War with Russia

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Completely agree. Russia is not alone by a very long stretch in subverting nation or regional autonomy. The cold war superpowers have a very long history of this in particular. My wife is from South America and believe me, the stripping of agency during this period is burned into the national consciousness. But playing the game of "who has been the bigger bastard" is not massively constructive. Interviews with an FInnish ex-Prime Minister were illuminating to me about how Finland's neutrality came at considerable national cost and the concept of "Finlandisation" of other nations is actually somewhat offensive to him.

Well, firstly this is a political opinion board. It would be quite an empty place if we had to simply defer to expert opinions without commentary. Secondly, there has been much written about NATO expansion and its influence on Putin's actions from both opinions - I don't have to go far to read political and diplomatic experts that disagree with your opinion either. I could ask the same question back, but it doesn't really get us very far.

Your posts do challenge my opinions and thoughts, and I am glad for that. It has made me realise that I am conflating two questions, and they are not quite the same thing. The two questions being

1) Did Putin invade Ukraine because of NATOs historic expansion to the East?
2) Consequently is NATO "to blame" for Putin's actions?

I say no to both. I struggle with the opinions that answer yes to question 2 much more than question 1. It strips away agency from nation states and citizens, or it assumes that Putin's actions are in defense of Russia's borders which is nonsensical. At worst it justifies Putin's actions. Putin has a long history of intervention in nations, from the brutal war in Syria, to Ukraine, to Georgia, and then to the tech offensives Russia has been engaged in for years. Hell, this is the regime that engaged in a chemical attack in the UK on UK citizens. That surely shows a certain "modus operandi"?

Putin is in legacy mode, and he wants his legacy to be Russia having profound influence over Europe and especially its neighbours. He is an expansionist who may not want the USSR back but sure wants its influence on the world stage.

A question back to you. Finland now looks certain to join NATO. Is this NATO expansionism "poking the bear" and consequently to blame for whatever Putin does next? Are you against it? Should NATO say no in order to placate "the bear"? (sorry, that is three questions!!)

I am sorry - conflating those two questions is the least of your problem - think much of what you say is non sequitur.

For example, you say you struggle with whether NATO is '"to blame" for Putin's actions' because:
"It strips away agency from nation states and citizens, or it assumes that Putin's actions are in defense of Russia's borders which is nonsensical. At worst it justifies Putin's actions."

Apologies in advance for the long response:

1) Why must blaming NATO justify Putin's actions? Can't both be guilty of their respective actions? This is not a team sport, or Hollywood production.

2) NATO's complicity is clear irrespective of Putin's subsequent actions. NATO leaders giving, and then betraying the "not one inch" assurance, which would have provided Russia a significant security buffer and sphere of influence (which you admit US secure and guard jealously for themselves) is proven by declassified records.

3) Ukraine's "agency" to join (as opposed to apply to join) NATO was not fundamentally compromised by Putin as you say, but by NATO leaders' assurances in 1990s that it won't happen. If Ukraine's agency was that important to NATO, such assurances wouldn't have been given in the first place.

4) Separately and importantly, those assurances were made to facilitate Russian acceptance of the reunification of Germany and the end of USSR, giving NATO easy victory of the Cold War, and Ukraine their independence no less - i.e. both NATO and Ukraine have been major beneficiaries of those assurances. Sure, since Ukraine never gave those assurances, they are free to apply to join. But, and it is a big but, by US inviting Ukraine to join in 2008, and then refused to keep their end of the bargain by confirming never to accept Ukraine joining meant US/NATO must bear a major responsibility for the results - even a child should understand why the Russians feel cheated, and why numerous Western diplomats/officials, entirely reasonably, predicted and warned against NATO expansion, and blamed US/NATO for the resulting mess.

Can you give a cogent reason why US shouldn't have confirmed to Russia in early February that Ukraine will not be accepted to join NATO, given it would have been morally correct to keep to their end of the bargain, likely avoided the bloodshed and destruction, and the starving and chaos around the world that are still to come?

As an aside, what would you have done, if you were Putin, to stay US's hands in the Feb 2014 coup resulting in a hostile Ukrainian government, to stop NATO members arming them since, and to make NATO stick to their end of the bargain?

5) The most serious problem with your argument is actually crystalised when you say 'playing the game of "who has been the bigger bastard" is not massively constructive.' That might be true in many situations, but not this, when the biggest bastard on the planet happens to be knee deep in causing and indeed sustaining/prolonging this proxy war (not to mention a long history of other wars), from literally the opposite side of the planet, so unlike Russia's, their national security was never even remotely threatened.

