that Russia is strong and the West is weak - the dependence on Russian energy is too great and cannot be changed at short notice. Putin has enough money stashed away to carry on without western income from exports for quite a while, whereas an ban on imports to the West would have a dramatic effect in a short time. Putin has been outlining his plans for the Ukraine in speeches over the last four years or so, there is no excuse for western politicians to say they have been taken by surprise. It seems to me the output of rhetoric and hot air from western politicians is in inverse proportion to their actual ability to do anything to change the situation. I suspect Putin is only too well aware of this.

 

[stowie]

I watched David Starkey for the first and possibly last time pontificating on this, but have to admit he is right in that Russia is strong and the West is weak - the dependence on Russian energy is too great and cannot be changed at short notice. Putin has enough money stashed away to carry on without western income from exports for quite a while, whereas an ban on imports to the West would have a dramatic effect in a short time. Putin has been outlining his plans for the Ukraine in speeches over the last four years or so, there is no excuse for western politicians to say they have been taken by surprise. It seems to me the output of rhetoric and hot air from western politicians is in inverse proportion to their actual ability to do anything to change the situation. I suspect Putin is only too well aware of this.

I listened to an interesting podcast piece around the sanctions, and it could be that the EU/US have played it very smart if correct.

Russia indeed has a lot of foreign currency reserves ($800bn+ I think). But these are abroad. As the Ruble sinks due to people getting out of the currency en-masse, the central bank would normally convert these reserves and buy up Rubles to mitigate the currency slide. Russia's reserves are predominately in easily convertible assets (government bonds etc), so it looks like this was Russia's plan. Except they didn't factor in the type of sanctions being imposed which has essentially removed their access to a significant portion of these reserves located in regions that are imposing the sanctions.

From the commentary, this is a big deal. The central bank has lost its core mechanism to stabilise the currency which is now in free-fall.

The smart play was to decouple the energy sector in order to keep all countries in the EU united alongside the US.

Although the EU needs the energy, Russia arguable needs the hard currency more since most other avenues are closed to it.

It was argued that shutting off the energy revenue would destroy Russia's economy and send the country into chaos which would not be good, but is something the EU/US are holding back on as an option.

The sanctions are hurting already. I noted that Aeroflot are effectively limited to domestic flights only. 50% of their fleet is leased - most from companies based in the EU. Much of the fleet is Airbus or Boeing. What does this mean? Aeroflot will need to return near half their fleet as the leasing companies have to cancel the contracts (if they don't return they will never lease a single aircraft again). They cannot fly into EU airspace. Which is a problem since their major maintenance facility is located in Germany. Airbus and Boeing are no longer sending spares - airline repair centres will only carry a few weeks of product. Plus Aeroflot and Russian repair centres no longer have access to online diagnostics and manuals. Not to mention the difficulty in payments and getting insurance. No country would allow airlines to operate in their airspace without insurance. So, Aerflot are limited to domestic (and Belarus). Until their aircraft get grounded through lack of maintenance or returned to the lease companies. Even Russian built aircraft are not immune - they have critical avionics equipment from EU/US based companies and will begin to get grounded as essential repairs are not able to be performed.

Of course, none of this negates the fact that the EU needs to work out a sustainable and secure energy policy, and fast. One hope in all this mess is that the EU end up accelerating renewable and even possibly nuclear energy plans to lessen energy dependence on unstable nations.

 

[Milzy]

I agree, NATO do need to wake up. I don't think it is helpful having our "top" General claiming that the Russian Army is "decimated".... It isn't. For fear of being ridiculed for having the word "fact" at the end of my sentence, but that is an actual fact.

The only thing the Russians have underestimated is logistics as i alluded to earlier. Once they iron this out they'll be able to move huge amounts of armour across vast distances in a timely fashion. Then all bets are off... This is basically how Germany captured huge swathes of Europe in WW2, Whilst the Allies were farting about in denial, digging trenches, holes and building huge concrete fortifications with underground bases, only for Germany to march straight on through without even stopping to have their passports stamped by the friendly guards... I don't want war, i don't want Nuclear war, I don't want any of this like the next normal person, but wake up we must because despite everything up with politics lately, i quite like having the ability to vote and having free and open discussions anywhere i choose...

I always believed what you said to be true. Recently I watched a film about Neville Chamberlain who has often been seen as weak. In the film it makes out that he knew we weren’t ready to stand up to them & he bought us time to prepare. Always different perspectives huh? 🤔

 

[Ian H]

...a film about Neville Chamberlain...

Widely derided as tendentious & misleading.