General Election 2024....
- Thread starter Fab Foodie
- Start date
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Ian H
Legendary Member
Down here it's a very tight competition between Foord the sober LibDem (who ousted tractor-porn Parish) and Jupp the smirking Tory.
Young Jake (Labour) has run a muted campaign; we had one small b&w flyer through the door. But it was amusing to be stopped in the street by his Tory father, upset that he'd have to vote Labour for the first time in his life to support his son.
I'm hoping Reform pick up just enough votes to help dislodge Jupp, but they're not making much impression that I can see.
Prediction: a smaller Labour majority than most forecast.
Earnest hope: that Farage fails to win Clacton.
Young Jake (Labour) has run a muted campaign; we had one small b&w flyer through the door. But it was amusing to be stopped in the street by his Tory father, upset that he'd have to vote Labour for the first time in his life to support his son.
I'm hoping Reform pick up just enough votes to help dislodge Jupp, but they're not making much impression that I can see.
Prediction: a smaller Labour majority than most forecast.
Earnest hope: that Farage fails to win Clacton.
BoldonLad
Old man on a bike. Not a member of a clique.
- Location
- South Tyneside
Yes, it is noticeable that given the almost certain Labour/Starmer victory, the stock market is doing OK.
Beebo
Veteran
I think you are right. I think it will be an 80-90 majority. Not the crazy 150 being predicted.
And I have absolutely no issue with Labour doing very little in Clacton. Anything to keep Farage out works for me. So keep the Tory vote as high as possible.
Does anyone know how Galloway is getting on? I hope his time in parliament is very short too.
AuroraSaab
Squire
I think it will be around 100. Can't see it being the landslide some suggest. I'd rather Labour had just said that Clacton was an exceptional circumstance this time and that's why they were ending the campaign.
Galloway will likely be re elected because of his stance on Gaza. It's too early for disillusionment on his competency as an MP to have set in. Very quiet in the media though The Guardian caught up with him in June:
https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.th...george-galloway-100-days-rochdale-gaza-tiktok
Galloway will likely be re elected because of his stance on Gaza. It's too early for disillusionment on his competency as an MP to have set in. Very quiet in the media though The Guardian caught up with him in June:
https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.th...george-galloway-100-days-rochdale-gaza-tiktok
deptfordmarmoset
Über Member
I'll go for a very...er, conservative guess of 70-80. There's far more to vote against than there is to vote for, and many will think it's already a done deal, so I'm guessing it'll be a very low turnout. Still don't know where Sue Purmah-Jorrity is standing.
icowden
Legendary Member
There are also quite a few seats where the Tories will win because Labour and the Lib Dems won't do a deal. My neighbouring Spelthorne is in a 3 way race for example.
Beebo
Veteran
I bet he will regret his decisions later in life.
glasgowcyclist
Über Member
deptfordmarmoset
Über Member
She's Tat. The other's Tit.
icowden
Legendary Member
Find out, this time on Friday!
Electoral Calculus seems to have collapsed under the strain of people wanting to look at poll results. Most polls are giving Labour over 420 seats in total. Survation are going for 484 with the Tories getting 64 - only 3 more seats than the Lib Dems. They say their predictions are accurate to within 14 seats if they get the distribution right, otherwise 15+ seats.
YouGov have 431 Labour, 102 Con, 72 LIb Dem
More In Common have 430 Labour, 126 Con, 52 Lib Dem
FocalData have 444 Labour, 108 Con, 57 Lib Dem
All the Tories have left is scare tactics because they have found the word "supermajority" and think it sounds scary.
