General Election 2024....

[monkers]

And why did those "former Tory voters" become " former Tory voters"?

Logical error on your part. We aren't going to agree on this, and my entire point is that it doesn't warrant discussion, so that's my last word.

For any number of reasons. Just one reason being because they still support Johnson. There's no logical error in knowing that, or that the Tories damage the Labour vote by smearing and negative campaigning. It's what they always do.

There's a new Yougov poll today. It shows Labour losing two points already. I suppose it can be argued that 2% is just statistical accuracy, or that other factors are at play.

However shy Tories just need to be persuaded to turn out to vote by the Tory vote, or otherwise the Tory rhetoric of Starmer being too dangerous to vote for might persuade them to vote for Reform.

 

[multitool]

For any number of reasons. Just one reason being because they still support Johnson. There's no logical error in knowing that, or that the Tories damage the Labour vote by smearing and negative campaigning. It's what they always do.

No Tory is likely to start voting Labour because Johnson was kicked out.

The Tory voters moving to Labour will be because of Johnsons premiership, and not his expulsion.

There's a new Yougov poll today. It shows Labour losing two points already. I suppose it can be argued that 2% is just statistical accuracy, or that other factors are at play.

Losing 2% from what? The previous yougov poll? Its irrelevant. What matters are trends over time.

However shy Tories just need to be persuaded to turn out to vote by the Tory vote

Fair point. But I dont believe that disaffected Tories will be swayed by Johnson's reds-under-the-bed bullshìt

, or otherwise the Tory rhetoric of Starmer being too dangerous to vote for might persuade them to vote for Reform

Exactly. And that favours Labour.

 

[monkers]

Exactly. And that favours Labour.

Not necessarily. If the negative campaigning is successful, it could turn people who intended to vote Labour towards reform. If that's Johnson's intention, then you can expect to see much more talk about immigration.

Shy Tories might become emboldened to become defectors.

Otherwise the exodus of Tories from parliament might persuade shy Tories to give the Tories another chance.

The election outcome is far from settled; which is not to say that I don't think that Labour won't get a majority, but Tory annihilation is not yet guaranteed.

My point however is simply this, to ignore the influence of Johnson is a mistake.

 

[multitool]

Just seen a leaked list of Tory MPs planning to resign

(yeah, bit niche, I know)

 

[multitool]

6 of them are Grant Schapps

 

[albion]

Nice of Boreish Johnson to essentially endorse Starmer.

 

[multitool]

Another hapless photo op

 

[monkers]

This is exactly what I've been talking about.

The stand out points are:

Conservatives leading Labour by just1%.

The incumbent is the daughter of local TV celebrity Fred Dinenage and been MP since 2010 previously a minister and now a Dame (husband is a previous Tory MP and now in the Lords).

Large military presence tends to favour Tories.

The Labour candidate is unannounced.

Reform are already stronger than Lem Sips or Greens at 15.4%.

Shy Tory presence predicted to be high as shown as turn out predicted to be 6.9% lower.

Swing to Labour required is 0.5% plus one to win.

Greens have always hencefar achieved a vote below the prediction, both in Gosport and nationally. This is likely due to ambition to remove the incumbent Tory.

If you was the Tory campaign manager, what would you be doing for your candidate here in these circumstances?

 

[multitool]

How?

 

[monkers]

How?

HOW!

 

[icowden]

Conservatives leading Labour by just1%.
Large military presence tends to favour Tories.
If you was the Tory campaign manager, what would you be doing for your candidate here in these circumstances?

The key point though is that Gosport is a massively safe seat for the Conservatives. It's not one that's going to make a huge difference, but oneof the ones that makes the difference between there being 35 Tories left in parliament and 90 or so.

I entirely agree with you that we should be rid of FPTP and whipped politics. If you can't get your MPs to support your bill, it shouldn't be passed.

 

[monkers]

The key point though is that Gosport is a massively safe seat for the Conservatives. It's not one that's going to make a huge difference, but oneof the ones that makes the difference between there being 35 Tories left in parliament and 90 or so.

I entirely agree with you that we should be rid of FPTP and whipped politics. If you can't get your MPs to support your bill, it shouldn't be passed.

It was a massively safe seat; even after the Duck House Blues incident, but not any more. The Tories have lost control of the council to the Lem Sips. Electoral Calculus has predicted that the gap is now at just 1%. This is exactly the kind of seat where negative campaigning from Johnson could influence the outcome.

 

[Bromptonaut]

Viggers came within a few thousand of losing it in 2005 when Labour were closer to his heels than in 97.

Have the boundaries changed?

 

[monkers]

Viggers came within a few thousand of losing it in 2005 when Labour were closer to his heels than in 97.

Have the boundaries changed?

Gosport is a peninsula with a strip of land called 'the strategic gap' between it and neighbouring Fareham. This would make it less susceptible to change than other seats. The local election boundaries have changed but the parliamentary boundary is the same.

It's a bit of a weird one since Gosport is a parliamentary constituency that takes in two of the local election wards (Hillhead and Stubbington) of Fareham. On the other hand, Fareham is changing boundary this time around. It's been held by Braverman who looks set to retain her seat.

I've met with Dinenage and Braverman a number of times, and seen them at Hustings. Dinenage is a script learner with an ability to rattle off scripts at high speed but with no sincerity. Braverman more tends to make up stuff on the hoof and makes unpleasant remarks about groups of people while getting her 'facts' wildly wrong, more accurately I might say that she substitutes her ill-informed opinions in place of facts.

 

[cookiemonster]

@multitool This’ll interest you.😂