Yet, the US are cast in the West on the side of the "good", for no better reason than they are seen to be on the side of victims on the ground, while in reality without their complicity the victims most likely wouldn't be victims in the first place. The end result, is as if realpolitik (or the law of the jungle) is accepted while exercised by the biggest bastard and their poodles, but not by Russia and Russian actions must be morally and severely judged. In case you are unaware, this sentiment is not generally shared outside the West (which represents only c12% of global population) - they could hardly not notice the blatant hypocrisy of "Team USA".

Does it really matter to be a 24-carat hypocrite in this case? Using the same playbook of insidious actions and demonisation and mass media, the biggest bastard's principal foreign policy objective, notwithstanding this war, remains the containment of China, which not only is an ocean away, they have not fired a single shot across or beyond their borders for over 40 years. Does China have plans to invade US? Or indeed any other sovereign state on earth? Being already the world's largest economy in PPP terms, China being so "contained" is widely considered the biggest risk by far for WW3 - not satisfied with China's genuine desire for increasing trade/integration for ultimately a peaceful reunification with Taiwan, and well aware Taiwan independence being China's firm red line (Taiwan being a province of China is a fact officially accepted by Taiwan, US and 177 other national governments), the biggest bastard is arming Taiwan despite Chinese protests. How is that different to Russia arming Ukrainians in Donbas? What can possibly go wrong?

Instead of answering your questions on Finland/Sweden, which are probably moot given Turkey's objection plus Russia likely doesn't consider Finland/Sweden hostile, what I would suggest, is if one must bring morality into great powers discussions, it is necessary to consider carefully what if the shoe was on the other foot. After all, it is immoral to be a hypocrite.
 

Rusty Nails

Country Member
It is true that sadly there has been lack of faith in this ongoing US vs THEM battle of the past 30 years,... but....... the outbreaks of violence and invasion across borders in this battle, resulting in thousands of deaths of innocent civilians as well as soldiers have come from one side. Russia's borders have not actually been broken or threatened in this time by NATO or the West, except in the mind of their leader(s).
There is no trust between Russia and the West but no amount of bad faith in negotiations is worth the death and damage that Putin is prepared to cause, and this is the reason why formerly neutral countries such as Finland and Sweden now want to join NATO.... for their own safety and not as a base from which to threaten Russia.
It is ironic that this unnecessary war could now increase NATO's presence along the Russian border.
 

the snail

Active Member
...

Can you give a cogent reason why US shouldn't have confirmed to Russia in early February that Ukraine will not be accepted to join NATO, given it would have been morally correct to keep to their end of the bargain,..

there was no bargain, and Gorbachev accepted at the time of the breakup of the soviet union that independent states should be free to enter into whichever alliances they wanted, so you are basically repeating Putin's rewriting of history. Anyway, Putin has conclusively demonstrated why all of Russia's western neighbours should join NATO asap
 
there was no bargain, and Gorbachev accepted at the time of the breakup of the soviet union that independent states should be free to enter into whichever alliances they wanted, so you are basically repeating Putin's rewriting of history.

Your assertion is the exact opposite of contemporaneous records that have been declassified and gone public. If you have evidence to the contrary please provide it.

Putin has conclusively demonstrated why all of Russia's western neighbours should join NATO asap

This assertion has been repeated by many here, but it is fallacious, because it presupposes the conclusion by circular reasoning.

In case you still fail to understand the fatal flaw, your assertion is analogous to:

"The boy needs to be caged 24/7, because despite that he still attacks people."

It is logically spurious because it precludes the very real possibility that the boy attacks people only because he is caged. Worse, the assertion enters farcical territory if the boy has threatened to attack people if caged.

HTH.
 

Rusty Nails

Country Member
And the boy is not a young boy but a state that has existed for 100 years since the revolution and still sees violence as the way to sort out its problems with its neighbours
Think of NATO as an ASBO or neighbourhood watch scheme to protect those neighbours rather than a cage.
Analogies are fun but are not reality.
 

FishFright

Well-Known Member
And the boy is not a young boy but a state that has existed for 100 years since the revolution and still sees violence as the way to sort out its problems with its neighbours
Think of NATO as an ASBO or neighbourhood watch scheme to protect those neighbours rather than a cage.
Analogies are fun but are not reality.

More like 1000 years of it. This is business as usual for a large power.
 
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Milzy

Milzy

Well-Known Member
It is true that sadly there has been lack of faith in this ongoing US vs THEM battle of the past 30 years,... but....... the outbreaks of violence and invasion across borders in this battle, resulting in thousands of deaths of innocent civilians as well as soldiers have come from one side. Russia's borders have not actually been broken or threatened in this time by NATO or the West, except in the mind of their leader(s).
There is no trust between Russia and the West but no amount of bad faith in negotiations is worth the death and damage that Putin is prepared to cause, and this is the reason why formerly neutral countries such as Finland and Sweden now want to join NATO.... for their own safety and not as a base from which to threaten Russia.
It is ironic that this unnecessary war could now increase NATO's presence along the Russian border.

It’s not ironic really, it’s all part of the usa’s big plan. Using all the smaller European countries as porns while they sit back thousands of miles away. They get more power whilst making more money along with the U.K. selling arms. Putin has been played like a fiddle & I’m still surprised he took the bait.
 
It’s not ironic really, it’s all part of the usa’s big plan. Using all the smaller European countries as porns while they sit back thousands of miles away. They get more power whilst making more money along with the U.K. selling arms. Putin has been played like a fiddle & I’m still surprised he took the bait.

That Joe Biden, eh? Doddering old fool on the outside, 3D chess grand master in the inside. Genius.
 
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Milzy

Milzy

Well-Known Member
That Joe Biden, eh? Doddering old fool on the outside, 3D chess grand master in the inside. Genius.

You would think by now, not only Russia but the US would realize you cannot change a foreign government without the support of that nations population. If the people don’t want you there, you will fail with nation building. Even nations with dictatorial leader ship do not appreciate meddling from foreign powers. It doesn’t matter how much military hardware you possess if the population is against you. You have to change the hearts and minds of the people before you can change the government. Hopefully, by now, after 20 years of war and very little to show for it, the US has learned its lesson. And that’s what Russia is currently facing. They are destined to lose just as the US did in the Middle East.
 

the snail

Active Member
Your assertion is the exact opposite of contemporaneous records that have been declassified and gone public. If you have evidence to the contrary please provide it.



This assertion has been repeated by many here, but it is fallacious, because it presupposes the conclusion by circular reasoning.

In case you still fail to understand the fatal flaw, your assertion is analogous to:

"The boy needs to be caged 24/7, because despite that he still attacks people."

It is logically spurious because it precludes the very real possibility that the boy attacks people only because he is caged. Worse, the assertion enters farcical territory if the boy has threatened to attack people if caged.

HTH.

You really are a condescending prick. HTH.
 
You really are a condescending prick. HTH.
Given I only invited you to substantiate your assertion, either you can't grasp the simple concept of a debate, or you can't handle the truth, which is it?

Think of NATO as an ASBO or neighbourhood watch scheme to protect those neighbours rather than a cage.
Analogies are fun but are not reality.

IF Nato was led by a less hubristic, hegemonic and warmongering country, then you might have a point, but then Europe and Russia would have coexisted happily and the war likely would never have happened.

Instead, the "Defender of freedom, human rights, and rules-based order" leading NATO is the bloodiest bully around, in league with bone-saw autocrats and genocidal apartheid lackeys alike. It is currently in a proxy war that is causing the worst humanitarian crisis globally, and it is not even Ukraine.

A mafioso, stirring up trouble wherever he goes, causing the weak of mind and blind of sight to go to him for protection is probably closer to the truth. Trouble is, force of nature and lack of self-awareness is causing his dominance to wane, and which is making him even more dangerous by the day.
 
IF Nato was led by a less hubristic, hegemonic and warmongering country, then you might have a point, but then Europe and Russia would have coexisted happily and the war likely would never have happened.
Chechnya, Georgia, South Osthesia all Russian made conflicts with the first one a mere genocide only to help Putin in power. 38 ex russian oliarchs, ex fsb etc. have been murdered in Europe in the past years, sometimes even with an nuclear agent to give an extra Russian signature.
Your hate for the US makes you blind for what Russia is doing, and what they would have been doing without Nato. Think we should be wondering if there still was a Poland, Georgia etc. and if they where they would be merely vasal states like Belarus.
And what would then be Putin's next war if he needed popularity?



Instead, the "Defender of freedom, human rights, and rules-based order" leading NATO is the bloodiest bully around, in league with bone-saw autocrats and genocidal apartheid lackeys alike. It is currently in a proxy war that is causing the worst humanitarian crisis globally, and it is not even Ukraine.
You know just what you say when your presented with evidence the other way, you links suck, they contain opinionated nonsense they you present as facts.
You start by the assumption Nato is lead by the US which is wrong, that's why nato had no involvement in Iraq, Afganistan, Libya and Syria's wars and many other conflicts.(yes nato has had missions in some of there territories but not a invasion/attacking one) Us might be the biggest contributor off troops/material that doesn't make then leading.


A mafioso, stirring up trouble wherever he goes, causing the weak of mind and blind of sight to go to him for protection is probably closer to the truth. Trouble is, force of nature and lack of self-awareness is causing his dominance to wane, and which is making him even more dangerous by the day.
oh youre talking about Putin again?
 
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